Friday, February 24, 2012

It’s Never Too Late Either (Final 84th Oscar Predictions) (2/24/12)

Even though the theme of this blog is that it’s “Never Too Early” to start making Oscar predictions, I suppose that it’s also “Never Too Late.” In that spirit, I took one last look at my predictions to see if I wanted to change anything.

I decided that I only needed to make two changes. First, I am moving The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore back into the winners position. Regular readers of this blog know that I had been predicting it to win since July, but got scared of a Pixar rebellion earlier this month and placed La Luna into the lead instead. However, based on what I’m hearing from people who have seen all the shorts, I’m putting Flying Books back for my final predictions.

The other race that has kept me up at night is Lead Actor. Prior to the nominations, I had George Clooney first, Brad Pitt in second and Jean Dujardin in third. That, of course, was before Dujardin won both the SAG and the BAFTA.

I’ve decided to stick with Clooney for the win, on the theory that he has more pull in Hollywood, and there has to be a “surprise” somewhere during the night. I have moved Dujardin to second place though.

You can find more information about most of the races by clicking on the links for the various categories:

Final Predictions:

Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Michel Hazanaviciu for The Artist
Lead Actress: Viola Davis in The Help
Lead Actor: George Clooney in The Descendants
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer in The Help
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer in Beginners
Original Screenplay: Woody Allen for Midnight In Paris
Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash for The Descendants
Animated Feature: Gore Verbinski for Rango
Documentary Feature: Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel for Pina
Foreign Language: Asghar Farhadi for A Separation
Art Direction: Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo for Hugo
Costume Design: Sandy Powell for Hugo
Makeup: Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland for The Iron Lady
Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki for The Tree Of Life
Film Editing: Thelma Schoonmaker for Hugo
Visual Effects: Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett for Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes
Song: Bret McKenzie for “Man Or Muppet” from The Muppets
Score: Ludovic Bource for The Artist
Sound Editing: Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom for War Horse
Sound Mixing: Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson for War Horse
Animated Short: William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg for The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Documentary Short: Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen for The Tsunami And The Cherry Blossom
Live Action Short: Hallvar Witzo for Tuba Atlantic

Predictions Tally:

Three Wins: The Artist, Hugo

Two Wins: The Help, The Descendants, War Horse

One Win: Beginners, Midnight In Paris, Rango, A Separation, Pina, The Tree Of Life, The Iron Lady, The Muppets, Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes, Tuba Atlantic, The Tsunami And The Cherry Blosom, The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  


  1. Wow this is going to be the most predictable Oscar ever isn't it? Hello NBA All-Star game! :)

    1. I'm hoping that it stays predictable, otherwise I'll be wrong in a lot of categories!

  2. I agree with most of these, though I have a sinking feeling that The Help could eke out Best Picture somehow. I really hope that is not the case, though.

    1. I could see that, especially due to the strong acting skills in that movie. But I'm thinking that The Artist is just too strong at this point.

  3. "Lead Actor: George Clooney in The Descendants"


    I think Hugo will get 2-3 Oscars tops. Scorsese doesn't have much luck with the Academy and I think the movie will be easily beaten in Costume and Art Direction by The Artist or other films.

    1. I'd actually prefer Dujardin to win, or even Pitt, but I just have this bad feeling in my gut that Clooney could steal this somehow.

      My Hugo picks were tough ones for me. Film Editing could easily follow the Best Picture attention from The Artist, and costumes feel like almost anyone could win. But I went with Hugo thinking that it's got to win a few things, and these seemed like the most likely places to me.

    2. Yrah I'd prefer Pitt over Clooney too, he was amazing in Moneyball. I just hope people were led by their hearts not their connections during voting :)

    3. I hope so too. We'll find out in just a few hours!

  4. I think Meryl Streep will win. I can´t imagine that the Academy will give 2 acting awards for "The Help".

    1. Meryl's certainly still in the race, and it would be interesting if the year that most people are predicting someone else, and someone that she actually likes, would be the year she'd get her third. It does make you wonder what type of role she'd have to do in order to win, since Thatcher is a pretty baity part.

      But giving 2 acting awards to the help is EXACTLY the type of thing that I can see the Academy doing. And as Eric said above, there's still a remote possibility that it could come through on picture too, especially if it made some of the older members feel nostalgic.

  5. Ahah yeah never too late as I haven't posted mine yet. I don't want to see your selections yet as it may sway my picks. I'll come back later and see how our predictions compare :D

    1. Thanks Ruth. I almost waited until tomorrow to post this myself, but I decided that after following the races for so long, there really wasn't much of a chance that I'd change anything.

  6. The award given for a movie are reviewed from all aspect.

    Blair Witch Project

  7. Replies
    1. Oops. Fixed now. That is what happens when I try to blog even though I'm tired.

  8. I'm not feeling motivated enough about this batch of nominees to make any picks this year, but I will be rooting for Plummer, Pina, and A Separation.

  9. I can certainly understand that. Several of these feel like locks anyway, so we'll have to see if there are any surprises.

  10. Your Predictions are very similier to mine. I'll post them tomorrow. Meanwhile, here's my review for "The Artist":

    1. Thanks my friend. Checking out your review now.