Although the public may not pay as much attention to the screenplay races, the adapted category presents the Academy with some interesting prospects. On the nomination side, there are several films competing for the fifth spot, including Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, The Ides Of March, The Dragon Tattoo and Drive. I’m going with Tinker because it was nominated for both the BAFTA and the Scripter awards, as well as a few local critics nods.
For the win, the Academy will likely need to choose between three previous nominees: Alexander Payne, Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian. Moneyball has the advantage of rewarding two of these, but my guess is that The Descendants will take this in the end, precisely because it is closer to the top of the best picture ticket. I also like this scenario, because it would make Jim Rash an Oscar winner. Take that NBC!
Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Adapted Screenplay race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.
1. Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash for The Descendants (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1)
2. Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian for Moneyball (previous rank 4)
3. Tate Taylor for The Help (previous rank 9)
4. John Logan for Hugo (previous rank 15)
5. Bright O’Connor and Peter Straughaun for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (previous rank 6)
6. George Clooney and Grant Heslov for The Ides Of March (previous rank 5)
7. Steven Zaillian for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (previous rank 7)
8. Hossein Amini for Drive (previous rank 14)
9. Richard Curtis and Lee Hall for War Horse (previous rank 3)
10. Eric Roth for Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previous rank 2)
11. Christopher Hampton for A Dangerous Method (previous rank 11)
12. Steven Kloves for Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows (previous rank 19)
13. Maoira Buffini for Jane Eyre (previous rank 21)
14. Steven Moffat, Edgar Wright and Joe Vornish for The Adventures Of Tintin: The Secret Of The Unicorn (previous rank 20)
15. Adrian Hodges for My Week With Marilyn (previous rank 16)
16. Lynne Ramsay and Rory Kinnear for We Need To Talk About Kevin (previous rank 12)
17. Pedro Almodovar for The Skin That I Inhabit (La Piel Que Habito) (previous rank 17)
18. Roman Polanski and Yasmina Reza for Carnage (previous rank 8)
19. Glenn Close and John Banville for Albert Nobbs (previous rank 10)
20. Cameron Crowe and Aline Brosh McKenna for We Bought A Zoo (previous rank 13)
21. Rick Jaffa and Amanda Silver for Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes (previous rank 35)
22. John Logan for Coriolanus (previous rank 26)
23. David NIcholls for One Day (previous rank 22)
24. Jason Segel and Nicholas Stoller for The Muppets (previous rank 44)
25. Richard Ayoade for Submarine (New)
26. David F. Shamoon for In Darkness (W. Ciemnosci) (New)
27. Bruce Robinson for The Rum Diary (previous rank 23)
28. Richard La Gravenese for Water For Elephants (previous rank 29)
29. Carolyn S. Briggs and Tim Metcalfe for Higher Ground (previously listed as original, rank 27)
30. Serge Joncour and Gilles Paquet-Brenner for Sarah’s Key (New)
31. Angela Workman, Ronald Bass and Michael Ray for Snow Flower And The Secret Fan (previous rank 37)
32. Francois Orzon for Potiche (New)
33. John Romano for The Lincoln Lawyer (previously ranked 48)
34. Matthew Vaughn, Jane Goldman and Peter Straughan for The Debt (previous rank 36)
35. Dan Fogelman, John Lasseter, Brad Lewis and Ben Queen for Cars 2 (previous rank 38)
36. Michael Thomas for The Devil’s Double (previous rank 33)
37. Heng Liu for The Flowers Of War (Jin Ling Shi San Chai) (previous rank 24)
38. Rula Jebreal for Miral (previous rank 41)
39. Rowan Joffe for Brighton Rock (previously ranked 44)
40. George Nolfi for The Adjustment Bureau (previous rank 34)
41. Michele Mulroney and Kieran Mulroney for Sherlock Holmes: A Game Of Shadows (New)
42. Gwyn Lurie and Gary Marks for The Music Never Stopped (previously ranked 40)
43. Ashley Miller, Zack Stentz, Jane Goldman and Matthew Vaughn for X-Men: First Class (New)
44. George Miller for Happy Feet 2 (previously ranked 46)
45. Christopher Markus and Stephen McFeely for Captain America: The First Avenger (New)
46. Josh Appelbaum and Andre Nemec for Mission: Impossible-Ghost Protocol (New)
47. Ashley Miller, Zack Stentz and Don Payne for Thor (New)
48. Jon Hurwitz and Hayden Schlossberg for A Very Harold And Kumar 3D Christmas (previous rank 47)
49. Rod Lurie for Straw Dogs (previously ranked 35)
50. Jeremy Brock for The Eagle (New)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Adapted Screenplay predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Original Screenplay predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
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