This page tracks how well my early predictions matched up to the eventual nominees and winners. The 2011-2012 season (84th awards) was my first year doing Oscar Predictions. If you are looking instead for a list of all my reviews, click HERE.
Total Wins and Nominations (Updated 3/8/12)
In the final analysis, I correctly predicted 83 of the 119 eventual nominees (69.75%), and 13 out of 24 eventual winners (54.17%). 113 of the eventual nominees were in my top 10 (95%), with another 4 coming in at number 11 (98%). The last two both were at number 20, in the art direction and song category.
For the winners, I predicted 13 correctly (54.17%), with another 4 eventual winners being ranked as my backups at number 2 (70%), 5 coming in within the top 3 (91.6%) and 2 falling at number 4 on my list, and thus being true surprises in the sound editing and documentary categories.
The chart below shows four sets of statistics. The blue line is simply the total percentage of nominees that I was correctly predicting at a given point in the year, with each nominee in all 24 categories being given equal rate. (Yes, even those hard to predict categories.) The yellow line does the same thing showing only the eventual winners.
The red and green lines show my “Close Scores”, where I give myself partial credit for my alternate choices, proportionate to their ranking at the time. (Click HERE for a more detailed explanation of how I calculate my Close Score.)
Of particular interest to those who watch my early predictions is the fact that 13 of the eventual winners were in my top 10 a year in advance ((54%), with another 2 winners coming in at the number 11 spot (62.5). By July, after I had finished my post-Cannes analysis, 19 of the eventual winners were in my top 10 (79%), with the eventual winner of 22 of the categories (91.6%) showing up somewhere on my longer list (the two categories where I was surprised were the Live Action Shorts and Documentary Shorts). Oddly, my predictions actually suffered a bit in December (see the dips in the green and yellow lines), probably as a result of the immense chatter that came about as casual Oscar observers and critics groups distracted me!
And now, an analysis of which films I had overestimated or underestimated:
Film
|
Actual Noms
|
Predicted Noms
|
Actual Wins
|
Predicted Wins
|
| Hugo |
11
|
11
|
5
|
3
|
| The Artist |
10
|
10
|
5
|
3
|
| The Iron Lady |
2
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
| The Descendants |
5
|
5
|
1
|
2
|
| The Help |
4
|
7
|
1
|
2
|
| Midnight In Paris |
4
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
| The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo |
5
|
3
|
1
|
0
|
| A Separation |
2
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
| The Muppets |
1
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
| Beginners, Rango, The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore |
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
| Undefeated, Saving Face, The Shore |
1
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
| War Horse |
6
|
7
|
0
|
2
|
| The Tree Of Life |
3
|
4
|
0
|
1
|
| Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes, Pina |
1
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
| The Tsunami And The Cherry Blossom, Tuba Atlantic |
1
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
| Moneyball |
6
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
| Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 |
3
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
| Albert Nobbs, Transformers: Dark Of The Moon |
3
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
| Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy |
3
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
| My Week With Marilyn |
2
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
| Bridesmaids |
2
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
| Drive |
1
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
| Jane Eyre, W.E., The Adventures Of Tintin: Secret Of The Unicorn, Kung Fu Panda 2, Puss In Boots, Chico & Rita, Hell And Back Again, In Darkness, Monsieur Lazhar, Footnote, La Luna, Wild Life, Incident In New Baghdad, The Barber Of Birmingham: Foot Soldier Of The Civil Rights Movement, Raju |
1
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
| A Better Life, The Ides Of March, Warrior, A Cat In Paris, Anonymous, Real Steel, Margin Call, Bullhead, Rio, If A Tree Falls: A Story Of The Earth Liberation Front, Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, God Is The Bigger Elvis, Dimanche/Sunday, A Morning Stroll, Pentecost, Time Freak |
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| J. Edgar, Super 8 |
0
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
| Shame, We Need To Talk About Kevin, 50/50, Win Win, Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life, Captain America: The First Avenger, Pirates Of The Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Project Nim, Buck, Bill Cunningham New York, Specky Four-Eyes, Paths Of Hate, In Tahrir Square: 18 Days Of Egypt’s Revolution, Witness, The Road Home, Sailcloth, The Roar Of The Sea |
0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
For the actual winners, I underestimated the number of awards that The Artist and Hugo would pick up, thinking that the recognition would be more spread out. In the nomination round, I underestimated Moneyball, Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close and The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo. The films that I overestimated were J. Edgar, Super 8 and The Help. There were 4 categories where my previously predicted winners didn’t even make the nomination list: Song, Sound Editing, Documentary Feature, and Live Action Short.
Best Picture And Director Nominees (Updated 1/24/12)
In the end, I correctly predicted The Artist as the winner, as well as 8 out of 9 nominees (88%) for Best Picture, with Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close making my top 10 (100%).
In the Best Director race, I correctly predicted The Artist again, and went 5 out of 5 in the nominations(100%).
Lead And Supporting Acting Nominations (Updated 1/25/12)
I correctly predicted Plummer and Spencer to win the supporting acting categories, but incorrectly had Clooney and Davis predicted over eventual winners Dujardin and Streep.
I correctly predicted 4 nominees (80%) in both the lead and supporting actress races, but only 3 nominees each (60%) in the male categories. Interestingly, most of the ladies also showed up quite early in my predictions (although not always in the right order), while I seemed to be slower to catch on to which men were getting the buzz. While several of the eventual snubs were true surprises to me, I do admit that I held on too long to the hopes of Leonardo DiCaprio and Armie Hammer in J. Edgar (a film that I loved, even if others didn’t).
Additionally, the male categories also had two places where I had predicted the eventual nominees, but took them out as time progressed. The first was Gary Oldman, who I had been predicting since April, but who I dropped to sixth place in December when he didn’t get any precursor nominations. (See the yellow line on the first graph). The second was in the supporting category, who I put into the top 5 in October, and then dropped in February, for pretty much the same reason. In the end, all of the nominees were in my top 10 for each category.
My earlier scores were higher for the lead categories than the supporting, which might be expected given that studios understandably showcase the star of the film in their early press releases, with the supporting characters often receiving recognition only after the film is ready to screen.
Original And Adapted Screenplay Nominees (Updated 1/27/12)
I correctly predicted both of the screenplay winners, as well as 4 of the 5 adapted screenplay nominees (80%), with the fifth being ranked 6. In the Original Screenplay race, I correctly predicted 3 of the 5 (60%), with Margin Call and A Separation showing up at numbers 8 and 9 on my list.
Animated, Documentary and Foreign Language Nominees, Submissions and Short Lists (Updated 1/31/12)
In the Animated Feature race, I correctly predicted the winner and 4 out of 5 nominees (80%), and might have done even better if I had trusted my instincts that the weak year for American animation might lead to two foreign animation nominees, and paid more attention to those who cautioned that the motion capture in Spielberg’s Tintin might not go over with the animation branch. I had left the film outside of my top 5 for most of the year, but when it was deemed eligible for submission in November I relented. Earlier in the year, 18 films were submitted in this race, and I correctly predicted 10 of them (55%), while 15 of them (83%) were in my longer list. The high profile nature of most of these films helped to give my high close scores much earlier than the other genre races.
For Documentaries, I seriously underestimated Harvey Weinstein’s influence over this branch, as I didn’t have Undefeated in either my predicted nominee or winner list. I predicted 2 out of 5 nominees (40%), and this is a category where my previously predicted winner (Project Nim) didn’t even make the list. Earlier in the year 15 films made the shortlist for this race, and I correctly predicted 3 of them (20%), while 7 of them (46%) were in my longer list. The decision of the documentary branch to snub most of the populist favorites meant that my close score didn’t rise until the short list had been announced. However, two of the eventual nominees did win prizes at last year’s Sundance festival, so I hope that by paying more attention to those trends I can score better next year.
In the Foreign Language category, I correctly predicted 4 out of 5 nominees (80%), with the fifth slot going to the film that I had placed at rank 6 (my first runner up). Earlier in the year, 9 films made the foreign language short list, and I correctly predicted 4 of them (44%), with all 9 (100%) having appeared on previous long lists that I had written. In terms of the country submission list: Of the 50 countries that I had predicted, I got 19 correct plus 2 that I’m giving myself partial credit for (I correctly predicted that Silent Sonata/Circus Fantasticus would be Slovenia’s entry, even though it was ultimately disqualified, and I had predicted that Seediq Bale would be entered, but thought it would come from Hong Kong rather than Taiwan). That makes my track record for choosing submissions 40%. As might be expected, my scores received a significant boost with the first update that I made after Cannes. The dip in the purple line in November represents when I moved Israel’s Footnote out of the top 5 (but still in the top 7), as new (but apparently untested) contenders came online.
Art Direction, Costume Design and Makeup Nominees and Short Lists (Updated 1/30/12)
Thanks to early set photos and the propensity that these categories have for period pieces, my “Close Score” was pretty high, even very early in the year.
In Art Direction, I correctly predicted Hugo to win, as well as 4 of the eventual 5 nominees (80%), with Midnight In Paris being the film that I underestimated (I had it ranked 20).
In Costume Design, incorrectly chose Hugo over eventual winner The Artist, but did correctly predicted 4 of the eventual 5 nominees (80%), with Anonymous coming in at number 10 in my previous rankings.
In Makeup, I correctly predicted the winner and 2 of the 3 eventual nominees (66%). Interestingly, I was actually predicting a makeup nomination for Albert Nobbs from March through November, but mistakenly backed down when reviews of the film began to surface, reminding us that these branches really do examine the quality of the craft itself, rather than the film as a whole. Earlier in the season, 7 films made the short list for Makeup consideration, and I correctly predicted 5 of them (71%), while 6 of them (86%) were in my longer list.
Cinematography, Film Editing and Visual Effects Nominees, Long And Short Lists (Updated 1/30/12)
In Cinematography, I correctly predicted all 5 of the eventual nominees (100%), and had a fairly high “Close Score” early on due to the famous cinematographers who were represented this year. Unfortunately, the Academy went with Hugo instead of The Tree Of Life for the win.
In Film Editing, I only went 3 for 5 (60%), and will try to remember next year just how much the Academy favors Best Picture contenders (The Descendants, Moneyball) even at the expense of films that draw attention to their editing (Drive, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy). Surprisingly, they did seem to go for the film that actually had the best editing when they gave The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo the win, which I wasn’t predicting.
In Visual Effects, the trend of rewarding best picture nominees over the film with the most groundbreaking effects continued as they gave the win to Hugo over my favorite, Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes. I correctly predicted 4 out of the 5 nominees (80%), and had a high “Close Score” throughout much of the year due to the summer release dates and popular advertising associated with most of the visual effects contenders. Earlier in the year, 15 films made the long list for Visual Effects consideration, and I correctly predicted 11 of them (73%), while all 15 of them (100%) were in my longer list, and my top 5 all remaining in the race. For the Short List, I correctly predicted 8 (80%), with all 10 of them showing up in my top 12 (100%), and my top 5 all remaining in the race.
Music and Sound Nominees, Submissions and Finalists (Updated 1/30/12)
Overall, I have decided that I need to listen to movies much more carefully than I have been.
In the Original Song race, I eventually predicted the correct winner, but only after several disappointments in this category earlier in the year. 39 songs made it onto the Academy’s long list. Of these, 28 of them (72%) had appeared in my previous predictions, and I thought that I was doing pretty well. Then the nominations came out and I predicted 0 out of 2 (0%), with the two nominees showing up at number 11 and 20 in my previous predictions. It’s possible that I would have scored better if this were a full category of 5 nominees, but it is also possible that I completely misunderstand what the song writers are looking for when they vote. (Note: The dip that you see in the red line in November represents the point at which I went from merely listing Rio and The Muppets by their movie title, to actually parsing out the individual songs that would make it. Clearly, I chose the wrong ones.)
In the Original Score race, I correctly predicted the winner as well as 3 of the eventual 5 nominees (60%), with the other two coming from my top ten. Earlier in the year, 97 films had made the Academy’s long list for this category, with many films not qualifying due to release dates, lack of sufficient original content, or the decision by some composers (such as Hans Zimmer) not to enter the fold. Of the 50 films that I had previously listed, 33 of them made the cut, with one additional entry that I had predicted for the 85th Oscars also making it in, giving me a track record of 67%.
In Sound Editing, I correctly predicted 3 of the five nominees (60%), but my previously predicted winner (Super 8) didn’t even make the list of nominees. In the end, my predicted winner War Horse lost out to Hugo.
In Sound Mixing, I correctly predicted 3 of the 5 nominees (60%) with all five coming from within my top ten. Here again, my predicted winner War Horse lost out to Hugo.
SHORTS! Animated, Documentary and Live Action Short Nominees, Submissions and Finalists (Updated 2/2/12)
Many of the professional Oscar sites don’t even bother looking at the shorts categories until after the nominees have been announced, but I rather enjoy speculating on these races. One reason is that I know that my predictions, whether right or wrong, really are my own, and haven’t been influenced by too many other voices. A second reason is that I truly believe that with enough experience and attention, there should be a way to predict these races just as there is with every other category.
In the Animated Short category, I had a bit of beginner’s luck, with The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore showing up in my predictions as early as April of the previous year. I correctly predicted 3 of the 5 nominees (60%). Earlier in the year correctly predicted 14 of the 45 submissions and am giving myself partial credit for two more --La Luna, which I had predicted for next year’s Oscars, and The Vermeers, which I had ranked highly but mis-categorized as a live action short, giving me a 33% prediction rate for the submission phase. For the Shortlist, I only predicted 1 correctly (and am again giving myself partial credit for La Luna), giving me a 15% prediction rate. However, 5 of the films were on my longer list (50%).
In the Documentary Short category I correctly predicted 3 of the 5 nominees. Earlier in the year, I correctly predicted 2 of the 8 films on the shortlist (25%). My predicted winner, The Tsunami And The Cherry Blossom, lost out to Saving Face.
In the Live Action Short category, I missed the eventual winner, but did correctly predicted 2 out of the 5 nominees (40%). Earlier in the year The Academy released a list of 10 films, and I had correctly predicted 0 of them (0%), although 4 had shown up on my previous long lists (40%). Unfortunately, I didn’t update this category until the day before nominations are announced, so the purple and orange lines in the graph don’t show my progress very well.
My general strategy for future Shorts predictions remains the same: Watch for entries to film festivals, with the added intention of giving special focus to the films that win the Student Academy Awards, as two of those made it into the live action race.
Overall, I would say that I did pretty well for my first year!
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