Tuesday, January 17, 2012

84th Oscar Original Screenplay Updates (1/17/12)

Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Original Screenplay race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry. I’m predicting that Bridesmaids will beat out Young Adult for the fifth spot, although the writers occasionally surprise us with their propensity for independent and foreign films.

1. Woody Allen for Midnight In Paris (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 3)
2. Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist (previous rank 1)
3. Will Reiser for 50/50 (previous rank 14)
4. Thomas McCarthy and Joe Tiboni for Win Win (previous rank 11)
5. Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo for Bridesmaids (previous rank 36)

6. Diablo Cody for Young Adult (previous rank 7)
7. Mike Mills for Beginners (previous rank 9)
8. Asghar Farhadi for A Separation (New)
9. J.C. Chandor for Margin Cal (New)
10. Abi Morgan and Steve McQueen for Shame (previous rank 13)
11. Terrence Malick for The Tree Of Life (previous rank 6)
12. Sean Durkin for Martha Marcy May Marlene (previous rank 10)
13. Jeff Nichols for Take Shelter (previous rank 17)
14. Dee Rees for Pariah (previous rank 12)
15. Dustin Lance Black for J. Edgar (previous rank 2)
16. Drake Doremus and Ben York Jones for Like Crazy (previous rank 5)
17. Kenneth Lonergan for Margaret (New)
18. Scott Z. Burns for Contagion (previous rank 8)
19. Abi Morgan and Michael Hurst for The Iron Lady (previous rank 4)
20. John Michael McDonagh for The Guard (New)
21. John Logan, Gore Verbinski and James Ward Byrkit for Rango (previous rank 35)
22. J.J. Abrams for Super 8 (previous rank 18)
23. Paddy Considine for Tyrannosaur (previous rank 24)
24. John Orloff for Anonymous (previous rank 41)

25. Lars von Trier for Melancholia (previous rank 19)
26. Joseph Cedar for Footnote (previous rank 26)
27. Angelina Jolie for In The Land Of Blood And Honey (previous rank 39)
28. Andrew Haigh for Weekend (New)
29. Cliff Dorgman, Gavin O’Connor and Anthony Tambakis for Warrior (New)
30. James Ellroy and Oren Moverman for Rampart (previous rank 23)
31. Rebecca Frayn for The Lady (previous rank 46)
32. Joe Cornish for Attack The Block (New)
33. Rene Feret for Mozart’s Sister (New)
34. Eric Eason for A Better Life (New)
35. Dan Fogelman for Crazy Stupid Love (previous rank 21)
36. Abbas Kiarostami for Certified Copy (previous rank 42)
37. Manish Pandey for Senna (New)
38. Patrick DeWitt for Terri (New)
39. Seth Lockhead and David Farr for Hanna (New)
40. Peter Baynham and Sarah Smith for Arthur Christmas (New)
41. Mike Cahill and Brit Marling for Another Earth (New)
42. Phil Johnston for Cedar Rapids (New)
43. Ann Peackock for The First Grader (New)
44. Tom Hanks and Nia Vardalos for Larry Crowne (previous rank 20)
45. Kyle Killen for The Beaver (previous rank 28)
46. Madonna and Alek Keshishian for W.E. (previous rank 29)
47. Jonathan Raymond for Meek’s Cutoff (previous rank 22)
48. Larisa Kondracki and Ellis Kirwan for The Whistleblower (previous rank 31)
49. James Solomon for The Conspirator (previous rank 32)
50. David Schisgall andEvgenia Pretz for Our Idiot Brother  (previous rank 43)

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Original Screenplay predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Adapted Screenplay predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  


  1. Some big jumps in the top 5 this time around. I'm thinking Woody Allen will win but would love to see a newcomer get rewarded.

  2. Yep, seems like Woody Allen got himself ahead of the pack in the last week or so. Definitely pulling for him to win this.

  3. @Bonjour Tristesse, I did have some big jumps, largely because this is another category that I hadn't updated since July. I'm still working on how to cycle through all the categories I want to cover without getting too behind in any of them.

    @Castor, Having won both the Globes and the Critics Choice certainly helps him. I was tempted to go with Hazanavicius, but wonder if the general membership will think more about dialogue than all of the intricate actions that also get described.

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    1. Thanks Raymond. Spelling and grammar have always been areas where I have had problems. I do proofread everything twice before I post it, but the problem is always that my eyes "see" what my mind intended to write, instead of what is actually there! I'm continuing to work on it though. Thanks for sticking with me in the meantime!