I realize that I should have posted this Sunday night, but better late than never.
This year I correctly predicted 19 out of the 24 winners for the Oscars.
Here’s a little bit about the five categories I got wrong, and what lessons I’ll be taking into next year:
Lead Actress: Jennifer Lawrence. I had went with Emmanuelle Riva’s amazing performance in Amour, but noted that I was probably underestimating Harvey Weinstein’s campaigning skills. I was right about the second half.
Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz. I had predicted Tommy Lee Jones, but knew that Waltz had won the BAFTA and was gaining momentum. Notice that Django Unchained was also one of Harvey Weinstein’s films, so I really should have no excuse.
Production Design: Lincoln. I had gone with Anna Karenina, but it makes complete sense that Lincoln needed to win something other than the acting award, and this fits the bill just fine.
Sound Editing: Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty tied. And I was wrong on both counts, having thought that Life Of Pi would continue its tech category sweep here. On the plus side, I am now more convinced than ever that a significant number of the voters do indeed know the difference between sound editing and sound mixing, and my prior writing on the types of films that each category rewards has been confirmed again!
Documentary Short: Inocente. I had predicted Open Heart as the documentary that had the deepest political roots, but in my review of all five documentary shorts I noted that Inocente was the feel-good movie of the nominees, and also focused on an artist, so I’m quite pleased with its win in this category.
So, how did you do? Did you get more than me? Any theories that you take away from the year, or things you’ve learned that you’d like to share? Let me know in the comments. .
Don’t you just hate it when blogs announce their anniversaries and then you feel required to write something supportive in the comments? Honestly, what really changed between when you had 364 days of ramblings to read and when you have 365?
By the way, did I mention that today is my one year anniversary of this blog? That’s right! 365 days of predictions, reviews and general awards madness, all piped into your homes, offices and mobile devices via the interwebs! Actually, I made it extra hard on myself because this was a leap year, so I actually had to wait 366 days. Talk about dedication!
Luckily, because my blog is about early predictions, I am able to use this opportunity to look back at my track record, which allows me to provide some content, instead of just self-congratulation. The chart below shows my statistics for the year (ClickHERE for a more detailed explanation of how I calculate myClose Score.)
In the final analysis, I correctly predicted 83 of the 119 eventual nominees (69.75%), and 13 out of 24 eventual winners (54.17%). 113 of the eventual nominees were in my top 10 (95%), with another 4 coming in at number 11 (98%). The last two both were at number 20, in the art direction and song category.
For the winners, I predicted 13 correctly (54.17%), with another 4 eventual winners being ranked as my backups at number 2 (70%), 5 more coming in within the top 3 (91.6%) and 2 falling at number 4 on my lists, and thus being true surprises in the sound editing and documentary categories.
Of particular interest to those who watch my early predictions is the fact that 13 of the eventual winners were ranked in my top 10 lists a year in advance (54%), with another 2 winners coming in at the number 11 spot (62.5). By July, after I had finished my post-Cannes analysis, 19 of the eventual winners were in my top 10 (79%), with the eventual winner of 22 of the categories (91.6%) showing up somewhere on my longer list (the two categories where I was surprised were the Live Action Shorts and Documentary Shorts). Oddly, my predictions actually suffered a bit in December (see the dips in the green and yellow lines), probably as a result of the immense chatter that came about as casual Oscar observers and critics groups distracted me!
So while I need to work on my skills at the end of the race, I am pretty proud of the early prediction work that goes on at this blog during the rest of the year!
For even more details on how I did on each race (and enough statistics to make your head explode), check out my Track Record Page.
It’s officially Oscar Day, and I’ll be using this page to update the winners as the ceremony progresses. And because I specialize in early predictions, I have also included my year in advance predictions of what will win for NEXT YEAR.
You can also follow me on twitter @NeverTooEarlyMP, where I will try to give some additional impressions throughout the night.
And just for fun, check out what I’ll be treated to for my Oscar Night Dinner Menu. Of course, we decided to include some LAMB in honor of my favorite movie blogging association, where you can find additional articles on all of the categories and nominees in their series, The LAMB Devours The Oscars, as well as our collective thoughts on who should have won in the LIONS For LAMBS Awards, and links to our LAMB Scores for every movie in 2011. And if you forgot to pick up music for your Oscar party, you can listen to all of the Oscar eligible songs submitted from this year’s films, including those that didn’t make the top five two.
My Track Record: 13/24. I'll do more statistics and analysis soon, as well as continue predictions for next year. For now, it looks like in my first year of making predictions I did better at picking the nominees (69.75%) than the winners (54.17%). Still, I won't give up, and look forward to sharing my thoughts with you as we move into next year. The Oscars are over. Long Live The Oscars!
Results:
Best Picture 1. The Artist (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Hugo 3. The Descendants 4. The Help 5. Moneyball 6. Midnight In Paris 7. War Horse 8. The Tree Of Life 9. Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close My year in advance prediction for next year is: Lincoln . Best Director 1. Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Martin Scorsese for Hugo 3. Alexander Payne for The Descendants 4. Woody Allen for Midnight In Paris 5. Terrence Malick for The Tree Of Life My year in advance prediction for next year is: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln. Lead Actress 1. Viola Davis in The Help (Predicted Winner) 2. Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady--ACTUAL WINNER 3. Michelle Williams in My Week With Marilyn 4. Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs 5. Rooney Mara for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo My year in advance prediction for next year is: Helen Hunt for The Surrogate. Lead Actor 1. George Clooney for The Descendants (Predicted Winner) 2. Jean Dujardin for The Artist--ACTUAL WINNER 3. Brad Pitt for Moneyball 4. Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy 5. Demian Bichir for A Better Life My year in advance prediction for next year is: John Hawkes for The Surrogate. Supporting Actress 1. Octavia Spencer for The Help (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Jessica Chastain for The Help 3. Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs 4. Berenice Bejo for The Artist 5. Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids My year in advance prediction for next year is: Amy Adams for The Master. Supporting Actor 1. Christopher Plummer in Beginners (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Kenneth Branagh in My Week With Marilyn 3. Nick Nolte for Warrior 4. Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close 5. Jonah Hill for Moneyball My year in advance prediction for next year is: Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained. Original Screenplay 1. Woody Allen for Midnight In Paris (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist 3. Asghar Farhadi for A Separation 4. J.C. Chandor for Margin Call 5. Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo for Bridesmaids My year in advance prediction for next is: Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained. Adapted Screenplay 1. Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash for The Descendants (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian for Moneyball 3. John Logan for Hugo 4. George Clooney and Grant Heslov for The Ides Of March 5. Bright O’Connor and Peter Straughaun for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy My year in advance prediction for next year is: David Magee for Life Of Pi (Update coming soon) Animated Feature 1. Gore Verbinski for Rango (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Javier Mariscal and Fernando Trueba for Chico & Rita 4. Jean-Loup Felicioli and Alain Gagnol for A Cat In Paris (Une Vie De Chat) 4. Jennifer Yuh Nelson for Kung Fu Panda 2 5. Chris Miller for Puss In Boots My year in advance prediction for next year is: Arrietty or Brave (Update coming soon) Documentary Feature 1. Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel for Pina (Predicted Winner) 2. Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky for Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory 3. Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner for Hell And Back Again 4. Daniel Lindsay, T.J. Martin and Rich Middlemas for Undefeated--ACTUAL WINNER 5. Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman for If A Tree Falls: A Story Of The Earth Liberation Front My year in advance prediction for next year is: The Island President. Foreign Language 1. Asghar Farhadi for A Separation (Jodaeiye Nader Az Simin) (Iran) (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Agnieszka Holland for In Darkness (W. Ciemnoscki) (Poland) 3. Philippe Falardeau for Monsieur Lazhar (Canada) 4. Joseph Cedar for Footnote (Hearat Shulayim) (Israel) 5. Michael R. Roskam for Bullhead (Rundskop) (Belgium) My year in advance prediction for next year is Portugal’s Tabu (Update coming soon) Art Direction 1. Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo for Hugo (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Laurence Bennett and Robert Gould for The Artist 3. Stuart Craig and Stephanie McMillan for Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 4. Rick Carter and Lee Sandales for War Horse 5. Anne Siebel and Helene Dubreuil for Midnight In Paris My year in advance prediction for next year is: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. Costume Design 1. Sandy Powell for Hugo (Predicted Winner) 2. Michael O’Connor for Jane Eyre 3. Mark Bridges for The Artist--ACTUAL WINNER 4. Arianna Phillips for W.E. 5. Lisy Christi for Anonymous My year in advance prediction for next year is: Cloud Atlas. Makeup 1. Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland for The Iron Lady (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin for Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 3. Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle for Albert Nobbs My year in advance prediction for next year is: The Hobbit. Cinematography 1. Emmanuel Lubezki for The Tree Of Life (Predicted Winner) 4. Guillaume Schiffman for The Artist 3. Robert Richardson for Hugo--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Janusz Kaminski for War Horse 5. Jeff Cronenweth for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo My year in advance prediction for next year is: Life Of Pi. Film Editing 1. Thelma Schoonmaker for Hugo (Predicted Winner) 2. Anne-Sophie Bion for The Artist 3. Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo--ACTUAL WINNER 4. Christopher Tellefsen for Moneyball 5. Kevin Trent for The Descendants My year in advance prediction for next year is: Cloud Atlas. Visual Effects 1. Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett for Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes (Predicted Winner) 2. Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson for Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 3. Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossman and Alex Henning for Hugo--ACTUAL WINNER 4. Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew Butler and John Frazier for Transformers: Dark Of The Moon 5. Eric Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg for Real Steel My year in advance prediction for next year is: The Hobbit. Original Song 1. Bret McKenzie for “Man Or Muppet” from The Muppets (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown and Siedah Garrett for “Real In Rio” from Rio My year in advance prediction for next year is: Brave or Les Miserables (Update coming soon) Original Score 1. Ludovic Bource for The Artist (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. John Williams for War Horse 3. Howard Shore for Hugo 4. Alberto Iglesias for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy 5. John Williams for The Adventures Of Tintin: The Secret Of The Unicorn My year in advance prediction for next year is: Ennio Morricone for Leningrad (Update coming soon) Sound Editing 1 Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom for War Horse (Predicted Winner) 2. Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahi for Transformers: Dark Of The Moon 3. Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis for Drive 4. Phillip Stockton and Eugene Gearty for Hugo--ACTUAL WINNER 5. Ren Klyce for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo My year in advance prediction for next year is: The Dark Knight Rises. Sound Mixing 1. Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson for War Horse (Predicted Winner) 2. Tom Fleischman and John Midgley for Hugo--ACTUAL WINNER 3. Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jaffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin for Transformers: Dark Of The Moon 4. Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco and Ed Movick for Moneyball 5. David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo My year in advance prediction for next year is: Prometheus. Animated Short 1. William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg for The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Enrico Casarosa for La Luna 3. Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby for Wild Life 4. Patrick Doyon for Dimanche (Sunday) 5. Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe for A Morning Stroll My year in advance prediction for next year is: Robots Of Brixton (Update coming soon) Documentary Short 1. Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen for The Tsunami And The Cherry Blossom (Predicted Winner) 2. Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy for Saving Face--ACTUAL WINNER 3. James Spione for Incident In New Baghdad 4. Gail Dolgin and Robin Fryday for The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier Of The Civil Rights Movement 5. Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson for God Is The Bigger Elvis My year in advance prediction for next year is: The Debutante Hunters (Updated coming soon) Live Action Short 1. Hallvar Witzo for Tuba Atlantic (Predicted Winner) 2. Max Zahle and Stefan Gieren for Raju 3. Terry George and Oorlagh George for The Shore--ACTUAL WINNER 4. Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey for Time Freak 5. Peter McDonald and Eimear O’Kane for Pentecost My year in advance prediction for next year is: Fishing Without Nets (Update coming soon)
Many of the professional Oscar sites don’t even bother looking at the shorts categories until after the nominees have been announced, but I rather enjoy speculating on these races. One reason is that I know that my predictions, whether right or wrong, really are my own, and haven’t been influenced by too many other voices. A second reason is that I truly believe that with enough experience and attention, there should be a way to predict these races just as there is with every other category.
This year I correctly predicted 3 out of 5 (60%) in the animated and documentary short races, and 2 out of 5 (40%) in the live action shorts race, with my previously predicted winner in the live action race not even making the cut.
My general strategy for the future remains the same: Watch for entries to film festivals, with the added intention of giving special focus to the films that win the Student Academy Awards, as two of those made it into the live action race.
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! For even more information on how I am doing in each race, and eventually an analysis of each individual race, be sure to check out myTrack Record Page. See my predictions Animated Shorts, Documentary Shorts andLive Action Shorts. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
In the Animation category, I correctly predicted 4 out of 5 nominees (80%), and could have done even better if I had trusted my instincts that the weak year for American animation might lead to two foreign animation nominees, and paid more attention to those who cautioned that the motion capture in Spielberg’s Tintin might not go over with the animation branch. I had left the film outside of my top 5 for most of the year, but when it was deemed eligible for submission in November I relented. In the Foreign Language category itself, I correctly predicted 4 out of 5 nominees (80%), with the fifth slot going to the film that I had placed at rank 6 (my first runner up). For Documentaries, I correctly predicted 2 out of 5 nominees (40%), and my previously predicted winner (Project Nim) didn’t even make the list.
In terms of “Close Scores” (having the eventual nominees ranked high in my list of contenders), the animated category showed higher scores much earlier, as might be expected given the higher profile of these films. The decision of the documentary branch to snub most of the populist favorites meant that my score didn’t rise until the short list had been announced. However, two of the eventual nominees did win prizes at last year’s Sundance festival, so I hope that by paying more attention to those trends I can score better next year. The foreign films received a boost after Cannes (again as expected), and two of them premiered at Berlin, suggesting that next year's race may begin in earnest in a few weeks. The dip in the purple line in November represents when I moved Israel’s Footnote out of the top 5 (but still in the top 7), as new (but apparently untested) contenders came online.
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! For even more information on how I am doing in each race, and eventually an analysis of each individual race, be sure to check out myTrack Record Page. See my predictions for Animated Features, Documentary Features and Foreign Language Features. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
In the audio categories, I correctly predicted 3 out of 5 eventual nominees (60%) for original score, sound mixing and sound editing, with sound editing being one of the few categories where my predicted winner didn’t even make the nominee list. In original song, I predicted 0 of the 2 nominees (0%). It’s possible that I would have scored better if this were a full category of 5 nominees, but it is also possible that I completely misunderstand what the song writers are looking for when they vote. Overall, I have decided that I need to listen to movies much more carefully than I have been.
The dip that you see in the red line in November represents the point at which I went from merely listing Rio and The Muppets by their movie title, to actually parsing out the individual songs that would make it. Clearly, I chose the wrong ones, as both “Life’s A Happy Song” and “Pictures In My Head” were in my top five, but neither made the Academy’s list.
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! For even more information on how I am doing in each race, and eventually an analysis of each individual race, be sure to check out myTrack Record Page. See my predictions for Original Song, Original Score, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
