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Friday, December 30, 2011

85th Oscar Best Picture Updates (2012-2013 Awards Season) (12/30/11)


Every other blog on the planet is doing a list of their top ten films of the year, but since my year won’t finish until February (honestly, what’s up with these limited releases?), and since I’m famous for looking into my crystal ball anyway, I’ve decided that my New Year’s present to all of you will be to update my best picture predictions for NEXT YEAR’s Oscar race. Some of these films are just going into production, but we are already beginning to see which ones are early year releases, and which ones have staked out November or December dates in preparation for their Oscar glory. We’ve also gotten some of the entries for the Berlin and Sundance Film Festivals, so I have added a few of those that looked interesting based upon their descriptions.

Here are today’s rankings for the 85th Oscar Best Picture race (2012-2013 Awards Season), with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry. And Happy New Year!



1. Lincoln (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1)
2. The Master (New)
3. The Dark Knight Rises (previous rank 2)
4. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (previous rank 5)
5. Django Unchained (New)
6. Life Of Pi (previous rank 7)
7. Les Miserables (previously listed in 86th Oscar race, rank 14)
8. Brave (previous rank 41)
9. Gravity (New)

Then:
10. Cloud Atlas (previous rank 19)



Alternates:
11. The Great Gatsby (previous rank 16)
12. Anna Karenina (previous rank 14)
13. Hyde Park On Hudson (previous rank 29)
14. Inside Llewyn Davis (New)
15. Twelve Years A Slave (previously listed in 87th Oscar race, rank 13)
16. The Silver Linings Playbook (previously listed in 86th Oscar race, rank 39)
17. Hands Of Stone (previous rank 8)
18. Argo (New)
19. Cosmopolis (previous rank 30)
20. Lay The Favorite (New)
21. Great Expectations (New)
22. Dali (previous rank 25)
23. Macbett: The Caribbean Macbeth (previous rank 6)
24. The Grandmasters (previous rank 9)
25. Wettest County (previous rank 18)
26. On The Road (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 25)
27. Prometheus (previous rank 46)
28. Moonrise Kingdom (previous rank 32)
29. The Danish Girl (previous rank 10)
30. Great Hope Springs (previous rank 15)

31. The Paperboy (New)
32. Gangster Squad (New)
33. Savages (previous rank 33)
34. The Place Beyond The Pines (previously listed in 86th Oscar race, rank 1)
35. World War Z (New)
36. Kill Bin Laden (Untitled International Thriller) (New)
37. Nero Fiddled (previous rank 44)
38. Wuthering Heights (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 42)
39. The Burial (Untitled Terrence Malick Project) (New)
40. Midnight’s Children (New)
41. Dark Shadows (New)
42. Only God Forgives (New)
43. The Man From UNCLE (New)
44. Flight (previously listed in 87th Oscar race, rank 41)
45. The Bell Jar (previous rank 17)
46. Brothers In Arms (previous rank 28)
47. The Words (New)
48. The Girl (previous rank 43)
49. Hemingway & Fuentes (New)
50. What Maisie Knew (New)

Just missing the cut: Cogan’s Trade, Gambit, Low Life, The Absinthe Drinkers, Being Flynn, The Third Act, Quartet, Savannah, My Wild Life, Darling Companion, The Odd Life Of Timothy Green, 47 Ronin, Salmon Fishing In The Yemen, The Dictator.

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See predictions for other categories at the 85th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  

17 comments:

  1. Actually, the project hasn't really been called Kill Bin Laden yet.

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  2. @Anonymous, Thanks for this. I've seen it referred to like this so many times that I keep forgetting it's not the real title. I added the current IMDB title "Untitled International Thriller", but I'm also keeping the other one since it's the only way I'll remember which film I was thinking about. LOL!

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  3. Interesting set of predictions. I think (as you have predicted) Lincoln and The Master (assuming it is released in 2012) have to be considered the frontrunners. I think the "blockbuster slot" will come back in 2012, but I think the Academy is done with Middle Earth in the major categories (except maybe Best Supporting Actor for Ian McKellen). So I think The Dark Knight Rises is the blockbuster of the nominees. Then based on pedigree I am predicting Django Unchained, Les Miserables and Anna Karenina. Other than that 2012 looks to be one of the best years for cinema in recent memory. Hopefully that translates to an interesting Oscar race.

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  4. Thanks Ryan. I've been wondering myself whether the Academy might pass up The Hobbit this time. After ROTK won so many awards, are they really going to be blown away again. I'm not brave enough to take it out of my top 10 just yet, but very well might once we know more about some of the other contenders.

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  5. Hobit will get some noms but I'm with Ryan McKellen might win a supporting one if his part is prominent enough. Other than that they might reward Datk Knight for all three films if it turn out good.

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  6. Intriguing 2013 predictions especially with two major blockbusters in the running for Best Picture. I guess it's possible that the Academy will reward Nolan for his Batman trilogy as a whole but we will see, I still have some doubts this will be able to top TDK.

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  7. @Joel & Castor, If The Dark Knight Rises doesn't get a BP nomination, there is going to be hell to pay, regardless of whether it is the best in the series or not. TDK is usually the reason that is given for expanding the category beyond 5, so if the third installment misses under the new rules, they might as well go back to 5 nominees that are all biopics and indie films that only I love, because they will have lost the young hip demographic forever. I mean seriously, just look at how many additional hits you get whenever you mention TDKR on your blog!

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  8. Great write up - I'm really excited about a lot of the 2012 releases. I think The Master got bumped to 2013 :(

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  9. Thanks Alex! IMDB says it's in post-production, and while they've got it listed as a 2013 film, the release date says 2012 (USA). So I'm thinking that it may premiere at one of the late 2012 film festivals, get a qualifying run in LA, and then actually hit most theaters in 2013. Not that IMDB is always right, of course, but this is the same path There Will Be Blood took, so I'm thinking that's how it will happen.

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  10. What about giving Anne Hathaway some love in the Best Supporting Actress category for The Dark Knight Rises? Great things are coming from the studio about her performance, and it seems there will be a big push behind her. Apparently it's something special.

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    1. I can see her making my long list, but unless she is Heath Ledger good, I'm thinking that they won't really go for it... I admit that I haven't been following all the TDKR stuff as closely as other folks have.

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  11. I dunno man, Best Supporting Actress is very unpredictable. No one would have thought a movie like Bridesmaids would get a nomination. I also think Jenniffer Lawrence has a decent chance at Best Actress for The Hunger Games. It looks like she's knocked it out of the park, and it's not a simple character.

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    1. Very true about the Bridesmaids Nom!

      I will give some attention to both Hathaway and Lawrence, since they're both previous nominees. I hope to update my acting predictions for next year sometime in the next few weeks, and for sure before this year's ceremony ends!

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  12. Anna Karenina is going to be experimental. Not standard period piece fare. Just a heads up. Gosling has a small role in The Place Beyond the Pines.

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    1. Interesting. Does that make Cooper the lead?

      Good to know about the experimental nature of Anna Karenina. The cast looks really great to me!

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  13. It's not only because I am a fan that I am saying it (I do believe it stands a chance) but Hunger Games should at least be in the top 50. It might be an adaptation of a young adult novel but it is no Twilight. The story is amazing, Gary Ross is an amazing screenplay writer and director, Jennifer Lawrence is a great actress. I'd bet on a nomination (but I'll watch the movie before I actually put 20 box on it.)

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    1. Now that Rooney Mara has been nominated, I actually think Lawrence's chances improve a little bit, since they're obviously willing to go with some different types of material, and Lawrence is a past nominee. But I'm still thinking that a March release date puts this out of contention (although you might be right that it should be in the top 50, especially for Lawrence and some of the technical categories).

      I'm noticing that Catching Fire is listed as a November 2013 release date, which seems like a much better chance of being remembered by the Academy, presuming it turns out as well as we all hope it does.

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