In the aftermath of the Golden Globes, I have made a few adjustments to my predictions, most of which are actually returns to the status quo rather than shockers. The moral of the story is that I should stick with my gut next year, and remember that the early December critics lists often push slightly more independent than the bigger awards.
In the Supporting Actress category, I had previously listed Octavia Spencer in the predicted winner position. However, in December it looked as if Jessica Chastain was picking up momentum for her body of work this year, so I briefly flirted with the idea that the big awards might follow suit. Yesterday’s win solidifies Spencer in the top position, and reminds me to stick with my instincts. I also added two supporting performances from The Iron Lady to my long list of contenders.
In the Lead Actress category, Meryl Streep had been sitting in my second place spot since April, but I dropped her slightly in December due to the number of independent critic nods that Michelle Williams was picking up. Here again, I would have been better to stick with my earlier predictions, and not get carried away with mid-season lists. This is perhaps the closest race to call at the moment, with Streep, Williams and Davis all in serious contention.
On the one had, Meryl has won eight Golden Globes, so we know that these don’t always translate into Oscar winnings. On the other hand, this is the first time that she has won in the drama category (as opposed to comedy, supporting or tv) since... wait for it... Sophie’s Choice, where she won her last Oscar! Still, her acceptance speech felt as if she was begging the Academy to reward Viola Davis instead, mentioning her twice. The Oscars also have a history of skipping great performances like in The Iron Lady, and then trying to make up for them in future years by rewarding lesser works. I’ll be watching the Screen Actors Guild closely to see what will happen, but for now I am ranking Davis first, Streep second and Williams third. Further down in the contender listings, Adepero Oduye and Mia Wasikowska both were honored with shout-outs from Meryl, and consequently I have moved them both up within my top fifteen.
The Globes split their picture and director awards, which is something that the Academy may very well end up doing as well. For the moment, I have The Artist, Hugo and The Descendants at the top of these races, so I am going to stick to my current predictions and not adjust these. If I did make any changes here, it would probably be to move The Iron Lady up quite a bit, on the theory that it could easily ride Meryl’s coattails to the top. I will mention that Uggie the dog’s presence on the stage at the awards was a good move on behalf of The Artist’s campaign team.
I was hoping that “The Living Proof” would win best song last night, and neither Mary J. Blige nor Elton John looked amused as Madonna stole the show with her “Masterpiece.” I’m not changing my recently updated song predictions though, as I still think that the likely best picture nomination for The Help will push Blige into the lead.
Woody Allen’s win wasn’t a surprise, and I will be doing a long overdue update for both screenplay categories in the next few days.
Clooney, Plummer, Bource, Tintin and A Separation already sit at the top of my predictions, and Dujardin and Williams were the expected winners in the comedy/musical categories, so I’m not changing any of those at the moment.
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
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