Saturday, February 18, 2012

85th Oscar Supporting Actress Updates (2012-2013 Awards Season) (2/18/12)

The supporting actress category is a difficult one for me to predict this far out. The names that are being thrown around so far seem to focus on returning nominees, but the Academy’s actual track record shows a strong tendency to acknowledge newcomers and break through roles. Unfortunately, we won’t know which ones until after the films have been screened. (Imagine that!)

Probably my most controversial decision this round was to move Sally Field out of the top 5. Despite the inherent baitiness of the role, Steven Spielberg has not directed an actress to a nomination since The Color Purple in 1985, and I can easily see Lincoln focusing mostly on the boys and their politics. Since she’s already won two Oscars (and in the lead category at that), I’m also not sure that they will feel that they owe her a nomination unless she really knocks it out of the park. Of course, it’s also possible that I could wake up tomorrow to find a new trailer or article in my reader that pushes her over the top, but for now I’m comfortable being part of the minority that questions whether she will make it.

Hollywood also likes to reward child actors in the supporting race, but I am concerned that Quvenzhane Wallis might be too much of a lead to pull off the category fraud, which is why she did not make my top five. Still, if her story is compelling enough and they decide they want to reward her, I’m sure they’ll find a way.

1. Amy Adams in The Master (Predicted Winner) (New)
2. Samantha Barks in Les Miserables (New)
3. Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables (New)
4. Annette Bening in Imogene (New)
5. Kirsten Dunst in Red Light Winter (New)

6. Sally Field in Lincoln (previous rank 1)
7. Helena Bonham Carter in Great Expectations (previous rank 25)
8. Nicole Kidman in The Paperboy (New)
9. Vanessa Redgrave in Song For Marion (New)
10. Tabu in Life Of Pi (previous rank 10)
11. Halle Berry in Cloud Atlas (previous rank 4)
12. Quvenzhane Wallis in Beasts Of The Southern Wild (previously listed in lead, rank 12)
13. Olivia Williams in Hyde Park On Hudson (New)
14. Penelope Cruz in Nero Fiddled (previous rank 29)
15. Kristin Scott Thomas in Only God Forgives (New)
16. Amy Adams in On The Road (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 22)
17. Emma Thompson in Effie (previous rank 34)
18. Carey Mulligan in Inside Llewyn Davis (New)
19. Maggie Smith in Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 14)
20. Martina Gedeck in The Door (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 19)
21. Kerry Washington in Django Unchained (New)
22. Isla Fisher in The Great Gatsby (New)
23. Jennifer Lawrence in The Silver Linings Playbook (New)
24. Kirsten Dunst in On The Road (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 50)
25. Julianne Moore in Being Flynn (previous rank 14)

26. Anne Hathaway in The Dark Knight Rises (new)
27. Jessica Chastain in Wettest County (previous rank 26)
28. Tilda Swinton in Moonrise Kingdom (New)
29. Kate Hudson in The Reluctant Fundamentalist (New)
30. Juliette Binoche in Cosmopolis (previously listed in lead, rank 36)
31. Olivia Williams in Anna Karenina (New)
32. Catherine Zeta-Jones in Rock Of Ages (New)
33. Whitney Houston in Sparkle (role previously listed in 87th Oscar race, rank 3)
34. Ellen Page in The East (New)
35. Mia Wasikowska in Wettest County (previous rank 30)
36. Susan Sarandon in Cloud Atlas (previous rank 12)
37. Frances McDormand in Moonrise Kingdom (New)
38. Charlotte Rampling in The Eye Of The Storm (previously listed in 84th Oscar lead race, rank 32)
39. Gillian Anderson in Mr. Morgan’s Last Love (New)
40. Olivia Colman in Hyde Park On Hudson (New)
41. Jessica Chastain in Untitled International Thriller (Kill Bin Laden) (New)
42. Julia Roberts in Mirror Mirror (previous rank 31)
43. Nicole Kidman in Stoker (previous rank 32)
44. Helena Bonham Carter in Les Miserables (New)
45. Jacki Weaver in The Silver Linings Playbook (New)
46. Kristin Scott Thomas in Salmon Fishing In The Yemen (previously listed n 84th Oscar race, rank 42)
47. Marion Cotillard in The Dark Knight Rises (New)
48. Susan Sarandon in Arbitrage (previously listed in lead, rank 44)
49. Charlize Theron in Snow White And The Huntsman (previous rank 35)
50. Michelle Pfeiffer in Dark Shadows (previous rank 46)

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Supporting Actress predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Lead Actor, Lead Actress and Supporting Actor predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 85th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th    


  1. Awesome I'd love to see Amy finally pick up the statue!!! Its about time. I watched Junebug this weekend and its awesome!!!

    1. Yeah, I thought you might like that. :)

      She really does have a good chance this year, if the picture ends up being as baity as it sounds.

  2. Interesting lineup. Your website is going to be a treasure mine, next week when we run our annual movie fantasy draft ;)

  3. Thanks Castor! If I'm not working on Saturday I may sign up for the draft--would be hard to bid strategically if I'm at work. (I will get my schedule later today to know for sure.) I know that several of your teams already read my site too, so hopefully they'll have the inside track. ;)

  4. Wow, Vanessa Redgrave's name showing up again after this year's rave reviews for her performance in Coriolanus. I haven't heard about Song for Marion but I like that title.

    @ Joel – you haven't seen Junebug?? Amy is so great in it, I'm sure you'll enjoy it.

    1. Thanks Ruth. Song For Marion was recently picked up by the Weinstein Co., which is one of the reasons I have it placed so high. (Then again, so was Coriolanus, but still...)

  5. A year out from the actual ceremony, this category looks extremely weak so your theory about newcomers being a major force in this category seems very relevant this time. Your statistic about actresses in Spielberg films was very surprising. I also never thought of the Beasts of the Southern Wild lead submitting as supporting but now that you mention it that is probably what will happen. I highly doubt the film becomes a contender at the Oscars considering how films from last year's Sundance fared at this year's Oscars.

    1. Thanks Ryan. They usually do have several new ladies in this category, and as I look at last year, I'm not sure that anyone other than Spencer was really in the conversation this early. Bejo and CHastain weren't really noticed until Cannes, McCarthy was a complete surprise, and folks who had their eye on Albert Nobbs mostly were guessing Wiakowski's part.

      In fairness to Speilberg, his movies have been more male focused, but it does show a trend that could continue.

      Such a shame what they do with child actors, and it will be interesting to see just how far the category fraud can be pushed in the future!

  6. I'm excited for Anne Hathaway in both The Dark Knight Rises and Les Miserables. I think she'll be great.

    1. Indeed. I think she'll actually be more fun to watch in TDKR, but her awards chances are probably with Les Mis.

  7. I'm just wondering if Imogene will be strong enough to earn Bening a statute. She's an awesome actress and I don't want to see her become the second Peter O'Toole...

    1. She's a real possibility. The film is getting lots of press because it stars Kristen Wiig, but what drew my attention was that it was from the directors of American Splendor, The Extra Man and Cinema Verite. It looks like Bening may have several scenes where she gets to "lost control", and I think being in the supporting category may help her since she always seems to get upstaged when in lead.