Monday, January 16, 2012

Golden Globes Aftermath

In the aftermath of the Golden Globes, I have made a few adjustments to my predictions, most of which are actually returns to the status quo rather than shockers. The moral of the story is that I should stick with my gut next year, and remember that the early December critics lists often push slightly more independent than the bigger awards.

In the Supporting Actress category, I had previously listed Octavia Spencer in the predicted winner position. However, in December it looked as if Jessica Chastain was picking up momentum for her body of work this year, so I briefly flirted with the idea that the big awards might follow suit. Yesterday’s win solidifies Spencer in the top position, and reminds me to stick with my instincts. I also added two supporting performances from The Iron Lady to my long list of contenders.

In the Lead Actress category, Meryl Streep had been sitting in my second place spot since April, but I dropped her slightly in December due to the number of independent critic nods that Michelle Williams was picking up. Here again, I would have been better to stick with my earlier predictions, and not get carried away with mid-season lists. This is perhaps the closest race to call at the moment, with Streep, Williams and Davis all in serious contention.

On the one had, Meryl has won eight Golden Globes, so we know that these don’t always translate into Oscar winnings. On the other hand, this is the first time that she has won in the drama category (as opposed to comedy, supporting or tv) since... wait for it... Sophie’s Choice, where she won her last Oscar! Still, her acceptance speech felt as if she was begging the Academy to reward Viola Davis instead, mentioning her twice. The Oscars also have a history of skipping great performances like in The Iron Lady, and then trying to make up for them in future years by rewarding lesser works. I’ll be watching the Screen Actors Guild closely to see what will happen, but for now I am ranking Davis first, Streep second and Williams third. Further down in the contender listings, Adepero Oduye and Mia Wasikowska both were honored with shout-outs from Meryl, and consequently I have moved them both up within my top fifteen.

The Globes split their picture and director awards, which is something that the Academy may very well end up doing as well. For the moment, I have The Artist, Hugo and The Descendants  at the top of these races, so I am going to stick to my current predictions and not adjust these. If I did make any changes here, it would probably be to move The Iron Lady up quite a bit, on the theory that it could easily ride Meryl’s coattails to the top. I will mention that Uggie the dog’s presence on the stage at the awards was a good move on behalf of The Artist’s campaign team.

I was hoping that “The Living Proof” would win best song last night, and neither Mary J. Blige nor Elton John looked amused as Madonna stole the show with her “Masterpiece.” I’m not changing my recently updated song predictions though, as I still think that the likely best picture nomination for The Help will push Blige into the lead.

Woody Allen’s win wasn’t a surprise, and I will be doing a long overdue update for both screenplay categories in the next few days.

Clooney, Plummer, Bource, Tintin and A Separation already sit at the top of my predictions, and Dujardin and Williams were the expected winners in the comedy/musical categories, so I’m not changing any of those at the moment.

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  


  1. While the Oscar nominees are likely to be utterly predictable, I'm very excited for the ceremony itself given that so many races are so close that it's tough to decide who is ahead of whom. Nice recap!

  2. @Castor, You're right about the nominees. BAFTA shook things up a little bit, but more by who they snubbed than who they included.

    I'm still hopeful for a few last minute surprises all around!

  3. Madonna won the best song just because she is Madonna..The Best Actress race is probably the most exciting one as anyone could win..just to remind you that Michelle Williams was the one that won almost all the critics awards ,although I do want Meryl Streep to win as she deserved it but if not her I reckon it should be Williams ...out of the topic mate: are you aware of the film Perks of Being a Wallflower,the novel which it has been based is had cult's the type of a movie that can be really good or really reason i think it could be a good film like Juno mainly for Mae Whitman who is so good in playing a rebel and the star value of Emma Watson

  4. @F.Franklin, I can definitely see a scenario where Williams steals the show. Really any of the three of them at this point could take it, and be totally justified.

    I have heard about Perks, and currently have it on my long list of predictions for Adapted Screenplay for next year. (ranked 34 right now). My hope is to turn to the 85th Oscars in the period between nominations and the awards ceremony, so I will definitely be paying even more attention to that film in just a little over a week!