Don’t you just hate it when blogs announce their anniversaries and then you feel required to write something supportive in the comments? Honestly, what really changed between when you had 364 days of ramblings to read and when you have 365?
By the way, did I mention that today is my one year anniversary of this blog? That’s right! 365 days of predictions, reviews and general awards madness, all piped into your homes, offices and mobile devices via the interwebs! Actually, I made it extra hard on myself because this was a leap year, so I actually had to wait 366 days. Talk about dedication!
Luckily, because my blog is about early predictions, I am able to use this opportunity to look back at my track record, which allows me to provide some content, instead of just self-congratulation. The chart below shows my statistics for the year (ClickHERE for a more detailed explanation of how I calculate myClose Score.)
In the final analysis, I correctly predicted 83 of the 119 eventual nominees (69.75%), and 13 out of 24 eventual winners (54.17%). 113 of the eventual nominees were in my top 10 (95%), with another 4 coming in at number 11 (98%). The last two both were at number 20, in the art direction and song category.
For the winners, I predicted 13 correctly (54.17%), with another 4 eventual winners being ranked as my backups at number 2 (70%), 5 more coming in within the top 3 (91.6%) and 2 falling at number 4 on my lists, and thus being true surprises in the sound editing and documentary categories.
Of particular interest to those who watch my early predictions is the fact that 13 of the eventual winners were ranked in my top 10 lists a year in advance (54%), with another 2 winners coming in at the number 11 spot (62.5). By July, after I had finished my post-Cannes analysis, 19 of the eventual winners were in my top 10 (79%), with the eventual winner of 22 of the categories (91.6%) showing up somewhere on my longer list (the two categories where I was surprised were the Live Action Shorts and Documentary Shorts). Oddly, my predictions actually suffered a bit in December (see the dips in the green and yellow lines), probably as a result of the immense chatter that came about as casual Oscar observers and critics groups distracted me!
So while I need to work on my skills at the end of the race, I am pretty proud of the early prediction work that goes on at this blog during the rest of the year!
For even more details on how I did on each race (and enough statistics to make your head explode), check out my Track Record Page.
It’s officially Oscar Day, and I’ll be using this page to update the winners as the ceremony progresses. And because I specialize in early predictions, I have also included my year in advance predictions of what will win for NEXT YEAR.
You can also follow me on twitter @NeverTooEarlyMP, where I will try to give some additional impressions throughout the night.
And just for fun, check out what I’ll be treated to for my Oscar Night Dinner Menu. Of course, we decided to include some LAMB in honor of my favorite movie blogging association, where you can find additional articles on all of the categories and nominees in their series, The LAMB Devours The Oscars, as well as our collective thoughts on who should have won in the LIONS For LAMBS Awards, and links to our LAMB Scores for every movie in 2011. And if you forgot to pick up music for your Oscar party, you can listen to all of the Oscar eligible songs submitted from this year’s films, including those that didn’t make the top five two.
My Track Record: 13/24. I'll do more statistics and analysis soon, as well as continue predictions for next year. For now, it looks like in my first year of making predictions I did better at picking the nominees (69.75%) than the winners (54.17%). Still, I won't give up, and look forward to sharing my thoughts with you as we move into next year. The Oscars are over. Long Live The Oscars!
Results:
Best Picture 1. The Artist (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Hugo 3. The Descendants 4. The Help 5. Moneyball 6. Midnight In Paris 7. War Horse 8. The Tree Of Life 9. Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close My year in advance prediction for next year is: Lincoln . Best Director 1. Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Martin Scorsese for Hugo 3. Alexander Payne for The Descendants 4. Woody Allen for Midnight In Paris 5. Terrence Malick for The Tree Of Life My year in advance prediction for next year is: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln. Lead Actress 1. Viola Davis in The Help (Predicted Winner) 2. Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady--ACTUAL WINNER 3. Michelle Williams in My Week With Marilyn 4. Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs 5. Rooney Mara for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo My year in advance prediction for next year is: Helen Hunt for The Surrogate. Lead Actor 1. George Clooney for The Descendants (Predicted Winner) 2. Jean Dujardin for The Artist--ACTUAL WINNER 3. Brad Pitt for Moneyball 4. Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy 5. Demian Bichir for A Better Life My year in advance prediction for next year is: John Hawkes for The Surrogate. Supporting Actress 1. Octavia Spencer for The Help (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Jessica Chastain for The Help 3. Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs 4. Berenice Bejo for The Artist 5. Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids My year in advance prediction for next year is: Amy Adams for The Master. Supporting Actor 1. Christopher Plummer in Beginners (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Kenneth Branagh in My Week With Marilyn 3. Nick Nolte for Warrior 4. Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close 5. Jonah Hill for Moneyball My year in advance prediction for next year is: Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained. Original Screenplay 1. Woody Allen for Midnight In Paris (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist 3. Asghar Farhadi for A Separation 4. J.C. Chandor for Margin Call 5. Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo for Bridesmaids My year in advance prediction for next is: Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained. Adapted Screenplay 1. Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash for The Descendants (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian for Moneyball 3. John Logan for Hugo 4. George Clooney and Grant Heslov for The Ides Of March 5. Bright O’Connor and Peter Straughaun for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy My year in advance prediction for next year is: David Magee for Life Of Pi (Update coming soon) Animated Feature 1. Gore Verbinski for Rango (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Javier Mariscal and Fernando Trueba for Chico & Rita 4. Jean-Loup Felicioli and Alain Gagnol for A Cat In Paris (Une Vie De Chat) 4. Jennifer Yuh Nelson for Kung Fu Panda 2 5. Chris Miller for Puss In Boots My year in advance prediction for next year is: Arrietty or Brave (Update coming soon) Documentary Feature 1. Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel for Pina (Predicted Winner) 2. Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky for Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory 3. Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner for Hell And Back Again 4. Daniel Lindsay, T.J. Martin and Rich Middlemas for Undefeated--ACTUAL WINNER 5. Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman for If A Tree Falls: A Story Of The Earth Liberation Front My year in advance prediction for next year is: The Island President. Foreign Language 1. Asghar Farhadi for A Separation (Jodaeiye Nader Az Simin) (Iran) (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Agnieszka Holland for In Darkness (W. Ciemnoscki) (Poland) 3. Philippe Falardeau for Monsieur Lazhar (Canada) 4. Joseph Cedar for Footnote (Hearat Shulayim) (Israel) 5. Michael R. Roskam for Bullhead (Rundskop) (Belgium) My year in advance prediction for next year is Portugal’s Tabu (Update coming soon) Art Direction 1. Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo for Hugo (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Laurence Bennett and Robert Gould for The Artist 3. Stuart Craig and Stephanie McMillan for Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 4. Rick Carter and Lee Sandales for War Horse 5. Anne Siebel and Helene Dubreuil for Midnight In Paris My year in advance prediction for next year is: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. Costume Design 1. Sandy Powell for Hugo (Predicted Winner) 2. Michael O’Connor for Jane Eyre 3. Mark Bridges for The Artist--ACTUAL WINNER 4. Arianna Phillips for W.E. 5. Lisy Christi for Anonymous My year in advance prediction for next year is: Cloud Atlas. Makeup 1. Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland for The Iron Lady (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin for Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 3. Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle for Albert Nobbs My year in advance prediction for next year is: The Hobbit. Cinematography 1. Emmanuel Lubezki for The Tree Of Life (Predicted Winner) 4. Guillaume Schiffman for The Artist 3. Robert Richardson for Hugo--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Janusz Kaminski for War Horse 5. Jeff Cronenweth for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo My year in advance prediction for next year is: Life Of Pi. Film Editing 1. Thelma Schoonmaker for Hugo (Predicted Winner) 2. Anne-Sophie Bion for The Artist 3. Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo--ACTUAL WINNER 4. Christopher Tellefsen for Moneyball 5. Kevin Trent for The Descendants My year in advance prediction for next year is: Cloud Atlas. Visual Effects 1. Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett for Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes (Predicted Winner) 2. Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson for Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 3. Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossman and Alex Henning for Hugo--ACTUAL WINNER 4. Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew Butler and John Frazier for Transformers: Dark Of The Moon 5. Eric Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg for Real Steel My year in advance prediction for next year is: The Hobbit. Original Song 1. Bret McKenzie for “Man Or Muppet” from The Muppets (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown and Siedah Garrett for “Real In Rio” from Rio My year in advance prediction for next year is: Brave or Les Miserables (Update coming soon) Original Score 1. Ludovic Bource for The Artist (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. John Williams for War Horse 3. Howard Shore for Hugo 4. Alberto Iglesias for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy 5. John Williams for The Adventures Of Tintin: The Secret Of The Unicorn My year in advance prediction for next year is: Ennio Morricone for Leningrad (Update coming soon) Sound Editing 1 Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom for War Horse (Predicted Winner) 2. Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahi for Transformers: Dark Of The Moon 3. Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis for Drive 4. Phillip Stockton and Eugene Gearty for Hugo--ACTUAL WINNER 5. Ren Klyce for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo My year in advance prediction for next year is: The Dark Knight Rises. Sound Mixing 1. Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson for War Horse (Predicted Winner) 2. Tom Fleischman and John Midgley for Hugo--ACTUAL WINNER 3. Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jaffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin for Transformers: Dark Of The Moon 4. Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco and Ed Movick for Moneyball 5. David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo My year in advance prediction for next year is: Prometheus. Animated Short 1. William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg for The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER 2. Enrico Casarosa for La Luna 3. Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby for Wild Life 4. Patrick Doyon for Dimanche (Sunday) 5. Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe for A Morning Stroll My year in advance prediction for next year is: Robots Of Brixton (Update coming soon) Documentary Short 1. Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen for The Tsunami And The Cherry Blossom (Predicted Winner) 2. Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy for Saving Face--ACTUAL WINNER 3. James Spione for Incident In New Baghdad 4. Gail Dolgin and Robin Fryday for The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier Of The Civil Rights Movement 5. Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson for God Is The Bigger Elvis My year in advance prediction for next year is: The Debutante Hunters (Updated coming soon) Live Action Short 1. Hallvar Witzo for Tuba Atlantic (Predicted Winner) 2. Max Zahle and Stefan Gieren for Raju 3. Terry George and Oorlagh George for The Shore--ACTUAL WINNER 4. Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey for Time Freak 5. Peter McDonald and Eimear O’Kane for Pentecost My year in advance prediction for next year is: Fishing Without Nets (Update coming soon)
Even though the theme of this blog is that it’s “Never Too Early” to start making Oscar predictions, I suppose that it’s also “Never Too Late.” In that spirit, I took one last look at my predictions to see if I wanted to change anything.
I decided that I only needed to make two changes. First, I am moving The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore back into the winners position. Regular readers of this blog know that I had been predicting it to win since July, but got scared of a Pixar rebellion earlier this month and placed La Luna into the lead instead. However, based on what I’m hearing from people who have seen all the shorts, I’m putting Flying Books back for my final predictions.
The other race that has kept me up at night is Lead Actor. Prior to the nominations, I had George Clooney first, Brad Pitt in second and Jean Dujardin in third. That, of course, was before Dujardin won both the SAG and the BAFTA.
I’ve decided to stick with Clooney for the win, on the theory that he has more pull in Hollywood, and there has to be a “surprise” somewhere during the night. I have moved Dujardin to second place though.
You can find more information about most of the races by clicking on the links for the various categories:
Final Predictions:
Best Picture: The Artist Best Director: Michel Hazanaviciu for The Artist Lead Actress: Viola Davis in The Help Lead Actor: George Clooney in The Descendants Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer in The Help Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer in Beginners Original Screenplay: Woody Allen for Midnight In Paris Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash for The Descendants Animated Feature: Gore Verbinski for Rango Documentary Feature: Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel for Pina Foreign Language: Asghar Farhadi for A Separation Art Direction: Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo for Hugo Costume Design: Sandy Powell for Hugo Makeup:Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland for The Iron Lady Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki for The Tree Of Life Film Editing: Thelma Schoonmaker for Hugo Visual Effects: Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett for Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes Song: Bret McKenzie for “Man Or Muppet” from The Muppets Score: Ludovic Bource for The Artist Sound Editing: Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom for War Horse Sound Mixing: Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson for War Horse Animated Short: William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg for The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore Documentary Short: Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen for The Tsunami And The Cherry Blossom Live Action Short: Hallvar Witzo for Tuba Atlantic
Predictions Tally:
Three Wins: The Artist, Hugo
Two Wins: The Help, The Descendants, War Horse
One Win: Beginners, Midnight In Paris, Rango, A Separation, Pina, The Tree Of Life, The Iron Lady, The Muppets, Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes, Tuba Atlantic, The Tsunami And The Cherry Blosom, The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
Note: This post was written as part of “The LAMB Devours The Oscars” series sponsored by The Large Association Of Movie Blogs (The LAMB). In a series of guest posts, 32 bloggers will look at each of the award races and each of the best picture nominees. It’s a great way to get a range of views about the races, in addition to my own. Check out all of the contributionsHERE.
Who is ready to learn something? I understand that the Documentary Features may be too long for some of us, but these are the SHORTS, for goodness sake. Has our attention span really gotten so low that we can’t sit through 20 to 40 minutes of a film that doesn’t have explosions or movie stars? SPOILER: Actually, some of these DO include explosions and movie stars, so it’s not like they’re asking us to read a book or something.
Sure, we can blame it on the fact that the films aren’t screening near us (my local art house theater plays the animated and live action shorts, but not the docs), or the fact that the few theaters that are playing these have only been able to get the rights to 4 of the 5, but isn’t it more likely that we’d go watch Ghost Rider or The Vow anway? Who needs to learn about the world when we can escape from it? But for those of you who are up for the challenge, here are your nominees:
1. Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen for The Tsunami And The Cherry Blossom. (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1). Trailer. Official Site.IMDB page. Documenting the earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan, this film uses the cherry trees which blossomed in the aftermath to reflect upon the fragility and beauty of life.
Facts: The film premiered at Toronto and won three awards at this year’s Sundance Film Festival. Director Lucy Walker was previously nominated in the feature documentary category for Waste Land, and has been nominated for Independent Spirit and Emmy Awards for Devil’s Playground. She’s also worked on Blue’s Clues! The film is produced by Supply & Demand Integrated and is 39 minutes.
Assessment: I am currently predicting this to win because the cinematography in the trailer is absolutely stunning, and the combination of recent events and the presentation of a “visual haiku” will appeal to unique sets of voters. Plus, it has music by Moby! On the other hand, the Academy often uses this category to highlight societal injustices that demand a call to action, so the environmental causes of this disaster could make it feel less urgent.
2. Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy for Saving Face (previous rank 4).Trailer.Official Site.IMDB page. Documenting the phenomenon of acid attacks against women in Pakistan, this film follows several survivors and a London-based plastic surgeon who tries to help them, and also explores the push to pass new legislation that would impose stricter sentencing for the perpetrators of this crime.
Facts: The film is scheduled to debut on HBO on March 8 as part of International Women’s Month. Director Daniel Junge was previously nominated in the documentary short category for The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner, and producer Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy won an Emmy for Pakistan: Children Of The Taliban. The film is produced by Milkhaus/Jungefilm and is 40 minutes.
Assessment: Of all the films, this one has the most in common with past winners of this category, which often focus on inspiring stories of individuals in foreign lands working to fight real injustices. It is also getting good reviews from those who have seen it. Its biggest challenge comes from the fact that the Academy recently wrote new rules focusing on theatrical releases, rather than documentaries designed for television. The rule doesn’t go into effect until next year, but voters who felt strongly about it may bulk at rewarding a film that is being released on HBO two weeks after the ceremony.
3. James Spione for Incident In New Baghdad (previous rank 2).Trailer.Additional Scene.Official Site.IMDB page.My Review. Documenting the horrors of war and their psychological impact on veterans, this film follows Ethan McCord’s journey from soldier to activist. Unlike the war films that the Hollywood studios put out, this one involves the death of journalists and civilians by U.S. helicopters, WikiLeaks revelations of government cover-ups, and the plight of military personnel suffering from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder.
Facts: The film won at both the Tribeca and Rhode Island Film Festivals, and showed at several others including Tallgrass, Camden and Palm Springs. Director James Spione has previously won a Student Academy Award for Prelude. The film is produced by Morninglight Films and is 22 minutes.
Assessment: The continuing wars of the United States and the struggles of returning veterans are the types of issues that we commonly associate with the documentary branch. But the reality is that war films are usually rewarded in the Documentary Feature category, while the shorts tend to focus on smaller personal stories. Indeed, you have to go all the way back to 1991 to find a documentary short winner that directly discussed the military industrial complex in the United States. This year there is additional competition because there is a documentary feature, Hell And Back Again, that covers very similar issues.
4. Gail Dolgin and Robin Fryday for The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier Of The Civil Rights Movement (previous rank 3).Trailer.Official Site.IMDB page. This documentary follows James Armstrong, an 85 year old civil rights advocate, as he participates in the election of the first African American president. In addition to his personal story, the film explores the improvements made to elections in the South since the passage of the Voting Rights Act.
Facts: The film premiered at Sundance, won at the Ashland Independent Film Festival and played at several others including SilverDocs, Tallgrass, MountainWeek and DocuWeek. One of the directors, Gail Dolgin, has been previously nominated in the feature documentary category for Daughter From Danang. The film is produced by Purposeful Productions and is 25 minutes.
Assessment: Civil rights stories have done well in this category, and the film is getting good reviews, but I wonder how the timing of this nomination will play out in terms of the American election cycle. It feels a few years too late to capitalize on the excitement of President Obama’s historic victory, and Academy members may feel that rewarding the film this close to the next election cycle could be seen as too partisan.
5. Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson for God Is The Bigger Elvis (previous rank 5). IMDB page.News Article, 20/20 Interview. This film documents the life of Dolores Hart, a movie star from the 1960’s who received Elvis Presley’s first onscreen kiss, and then became a Catholic nun.
Facts: The film is scheduled to debut on HBO in April. Director Rebecca Cammisa was previously nominated in the feature documentary category for Which Way Home, and producer Julie Anderson has been nominated for four Emmy awards. The film is produced by Documentress Films and is 37 minutes.
Assessment: The film doesn’t appear to tackle pressing social issues the way that the other films do, and is another HBO production that looks designed for television. On the other hand, this category has honored interesting figures in the past, and Hart is an actual Academy member who may have old friends and co-workers who would vote for her.
