Wednesday, January 4, 2012

84th Oscar Best Picture Updates (1/5/12)

Always a Bridesmaid. Never a Nominee.
The PGA spoke yesterday (No, not the golfers, the Producers Guild Of America), and their choices seem to have cemented the top seven films in the best picture race. They also gave some new life to The Ides of March and The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo. But the news that has been lighting up the internet is the inclusion of Bridesmaids in their list.

In a way, it makes perfect sense that the producers would want to welcome Judd Apatow into their fold, and Bridesmaids offers the perfect opportunity for that. While I’m not one who believes that Bridesmaids can really get an Oscar nomination for best picture, I have had to add it to my list at position 13. I do predict, however, that on the morning of Oscar nominations we may see some clever journalists quoting “Always a Bridesmaid, Never a Bride” when referencing the perceived snub.

The real question we should be asking is whether The Tree Of Life or The Ides Of March will have enough five percent votes to make it into the eighth position. Both clearly have strong support among critics (for Tree) and industry professionals (for Ides). For the moment, I’m giving the slight edge to The Tree Of Life because its fans seem more likely to actually list it as number one on their ballots, while the inclusion of The Ides Of March seems to be coming from groups with expanded lists of 10 (or 11 for the Golden Globes), suggesting that it may be a consensus builder for filling out the lists rather than a passionate vote stealer.

Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Best Picture race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.

1. The Artist (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1)
2. The Descendants (previous rank 2)
3. War Horse (previous rank 3)
4. Hugo (previous rank 18)
5. The Help (previous rank 4)
6. Midnight In Paris (previous rank 10)
7. Moneyball (previous rank 9)
8. The Tree Of Life (previous rank 8)

9. The Ides Of March (previous rank 6)
10. Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previous rank 7)

11. Drive (previous rank 24)
12. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (previous rank 13)
13. Bridesmaids (New)
14. J. Edgar (previous rank 5)
15. Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (previous rank 12)
16. My Week With Marilyn (previous rank 16)
17. Shame (previous rank 26)
18. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (previous rank 11)
19. 50/50 (previous rank 32)
20. Beginners (previous rank 47)
21. Take Shelter (previous rank 36)
22. Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes (previous rank 34)
23. Martha Marcy May Marlene (previous rank 15)
24. A Dangerous Method (previous rank 14)
25. Win Win (previous rank 48)

26. Pariah (previous rank 37)
27. A Separation (New)
28. Margaret (New)
29. Warrior (previous rank 25)
30. Young Adult (previous rank 17)
31. Contagion (previous rank 20)
32. Margin Call (New)
33. We Need To Talk About Kevin (previous rank 29)
34. Like Crazy (previous rank 22)
35. Super 8 (previous rank 30)
36. Melancholia (previous rank 35)
37. The Flowers Of War (previously listed in 85th Oscar race, rank 11)
38. A Better Life (New)
39. In The Land Of Blood And Honey (previous rank 33)
40. Carnage (previous rank 23)
41. The Iron Lady (previous rank 19)
42. We Bought A Zoo (previous rank 21)
43. The Adventures Of Tintin: The Secret Of The Unicorn (previous rank 28)
44. The Skin I Live In (La Piel Que Habito) (previous rank 27)
45. Rampart (previous rank 40)
46. Albert Nobbs (previous rank 31)
47. The First Grader (New)
48. The Lady (previous rank 46)
49. Jane Eyre (previous rank 39)
50. Coriolanus (previous rank 38)

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Best Picture predictions for other years HERE.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  


  1. I think Bridesmaids is a real threat. I have seen two articles (one in Entertainment Weekly and the other in Empire) showing a bunch of actors saying Bridesmaids was their favorite film of the year. They weren't all Academy voters, but it was still a striking piece of evidence.

    The Tree of Life missing out on a PGA nominations was major considering they use the preferential voting system that the Academy does. If it misses at both the WGA and DGA, I think it is out no matter how passionate its supporters are.

    The Ides of March could definitely surprise.

  2. Thanks Ryan! I'll definitely look to see if I can find those articles. I'm sure it will get some number one votes, but I just have a hard time believing that the group of voters who have given us every other years' slate of contenders can change gears so quickly. But I am nervous enough to put Bridesmaids in my top 15.

    I am watching Ides closely, as it's the highest ranked political movie on the list, and there are usually a group of voters who like films with "an important message." That's also one of the reasons that J. Edgar hasn't dropped out of my top 20 despite some of the reviews.

  3. Personally, I would be very surprised that Bridesmaids made it, especially in a field of 8 as you predict. The Academy just doesn't go for these type of low-brow comedies like... ever. It certainly will be exciting next month to see what movies get a nod.

  4. Interesting. I wonder if the Ratner/Murphy debacle will come into play in the minds of the voters (at least the older ones). "We shouldn't pick an edgy movie because we tried to go with an edgy showrunner and that didn't work out so well."

    LOVE the site, btw.

  5. @Castor, I think you're right. In a field of 10 I would probably be questioning it a bit more, but with 8 I just think it is going to look more like a traditional ballot.

    @ScribeHard, Thanks! I love writing it! I don't think the Ratner/Murphy thing will consciously impact which films people vote for, especially since Tower Heist was never really in the conversation to begin with. But the list of expected nominees along with Crystal certainly do suggest that they are in a nostalgic mood. Of those that I'm predicting to make the cut, only Moneyball and The Descendants are set fully in the contemporary era, and one of those has baseball (a topic that tugs at American nostalgia if there ever was one), and the other has Clooney, who kind of acts like an old movie star. So at the very least, it contributes to an atmosphere where there is no push to try and be young and hip. Better to just wait until next year to try that.

  6. Not sure if Extremely and Incredibly should be in the top ten anymore (Though I would not count out any of the actors yet. I Am Sam ring a bell?)

  7. @Anonymous, I think you're right that Extremely Loud isn't going to get a nomination, but since there won't likely be 10 nominees ever again the 10th spot isn't really what it used to be either. LOL!

    Given Daldry's record, I figured it might have a better shot at that surprise nomination than some of the other ones, but even that seems unlikely since it would have to bump off something else in order to get in... Although that could all change too once the DGA announces their list.

  8. Nice to see Moneyball climbing your rankings... Hugo made a huge jump too, one of the many movies I still need to see. Checking Dragon Tattoo off that list tomorrow.

  9. Thanks Kent! I had underestimated Hugo, in particular, because I thought it was going to be much more of a kids film.

  10. Maybe they should've renamed it Extremely Silly and Incredibly Unlikely.

    Anyway, while I wasn't the biggest fan of Bridesmaids, it's probably a couple of steps above most of the other possible nominees. I'm looking forward to following you as this goes along!

  11. Thanks Danny! I haven't seen Extremely... yet, and admit that I'm less and less likely to if it doesn't start getting recognized somewhere.

    Bridesmaids could always surprise me, and I'm just not convinced that it can get in. Even when comedies do make it, they tend to have some more serious thematic elements in them as well.