One Year Anniversary And A Look Back At My Record

Don’t you just hate it when blogs announce their anniversaries and then you feel required to write something supportive in the comments? Honestly, what really changed between when you had 364 days of ramblings to read and when you have 365?

By the way, did I mention that today is my one year anniversary of this blog? That’s right! 365 days of predictions, reviews and general awards madness, all piped into your homes, offices and mobile devices via the interwebs! Actually, I made it extra hard on myself because this was a leap year, so I actually had to wait 366 days. Talk about dedication!

Luckily, because my blog is about early predictions, I am able to use this opportunity to look back at my track record, which allows me to provide some content, instead of just self-congratulation. The chart below shows my statistics for the year (Click HERE for a more detailed explanation of how I calculate my Close Score.)




In the final analysis, I correctly predicted 83 of the 119 eventual nominees (69.75%), and 13 out of 24 eventual winners (54.17%). 113 of the eventual nominees were in my top 10 (95%), with another 4 coming in at number 11 (98%). The last two both were at number 20, in the art direction and song category.

For the winners, I predicted 13 correctly (54.17%), with another 4 eventual winners being ranked as my backups at number 2 (70%), 5 more coming in within the top 3 (91.6%) and 2 falling at number 4 on my lists, and thus being true surprises in the sound editing and documentary categories.

Of particular interest to those who watch my early predictions is the fact that 13 of the eventual winners were ranked in my top 10 lists a year in advance (54%), with another 2 winners coming in at the number 11 spot (62.5). By July, after I had finished my post-Cannes analysis, 19 of the eventual winners were in my top 10 (79%), with the eventual winner of 22 of the categories (91.6%) showing up somewhere on my longer list (the two categories where I was surprised were the Live Action Shorts and Documentary Shorts). Oddly, my predictions actually suffered a bit in December (see the dips in the green and yellow lines), probably as a result of the immense chatter that came about as casual Oscar observers and critics groups distracted me!

So while I need to work on my skills at the end of the race, I am pretty proud of the early prediction work that goes on at this blog during the rest of the year!

For even more details on how I did on each race (and enough statistics to make your head explode), check out my Track Record Page.

Find predictions for all years here: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  
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