Tuesday, January 31, 2012

A Look Back: Animated, Documentary and Foreign Language Features

In the Animation category, I correctly predicted 4 out of 5 nominees (80%), and could have done even better if I had trusted my instincts that the weak year for American animation might lead to two foreign animation nominees, and paid more attention to those who cautioned that the motion capture in Spielberg’s Tintin might not go over with the animation branch. I had left the film outside of my top 5 for most of the year, but when it was deemed eligible for submission in November I relented. In the Foreign Language category itself, I correctly predicted 4 out of 5 nominees (80%), with the fifth slot going to the film that I had placed at rank 6 (my first runner up). For Documentaries, I correctly predicted 2 out of 5 nominees (40%), and my previously predicted winner (Project Nim) didn’t even make the list.

In terms of “Close Scores” (having the eventual nominees ranked high in my list of contenders), the animated category showed higher scores much earlier, as might be expected given the higher profile of these films. The decision of the documentary branch to snub most of the populist favorites meant that my score didn’t rise until the short list had been announced. However, two of the eventual nominees did win prizes at last year’s Sundance festival, so I hope that by paying more attention to those trends I can score better next year. The foreign films received a boost after Cannes (again as expected), and two of them premiered at Berlin, suggesting that next year's race may begin in earnest in a few weeks. The dip in the purple line in November represents when I moved Israel’s Footnote out of the top 5 (but still in the top 7), as new (but apparently untested) contenders came online.

What I predicted correctly, and when I came close.

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
For even more information on how I am doing in each race, and eventually an analysis of each individual race, be sure to check out my Track Record Page.
See my predictions for Animated Features, Documentary Features and Foreign Language Features.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  

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