Saturday, January 26, 2013

Costumes And Makeup And Hair, Oh My!

Big news out of the Academy this week as the Costume Designers are granted their own branch, and the Makeup And Hairstylists branch expands their representation on the board of governors from one to three members.

What does this mean for the Oscars? Probably very little in the short run. The actual Oscar voters remain the same, and even the nominations for costumes were already decided by the 110 member costume sub-group of the larger Designers branch (which was known until just last year as the Art Directors branch). Still, it is worth noting that Les Miserables is the only film to be nominated in all three of the impacted branches: Production Design, Costume Design and Makeup And Hairstyling.

Where the changes will really be significant is in terms of administration and governance for the academy. Over time it is possible that we could see a different proportion or configuration of new members admitted to the Academy in these branches, although my sense is that they already functioned with a fair amount of internal autonomy before the change.

For our Academy Members Project, though, it means that next July will see five new governors added to the board, which potentially means five new Academy members that I haven’t discovered yet. I’ll also be on watch over the next few weeks to see if any costume designers or makeup and hair specialists give public comments praising the change.

A slightly larger task will be going through the Designers Branch members who we’ve already identified and reassigning the costume designers to the correct branch. It won’t be too difficult given that their credits should be pretty easy to distinguish, but it will be time consuming, so give me a few weeks. I’ll also need to update the branch statistics page.

But for now, let’s just celebrate the expansion as a further recognition of the important work that these artists provide for our cinematic enjoyment!

(About) (Origins) (Branch Statistics) (Progress Updates) ( A ) ( B ) ( C ) ( D ) ( E ) ( F ) ( G ) ( H ) ( I ) ( J ) ( K ) ( L ) ( M ) ( N ) ( O ) ( P ) ( Q ) ( R ) ( S ) ( T ) ( U ) ( V ) ( W ) ( X ) ( Y ) ( Z ) (Non-Members)
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Wednesday, January 23, 2013

The Academy Members Project Adds 70 More Oscar Voters!

At the beginning of December, the Academy Members Project reached a milestone of having identified 50% of the members of AMPAS.

I’m happy to report that in the two months since, we have added an additional 70 new names! Among them is Kurtwood Smith, known for his work in RoboCop and -- you guessed it -- That '70s Show.

These additions bring our grand total to 3,451 Academy members, which is 51.8% of the 6,663 total voting, associate and retired members. With any luck, the next month between now and the ceremony will be just as productive and revelatory.

As always, we welcome your input. Additions, suggestions, corrections and verifications may be submitted in the comments section, or by emailing nevertooearlymoviepredictions@gmail.com.

Check out all the names on the alphabetical pages below:

(About) (Origins) (Branch Statistics) (Progress Updates) ( A ) ( B ) ( C ) ( D ) ( E ) ( F ) ( G ) ( H ) ( I ) ( J ) ( K ) ( L ) ( M ) ( N ) ( O ) ( P ) ( Q ) ( R ) ( S ) ( T ) ( U ) ( V ) ( W ) ( X ) ( Y ) ( Z ) (Non-Members)
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Saturday, January 19, 2013

Be Sure To Visit The LAMB Devours The Oscars


As some of you already know, I’m organizing “The LAMB Devours The Oscars” event for the Large Association Of Movie Blogs. It’s one of the ways that I can help out the organization without losing too much of my focus on awards coverage. It’s also a form of community service, and perhaps will go a small way towards making up for the fact that I haven’t been commenting on everyone’s blogs the way I used to.

From now through Oscar night, the series will feature 32 different authors giving their perspective on all the categories and best picture nominees. Some of them share my reverence for these events; others help us take a humorous step back from the drama of it all, but all of them are worthy of your attention. The first several entries are already up, and you can keep watching as all of them come in by visiting The LAMB Devours The Oscars page.

And for those film bloggers who haven’t done so yet, I encourage you to Join The LAMB. It’s a great community and a great way to get connected with others who share your passion for the cinematic arts.

Happy reading!
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Friday, January 11, 2013

Stop Complaining About The Directors Race And Be Glad There Are Nine!

This year’s Oscar nominations brought many surprises, and the one that has been heating up the airwaves is the absence of Kathryn Bigelow, Ben Affleck, Tom Hooper and Quentin Tarantino from the Directors race (usually in that order).

Explanations and conspiracy theories immediately sprang up. Maybe the Academy -- and by extension the entire Hollywood establishment -- simply hates all of them, despite the fact that they all already have Oscars on their mantels at home. Maybe the new online voting system confused too many voters. Maybe the earlier deadlines meant that people didn’t get to see all the films. Maybe terrorism, torture, slavery, and (apparently) the French revolution were too politically charged for the overly sensitive elite. Maybe the director’s branch is actively trying to keep down women. And actors. And gunslingers. And musicals. If you pour through the 85 year history of the Academy Awards, you are certain to find enough data points to support any one of these hypotheses. I even take some of these trends into account when making my predictions.

But there are two other explanations that I’d like to explore. The first is the mathematical certainty that in a close race someone is going to be left out. After all, few people are arguing that the films of Spielberg, Lee, Russell, Haneke or Zeitlin were unworthy of recognition. It’s simply that it’s been a great year for film. Which suggests that the others weren’t “snubbed” -- a word whose definition includes disdain or uncordial intent -- so much as that they barely missed the cut off. For all we know, they may have composed a four-way tie for sixth place, with each of them receiving as little as one vote fewer than the fifth place nominee.

On Oscar night, when only one person can take home the statue, everyone says that it’s “an honor to be nominated.” In a season where there’s an embarrassment of riches, perhaps we should start approaching nomination morning with the understanding that “It’s an honor NOT to be nominated too”, as long as people keep talking about you afterward.

But there is a second theory that I’d like to explore. I know that it will be a painful one for many people, but I can’t shake the feeling that there’s some truth to it. What if the directing nominations accurately reflect what the Academy’s best picture nominees would have been if there were only five? What if the accountants at Pricewaterhouse Coopers aren’t wringing their hands about the directors, but rather celebrating the fact that the expanded best picture field allowed for more popular films to make the cut? What if the post-analysis lesson isn’t that something new has broken, but rather that something has finally been fixed?

It sounds absurd at first to think that favorites like Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, Les Miserables and (to a lesser extent) Django Unchained wouldn’t have made a five film lineup. But let’s remember why they expanded the field to begin with: They were worried that the public’s favorite films -- even those that had garnered significant critical support -- were getting shut out of the nominations. To make matters worse (from the crass perspective of tv ratings), they were losing those slots to films that were independent, artistic or even (gasp!) foreign.

Independent.  Artistic.  Foreign.  Beasts Of The Southern Wild fits the first two criteria, and Amour fits all three. Combine that with Lincoln’s 12 nominations, Life Of Pi’s 11 nominations, and Silver Lining Playbook’s eight nominations -- including four acting nods -- and this scenario starts to resemble Oscar’s historical record. It suggests that the split between the Academy’s choices and the public’s is still just as alive as ever, only now that split is playing out in the director’s race instead of the Big Kahuna.

The criticism the Academy is getting for their directing picks is but a minor rumble compared to the howling that we might have seen under the old best picture rules. A howling, by the way, that might have cut into audience share and advertising dollars in a way that a directorial skirmish never will. Somewhere tonight there is an Academy official who knows the score. They aren’t complaining. They’re just glad there were nine.
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Wednesday, January 9, 2013

85th Oscar Lead Actress Updates (1/9/2013)

The name that I most want to hear on Oscar morning is Quvenzhane Wallis for Beasts Of The Southern Wild. Unfortunately, I just don’t see that happening at this point in the race. Too many groups chickened out and gave her the debut or breakthrough award, without also recognizing her in the main category.


1. Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty (Predicted Winner)
2. Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook
3. Naomi Watts in The Impossible
4. Marion Cotillard in Rust And Bone
5. Emmanuelle Riva in Amour

Alternates:
6. Helen Mirren in Hitchcock
7. Quvenzhane Wallis in Beasts Of The Southern Wild
8. Rachel Weisz in The Deep Blue Sea
9. Maggie Smith in Quartet
10. Judi Dench in Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
11. Keira Knightley in Anna Karanina
12. Emayatzy E. Corinealdi in Middle Of Nowhere
13. Mary Elizabeth Winstead in Smashed
14. Laura Linney in Hyde Park On Hudson
15. Meryl Streep in Hope Springs
16. Michelle Williams in Take This Waltz
17. Halle Berry in Cloud Atlas
18. Viola Davis in Won’t Back Down
19. Emily Blunt in Salmon Fishing In The Yemen
20. Jennifer Lawrence in The Hunger Games
21. Andrea Riseborough in Shadow Dancer
22. Leslie Mann in This Is Forty
23. Kara Hayward in Moonrise Kingdom
24. Elle Fanning in Ginger And Rosa
25. Diane Kruger in Farewell My Queen


As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!    
See Lead Actress predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Lead Actor, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 85th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  
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85th Oscar Original Song Updates (1/9/2013)

I think this race comes down to Skyfall and Les Miserables. Will they go with the artist that is hot right now for the win? Or will they want to honor the people who composed Les Miserables, even if the song they are rewarding isn’t the most famous? I find myself going back and forth between these two nearly every day, but for now I’ll bet on Adele for the win.

1. Skyfall from Skyfall (Predicted Winner)
2. Suddenly from Les Miserables
3. Learn Me Right from Brave
4. Ancora Qui from Django Unchained
5. Pi’s Lullaby from Life Of Pi

Alternates:
6. Everybody Needs A Friend from Ted
7. Still Alive from Paul Williams Is Still Alive
8. From Here To The Moon And Back from Joyful Noise
9. Freedom from Django Unchained
10. Song Of The Lonely Mountain from The Hobbit
11. Touch The Sky from Brave
12. Breath Of Life from Snow White And The Huntsman
13. Strange Love from Frankenweenie
14. Who Did That To You from Django Unchained
15. When Can I See You Again from Wreck-It Ralph
16. Snake Eyes from Promised Land
17. For You from Act Of Valor
18. This Gift from The Odd Life Of Timothy Green
19. Cosmonaut from Lawless
20. Still Dream from Rise Of The Guardians
21. Abraham’s Daughter from The Hunger Games
22. Dull Tool from This Is Forty
23. Before My Time from Chasing Ice
24. Ladies Of Tampa from Magic Mike
25. Love Always Comes As A Surprise from Madagascar 3
26. Wide Awake from Katy Perry: Part Of Me
27. Not Running from Stand Up Guys
28. One Wing from Sparkle
29. Anything Made Of Paper from West Of Memphis
30. Let It Rain from Being Flynn


As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!    
See Original Song predictions for other years HERE.
If you love music, you might also want to check out the Original Score predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 85th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  
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85th Oscar Best Director Updates (1/9/12)

It’s always dangerous to predict a split between the best picture and best director winners, but I’m going to do it anyway. If the torture politics continue, it’s possible that the Academy will reward her for the technical skill of bringing Zero Dark Thirty together, while granting the best picture award to Ben Affleck’s Argo for all the joy it brought us.


1. Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty (Predicted Winner)
2. Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
3. Ben Affleck for Argo
4. Ang Lee for Life Of Pi
5. Tom Hooper for Les Miserables

Alternates:
6. Michael Haneke for Amour
7. Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained
8. David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook
9. Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master
10. Benh Zeitlin for Beasts Of The Southern Wild
11. Wes Anderson for Moonrise Kingdom
12. Joe Wright for Anna Karenina
13. Robert Zemeckis for Flight
14. Christopher Nolan for The Dark Knight Rises
15. Tom Tykwer, Lana Wachowski and Andy Wachowski for Cloud Atlas
16. Juan Antonio Bayona for The Impossible
17. Peter Jackson for The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
18. Ben Lewin for The Sessions
19. Sam Mendes for Skyfall
20. Kim Ki-Duk for Pieta


As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!   
See Best Director predictions for other years HERE.
See predictions for other categories at the 85th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  
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85th Oscar Adapted Screenplay Updates (1/9/2013)

It seems crazy to leave out Life Of Pi here, but I have a feeling that the Writers Branch might feel the film is really more of a visual feast than a scripted one. I also feel like the writers are more likely to acknowledge the work of Perks and Beasts, and I’ll be most thankful if they reward both!


1. Lincoln (Predicted Winner)
2. Argo
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Beasts Of The Southern Wild
5. The Perks Of Being A Wallflower

Alternates:
6. Life Of Pi
7. Les Miserables
8. The Sessions
9. Anna Karenina
10. Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
11. Cloud Atlas
12. Skyfall
13. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
14. Rust And Bone
15. The Dark Knight Rises
16. This Is Forty
17. Hitchcock
18. Salmon Fishing In The Yemen
19. On The Road
20. 21 Jump Street
21. Frankenweenie
22. Quartet
23. Killing Them Softly
24. The Avengers
25. Cosmopolis


As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!    
See Adapted Screenplay predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Original Screenplay predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 85th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  
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85th Oscar Original Screenplay Updates (1/9/13)

1. Zero Dark Thirty (Predicted Winner)
2. Moonrise Kingdom
3. Django Unchained
4. The Master
5. Amour

Alternates:
6. Looper
7. Flight
8. Seven Psychopaths
9. The Intouchables
10. Arbitrage
11. Keep The Lights On
12. Middle Of Nowhere
13. The Impossible
14. Magic Mike
15. Ruby Sparks
16. The Cabin In The Woods
17. Brave
18. Ted
19. Promised Land
20. Take This Waltz
21. Safety Not Guaranteed
22. Celeste And Jesse Forever
23. Your Sister’s Sister
24. Compliance
25. Wreck-It Ralph


As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!    
See Original Screenplay predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Adapted Screenplay predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 85th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  

85th Oscar Original Score Updates (1/9/13)

1. Lincoln (Predicted Winner)
2. Argo
3. Life Of Pi
4. Anna Karenina
5. Beasts Of The Southern Wild

Alternates:
6. Zero Dark Thirty
7. The Master
8. Cloud Atlas
9. Skyfall
10. On The Road
11. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
12. The Impossible
13. Frankenweenie
14. The Dark Knight Rises
15. Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
16. Brave
17. Hitchcock
18. Snow White And The Huntsman
19. Rise Of The Guardians
20. Flight
21. Wreck-It Ralph
22. The Hunger Games
23. Dark Shadows
24. The Sessions
25. Prometheus


As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!    
See Original Score predictions for other years HERE.
Like words with your music? Check out the Original Song predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 85th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  
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