Thursday, March 8, 2012

One Year Anniversary And A Look Back At My Record

Don’t you just hate it when blogs announce their anniversaries and then you feel required to write something supportive in the comments? Honestly, what really changed between when you had 364 days of ramblings to read and when you have 365?

By the way, did I mention that today is my one year anniversary of this blog? That’s right! 365 days of predictions, reviews and general awards madness, all piped into your homes, offices and mobile devices via the interwebs! Actually, I made it extra hard on myself because this was a leap year, so I actually had to wait 366 days. Talk about dedication!

Luckily, because my blog is about early predictions, I am able to use this opportunity to look back at my track record, which allows me to provide some content, instead of just self-congratulation. The chart below shows my statistics for the year (Click HERE for a more detailed explanation of how I calculate my Close Score.)




In the final analysis, I correctly predicted 83 of the 119 eventual nominees (69.75%), and 13 out of 24 eventual winners (54.17%). 113 of the eventual nominees were in my top 10 (95%), with another 4 coming in at number 11 (98%). The last two both were at number 20, in the art direction and song category.

For the winners, I predicted 13 correctly (54.17%), with another 4 eventual winners being ranked as my backups at number 2 (70%), 5 more coming in within the top 3 (91.6%) and 2 falling at number 4 on my lists, and thus being true surprises in the sound editing and documentary categories.

Of particular interest to those who watch my early predictions is the fact that 13 of the eventual winners were ranked in my top 10 lists a year in advance (54%), with another 2 winners coming in at the number 11 spot (62.5). By July, after I had finished my post-Cannes analysis, 19 of the eventual winners were in my top 10 (79%), with the eventual winner of 22 of the categories (91.6%) showing up somewhere on my longer list (the two categories where I was surprised were the Live Action Shorts and Documentary Shorts). Oddly, my predictions actually suffered a bit in December (see the dips in the green and yellow lines), probably as a result of the immense chatter that came about as casual Oscar observers and critics groups distracted me!

So while I need to work on my skills at the end of the race, I am pretty proud of the early prediction work that goes on at this blog during the rest of the year!

For even more details on how I did on each race (and enough statistics to make your head explode), check out my Track Record Page.

Find predictions for all years here: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  
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28 comments:

  1. Awesome work David! Your predictions have been awesome help to me in both Oscar predictions and on Anomalous Material's Fantasy Drafts.

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    1. Thanks Shep! I had thought about joining the fantasy draft, but I ended up having to work on the day they did the picking, but hopefully I helped to give you the extra boost to take the win!

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  2. Congrats man! Keep up the good work.

    I have to say, I get quite a kick out of the "Close Score" concept. This is what you call "Takin' It to New Heights" LOL

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    1. Thanks man. Yeah, my stats get a little obsessive-compulsive at times, but I wanted to have some way for me to look back at the past and see if I just barely missed out by predicting someone like Tilda Swinton or Michael Fassbender for that last spot, and thus missing out because of just bad luck, versus the areas where I need to really change the way I think about the predictions overall, like with some of the shorts categories.

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  3. You must have a crystal ball or something :D Congrats on your blog-aversary and awesome stats, man!

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    1. Thanks Ruth. I'm secretly a magician and can see the future, but threw in a few wrong answers in the hopes that no one would catch on! Hahaha!

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  4. Excellent work David. I also extensively used your early predictions for 2013 for the draft ;) Hopefully, you are improving year after year ahah! Happy blog-anniversary by the way.

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    1. Thanks Castor. Hopefully they'll serve you well in the draft too! And you'll score even better if my predictions are getting closer! Thanks again for being such a great commenter on so many sites.

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  5. Congrats on the blog anniversary! Such a helpful site, this is! And those are some great stats...I'm expecting 100% for everything next year (no pressure...)

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    1. Thanks Stevee. I'm pretty sure I should be able to improve quickly enough to get 100% for you next year! Hahaha!

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  6. I think you'll get better at this as you go along, though you're definitely not doing too bad so far. Congrats on your first year!

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    1. Thanks! I'm sure there are some silly mistakes that I made this first year that I can avoid in the future.

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  7. I love the stats! Am also fascinated to follow the upcoming year through Oscar Sunday.

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    1. Thanks Katie. The stats keep me honest, so that I don't try to claim hat I did better than I actually did!

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  8. Well, I have only one thing to say: MAZAL TOV!

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    1. Thank you my friend. You've been one of my most consistent readers since the beginning!

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    2. So are you too my blog. I'll defenitly put you in my "Thank You List" when my blog will celebrate it's 1st Anniversary next month!

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    3. Thanks! I started to make one of those lists, but I'm always afraid that I'll end up forgetting someone, and then I ran out of time. Maybe for year two!

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  9. Happy one year!

    You do some amazing work on this blog. I don't know how you manage to keep up with so many categories in advance, but it is inspiring. Keep it up!

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    1. Thanks! My secret weapon is spreadsheets. I use my own subjectivity for the actual rankings, but the spreadsheets are essential for remembering which films are coming up, and who is starring in each of them.

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  10. Impressive man! Keep up the good work and congratulations on the birthday/anniversary!

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    1. Thanks Pete! I'm studying for my next round of updates as we speak!

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  11. Huge congratulations on your anniversary! I'm fairly new to your blog, but that doesn't mean I'm not blown away by the predictions you do here. You have such encyclopaedic knowledge and analytical super powers!

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    1. Thank you Jaina! I'm enjoying your site too, and love that you do more of the personal reflections that allow me to tap into another side of my personality.

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  12. It's almost like you're developing some kind of science here in your early predictions. I find it fascinating and enjoy the fresh and different perspective that you bring to predicting Oscar winners.

    Happy 1 Year Anniversary!

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    1. Thanks Kristin. I do think of it little bit like a science at times, trying to think of how the Academy might react and keeping that somewhat separate from my own like or dislike of each film.

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  13. Just started coming here, but since I love the Oscars and award season I'll be back here plenty!

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    1. Welcome Max! Hope I can keep this interesting for you!

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