Friday, January 6, 2012

84th Oscar Visual Effects Updates (1/6/12)

This week the Academy’s Visual Effects branch narrowed the field once again from a long list of 15 to a short list of 10. Most surprising is that at the beginning of the year there were many people who were predicting that Super 8 might be a best picture contender, but now it isn’t even eligible to compete in Visual Effects (although it’s still a possibility that it could sneak into one of the sound categories).

During the last cut I correctly predicted 11 films on the long list (73%), but this time I did a little better with 8 of the shortlist winners being in my previous top 10 (80%), and all 10 of them being in my top 12 (100%). You can see how I’m doing in the other races on my Tracker Record Page.

Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Visual Effects race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry. I’m taking this opportunity to move Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes into the lead. I’m placing Hugo second because the Academy often chooses to reward films that are also best picture contenders. Harry Potter drops to third, because the love for the series that I’d been predicting for a while does not seem to be playing out quite as I expected.

1. Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 2)
2. Hugo (previous rank 3)
3. Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (previous rank 1)
4. Transformers: Dark Of The Moon (previous rank 4)
5. The Tree Of Life (previous rank 5)

6. Captain America: The First Avenger (previous rank 7)
7. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (previous rank 12)
8. X-Men: First Class (previous rank 10)
9. Real Steel (previous rank 11)
10. Pirates Of The Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (previous rank 8)

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Visual Effects predictions for other years HERE.
If you’re into visual effects, you might also like Cinematography and Film Editing.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  


  1. It's a shame, Potter deserves it.

  2. Wait, why isn't Super 8 eligible?

  3. God, I sure hope REAL STEEL is not considered. Ghost Protocol was great, though.

  4. @Kent, I liked Harry Potter a lot, but am worried that it's not picking up enough love from the right places to carry it to a win. Apes is definitely deserving though.

    @Anonymous, Super 8 made the long list of 15 that they announced last month, but didn't make the short list of 10 that was announced this week. I'm not sure why it didn't make it, other than the branch seemed to like the other ones more.

    @Sam, Ghost Protocol seems to still be doing ok at the box office, so it does have a shot. Funny to see you rooting against Real Steel (which I haven't seen, of course). I do have a feeling that it will be left out in the end.

  5. This is my top 5 too but I'm hoping for harry potter to win its first oscar!

  6. I'm still pulling for HP to get some technical love but you are right, it feels like Apes is getting some momentum as of late in this category.

  7. I think we are going to know when teh nominations are announced who is going to win this category. If ROTPOTA can get into another category besides visual effects it will signal support for the film within the Academy and it will win. If not, I think Hugo wins.

    I am shocked Super 8 missed the cut. I was predicting that to get in.

  8. @F.Franklin, For a long time I was thinking that Potter would pick this up as a sort of "career win," but its absence from several other lists, including the PGA, makes me worry that they really will let the whole series go without an Oscar.

    @Castor, Apes is definitely deserving, as is HP.

    @Ryan, You may be right there. By the time it gets to the whole academy they are definitely voting for their favorite film and less on the actual technical work. And Best Picture nominees often take this category too.

    I have no official information on what happened with Super 8 missing the cut, but I'm wondering if perhaps it didn't use enough "new" technology or something. Looking at most of the other nominees, I'm aware that they may have done things that weren't possible a few years ago.

  9. Rise of the Planet of the Apes is technically very impressive, I'm also rooting for Serkis to be nominated in Best Actor category. Hey why not? Mo-cap acting IS acting.

  10. @Ruth, I'm in full agreement. I currently have Serkis in my top 10 for supporting, but I suspect that the Academy isn't as open minded as we are.