Even though the theme of this blog is that it’s “Never Too Early” to start making Oscar predictions, I suppose that it’s also “Never Too Late.” In that spirit, I took one last look at my predictions to see if I wanted to change anything.
I decided that I only needed to make two changes. First, I am moving The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore back into the winners position. Regular readers of this blog know that I had been predicting it to win since July, but got scared of a Pixar rebellion earlier this month and placed La Luna into the lead instead. However, based on what I’m hearing from people who have seen all the shorts, I’m putting Flying Books back for my final predictions.
The other race that has kept me up at night is Lead Actor. Prior to the nominations, I had George Clooney first, Brad Pitt in second and Jean Dujardin in third. That, of course, was before Dujardin won both the SAG and the BAFTA.
I’ve decided to stick with Clooney for the win, on the theory that he has more pull in Hollywood, and there has to be a “surprise” somewhere during the night. I have moved Dujardin to second place though.
You can find more information about most of the races by clicking on the links for the various categories:
Final Predictions:
Best Picture: The Artist Best Director: Michel Hazanaviciu for The Artist Lead Actress: Viola Davis in The Help Lead Actor: George Clooney in The Descendants Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer in The Help Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer in Beginners Original Screenplay: Woody Allen for Midnight In Paris Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash for The Descendants Animated Feature: Gore Verbinski for Rango Documentary Feature: Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel for Pina Foreign Language: Asghar Farhadi for A Separation Art Direction: Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo for Hugo Costume Design: Sandy Powell for Hugo Makeup:Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland for The Iron Lady Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki for The Tree Of Life Film Editing: Thelma Schoonmaker for Hugo Visual Effects: Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett for Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes Song: Bret McKenzie for “Man Or Muppet” from The Muppets Score: Ludovic Bource for The Artist Sound Editing: Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom for War Horse Sound Mixing: Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson for War Horse Animated Short: William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg for The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore Documentary Short: Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen for The Tsunami And The Cherry Blossom Live Action Short: Hallvar Witzo for Tuba Atlantic
Predictions Tally:
Three Wins: The Artist, Hugo
Two Wins: The Help, The Descendants, War Horse
One Win: Beginners, Midnight In Paris, Rango, A Separation, Pina, The Tree Of Life, The Iron Lady, The Muppets, Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes, Tuba Atlantic, The Tsunami And The Cherry Blosom, The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
Update: For my final predictions, I changed my mind and decided to go back to The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore!
I correctly predicted 3 out of 5 of these nominees (60%). Although I have been predicting The Fantastic Flying Books to win since July, I think it is time that I get realistic and put Pixar’s La Luna in first place, even though I think it is cheating that a short which will play in front of next year’s Brave doesn’t have to wait until next year to qualify.
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! To see how I am doing in each race, check out myTrack Record Page. See Animated Short predictions for other yearsHERE. If you’re into animation, you might also like theAnimated Features. If you’re really into shorts, check out theDocumentary Shorts andLive Action Shorts. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
This is my first year doing Oscar predictions online, and I have to admit that the sudden jolt with which the race speeds up caught me a bit off guard, between the onslaught of late releases and the immediacy of the first precursors being announced.
The Animated Shorts category moved especially quickly this year, moving from the submission phase to the short list before I was able to finish an entry in between. Nevertheless, of the 45 submissions I correctly predicted 14 and am giving myself partial credit for two more --La Luna, which I had predicted for next year’s Oscars, and The Vermeers, which I had ranked highly but mis-categorized as a live action short, giving me a 33% prediction rate for the submission phase. For the Shortlist, I didn’t do nearly as well. I predicted 1 correctly (and am again giving myself partial credit for La Luna), giving me a 15% prediction rate. However, 5 of the films were on my longer list (50%). You can see how I’m doing in the other races on my Tracker Record Page.
The best news, however, is that the film that I have been predicting to win since July (and been predicting to get nominated since April) made the cut, so I’m going to hold on tight and hope that The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore ends up taking home gold. If it does, I’m pretty sure that I will have been the earliest online site to have called it!
Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Animated Short race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.
1. William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg for The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1) 2. Enrico Casarosa for La Luna (previously ranked 4) 3. Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby for Wild Life (New) 4. Jean-Claude Rozec for Specky Four-Eyes (previous rank 12) 5. Damian Nenow for Paths Of Hate (previous rank 31)
Alternates: 6. Juan Pablo Zaramella for Luminaris (previous rank 45) 7. Patrick Doyon for Dimanche (Sunday) (New) 8. Grant Orchard for A Morning Stroll (New) 9. Matt O’Callaghan for I Tawt I Taw A Puddy Tat (New) 10. Martin Clapp for The Magic Piano (New)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Animated Short predictions for other yearsHERE. If you’re into animation, you might also like theAnimated Features. If you’re really into shorts, check out theDocumentary Shorts andLive Action Shorts. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
It’s been ten days since animated short directors had to turn in their paperwork to the academy. That means that all of the films in this category have already been seen (not by me, mind you, but by someone). So it feels like time for another update.
Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Animated Short race (2011-2012 awards season), with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry. The top 2/3 of this list are juried film festival winners or have been confirmed to have made a qualifying run, although I am not certain whether all of them comply with the Academy’s motion capture rules. Additionally, most other websites that talk about this race are predicting La Luna, but it looks to me like Pixar is saving that one for next year.
1. William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg for The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1) 2. David O’Reilly for The External World (previous rank 2) 3. Michael Please for The Eagleman Stag (previous rank 3) 4. Stevie Werners for The Ballad Of Nessie (previous rank 5) 5. Johannes Welland and Uwe Heidschoetter for The Little Boy And The Beast (Der Keline Und Das Biest) (previous rank 7)
Alternates: 6. Patrick Jean for Pixels (previous rank 6) 7. Pedro Rivero for Birdboy (previous rank 12) 8. Perry Chen for Ingrid Pitt: Beyond The Forest (New) 9. Alister Lockhart and Patrick Sarell for Nullarbor (previous rank 13) 10. Hendrick Dusollier for Babel (previous rank 11) 11. Gary Rydstrom for Hawaiian Vacation (previous rank 10) 12. Jean-Claude Rozec for Specky Four Eyes (previous rank 8) 13. Kirsten Lepore for Bottle (previous rank 9) 14. Dean Fleischer-Camp for Marcel The Shell With Shoes On (previous rank 27) 15. Kamil Polak for The Lost Town Of Switez (previous rank 14) 16. Jose Miguel Ribeiro for A Journey To Cape Verde (Viagem A Cabo Verde) (New) 17. Bernardo Warman and Shaofu Zhang for Dragonboy (previous rank 15) 18. Zach Hyer for Correspondence (previous rank 16) 19. Stephen Quay and Timothy Quay for Maska (previous rank 17) 20 Blu for Big Bang Big Boom (previous rank 18) 21. Nicolas Matji for La Bruxa (previous rank 19) 22. Kei Oyama for Hand Soap (previous rank 20) 23. Izabela Plucinska for Esterhazy (previous rank 21) 24. Jason Carpenter for The Renter (previous rank 22) 25. Iain Gardner for The Tannery (previous rank 25) 26. Wendy Chandler and Susan Danta for Heirlooms (New) 27. David Chai for Enrique Wrecks The World (previous rank 24) 28. Beatriz Herrera for Ponkina (New) 29. Max Porter and Ru Kuwahata for Something Left, Something Taken (previous rank 23) 30. Stephen Irwin for Moxie (New) 31. Damian Nenow for Paths Of Hate (New) 32. Paul Emile Boucher for Pixels (New) 33. Eyes On The Step (previous rank 47) 34. Kwesi Davis for Take Too Long (New) 35. Simon Cahn and Spike Jonze for To Die Near You (Mouir Aupres De Toi) (previous rank 31) 36. Stefan Leuchtenberg and Martin Wallner for The Lost And Found Box Of Human Sensation (New) 37. Steve Nguyen and Daisuke Suzuki for Hibakusha (New) 38. Jurgis Krasons for Norit Krupi (To Swallow A Toad) (previous rank 26) 39. Nandita Jain for Kahanikar (The Storyteller) (previous rank 29) 40. Mike Rauch and Tim Rauch for Danny & Annie (previous rank 28) 41. Avner Geller and Stevie Lewis for Defective Detective (previous rank 32) 42. Kibwe Tavares for Robots of Brixton (New) 43. Emma Magenta for The Gradual Demise Of Phillipa Finch (previous rank 30) 44. Kelly Wilson for The Snowman (previous rank 33) 45. Juan Pablo Zaramella for Luminaris (previous rank 34) 46. Christopher Jarvis for The Birds Upstairs (previous rank 35) 47. Tak Hoon Kim for A Purpleman (previous rank 36) 48. Jaime Chapin for Frames (previous rank 37) 49. Thor Ochsner for 1989 (When I Was 5 Years Old) (previous rank 38) 50. Martin Sen for New Digs (previous rank 39) As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Animated Short predictions for other yearsHERE. If you’re into animation, you might also like theAnimated Features. If you’re really into shorts, check out theDocumentary Shorts andLive Action Shorts. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
I realize that many people are just beginning to do their predictions for the 84th Oscar race, but today is October 1, the day when the 85th Oscar race (2012-2013 awards season) officially begins for three categories: The Animated Shorts, The Live Action Shorts, and the Foreign Language race!
I hope to do an update for each of these categories in the next month or so, but in honor of the beginning of the season, I thought I would open this up for an Open Thread.
My blogger stats say that I’ve had visitors to this blog from 99 countries--which is just short of 100. And I’m betting that each of you has better film contacts in your nation or region than I do. So I’d like to ask: Have you heard of any upcoming films from your country that should be on my radar for next year? Have a favorite home-grown director that has been working on a new project? Let me know in the comments, and they may become an early front-runner in my next predictions!
Similarly, I know that there are many short filmmakers who read this blog, and that very often it is hard to get publicity out about your films. Let me know what you’re working on, and you might just find a new fan! Have an idea of what is being submitted to film festivals over the next year? Let me know that as well.
Got a prediction for another category? Let me know that too.
Here’s to another 85 years!
See predictions for other categories at the 85th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
EDITORS NOTE: These predictions were made in July 2011 and reflect what my thinking was at that time. I have updated my predictions since then, but leave these on the blog for a historical record. For the most updated list of predictions, go to the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog.
Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Animated Short race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.
1. William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg for The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 2) 2. David O’Reilly for The External World (previous rank 3) 3. Michael Please for The Eagleman Stag (previous rank 5) 4. Enrico Casarosa for La Luna (New) 5. Stevie Wermers for The Ballad Of Nessie (previous rank 4)
Alternates: 6. Patrick Jean for Pixels (previous rank 8) 7. Johannes Weiland and Uwe Heldschoetter for The Little Boy And The Beast (Der Kleine Und Das Biest) (previous rank 6) 8. Jean-Claude Rozec for Specky Four-Eyes (previous rank 7) 9. Kirsten Lepore for Bottle (previous rank 11) 10. Gary Rydstrom for Hawaiian Vacation (previous rank 1) 11. Hendrick Dusollier for Babel (previous rank 12) 12. Pedro Rivero for Birdboy (previous rank 14) 13. Alister Lockhart and Patrick Sarell for Nullarbor (New) 14. Kamil Polak for The Lost Town Of Switez (New) 15. Bernardo Warman and Shaofu Zhang for Dragonboy (New) 16. Zach Hyer for Correspondence (New) 17. Stephen Quay and Timothy Quay for Maska (previous rank 15) 18. Blu for Big Bang Big Boom (New) 19. Nicolais Matji for La Bruxa (previous rank 9) 20. Kei Oyama for Hand Soap (previous rank 10) 21. Izabela Plucinska for Esterhazy (previous rank 13) 22. Jason Carpenter for The Renter (previous rank 18) 23. Max Porter and Ru Kuwahata for Something Left, Something Taken (previous rank 16) 24. David Chai for Enrique Wrecks The World (previous rank 17) 25. Iain Gardner for The Tannery (New) 26. Jose Miguel Ribeiro for A Journey To Cape Verde (Viagem A Cabo Verde) (New) 27. Dean Fleischer-Camp for Marcel The Shell With Shoes On (previous rank 19) 28. Wendy Chandler and Susan Danta for Heirlooms (previous rank 20) 29. The Rauch Brothers for Danny & Annie (previous rank 22) 30. Avner Geller and Stevie Lewis for Defective Detective (New) 31. Simon Cahn and Spike Jonze for To Die Near You (Mourir Aupres De Toi) (previous rank 36) 32. Jon Heder and Nick Peterson for Drained (previous rank 21) 33. Emma Magenta for The Gradual Demise Of Phillipa Finch (previous rank 23) 34. Kelly Wilson for The Snowman (previous rank 25) 35. Juan Pablo Zaramella for Luminaris (previous rank 30) 36. Christopher Jarvis for The Birds Upstairs (previous rank 43) 37. Jaime Chapin for Frames (previous rank 24) 38. Thor Ochsner for 1989 (When I Was 5 Years Old) (New) 39. Martin Sen for New Digs (New) 40. James Barfield for Cookie Crooks (previous rank 26) 41. Tyler J. Kupferer for The Girl And The Fox (previous rank 27) 42. Melinda Fule for Deviled Eggs (previous rank 28) 43. Tod Poison for Escape Of The Gingerbread Man!!! (previous rank 29) 44. Bianca Ansems for Playing Ghost (previous rank 31) 45. Gabriel Achanzar for The Egg (previous rank 32) 46. Sanchita Islam and Andy Frain for White Wall (previous rank 33) 47. Eric Falardeau for Crepuscule (previous rank 34) 48. Emily Dean for Forget Me Not (previous rank 35) 49. Ernie Berger for House Broken (previous rank 37) 50. Dawn Brown for Zooland (previous rank 39)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Animated Short predictions for other years HERE. If you’re into animation, you might also like the Animated Features. If you’re really into shorts, check out the Documentary Shorts and Live Action Shorts. See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE. Switch to another year: 84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
