EDITORS NOTE: These predictions were made in April 2011 and reflect what my thinking was at that time. I have updated my predictions since then, but leave these on the blog for a historical record. For the most updated list of predictions, go to the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog.
People claim that the Shorts categories are the most difficult to predict. Let’s see if I can prove them wrong!
I’ve found four hurdles to predicting the shorts. First, few people have seen them, so you can’t ask your friends which one they liked best. Second, these films typically stay under the headlines for the general public, and don’t have previews or commercial trailers to increase their buzz. Third, the Live Action Short and Animated Short categories have different eligibility dates (October 1-Sept 30 instead of Jan 1-Dec 31), which makes researching their eligible year through IMDB or other sources time consuming. (You have to search not only the release year, but also the month.) Finally, the special qualifying requirements (whether through a qualifying run in L.A., or through receiving a qualifying award at an Academy-approved competitive film festival or competition) and the special voting requirements and review committees confuse people.
In fairness, none of these should be insurmountable problems for Oscar predictors, even if you the films themselves are not yet available in your city. Research can help you to figure out which films are eligible in which years, and reviews from critics are available if you look hard enough. And while review committees and special screenings do limit the number of people who vote in these categories, an Oscar predictor should be able to compensate for this by weighing “The Buzz” that you get in other categories less heavily, while weighing reviews of content and quality more heavily.
So with that in mind, I did some research and am presenting an updated set of predictions for the 84th Oscar Live Action Short race (with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry).
1. Pioneer (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 7)
2. West Of The Moon (New)
3. Katrina’s Son (New)
4. Blokes (previous rank 1)
5. Yuri Lennon’s Landing On Alpha46 (previous rank 2)
Alternates:
6. Savage (previous rank 5)
7. Das Tub (New)
8. A Box Of Buttons (Una Caja De Botones) (New)
9. Carjack (New)
10. In The Absence Of Light, Darkness Prevails (New)
11. This Is A Revolver (Esto Es Un Revolver) (New)
12. Deeper Than Yesterday (New)
13. Until The River Runs Red (New)
14. Night Fishing (New)
15. The Illustrated City (New)
16. Temblay-en-France (New)
17. Incident By A Bank (Handelse Vid Bank) (New)
18. Scenes From The Suburbs (previous rank 6)
19. Happy Birthday Timmy (New)
20. This Is Alaska (New)
21. Chalk (New)
22. Jan Villa (New)
23. Inside Out (New)
24. Home Movie (New)
25. 3 Hours (New)
26. Bird (New)
27. Lost (New)
28. Brick Novax Part 1 & 2 (New)
29. Dik (New)
30. Donde Esta Kim Basinger (New)
31. The Armoire (New)
32. New Media (New)
33. The Road Home (New)
34. Generations (previous rank 3)
35. Salar (previous rank 4)
36. Brick Novax’s Diary (New)
37. AWOL (New)
38. Gone (Spain) (previous rank 8)
39. The Carrier (previous rank 10)
40. The Majestic Plastic Bag (New)
41. Den Sista Galaxonaut (New)
42. Sign Language (New)
43. South Central (New)
44. Condemned (New)
45. The Music Box (New)
46. Bedfellows (New)
47. Minong, I Slept (New)
48. Fight For Your Right Revisited (New)
49. Hard To Come By (New)
50. Sergeant Slaughter My Big Brother (New)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Live Action Short predictions for other years HERE.
If you’re really into shorts, check out the Animated Shorts and Documentary Shorts.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
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