84th Oscar Best Picture Updates (4/25/11)

EDITORS NOTE: These predictions were made in April 2011 and reflect what my thinking was at that time.  I have updated my predictions since then, but leave these on the blog for a historical record. For the most updated list of predictions, go to the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog.

I’ve updated the rankings for the 84th Best Picture race. One change that I will be incorporating into this and future predictions is that movies with release dates that are in question (like J. Edgar, Carnage and Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close) will be listed in the rankings for both years. Here are today’s rankings, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.

1. The Tree Of Life (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 2)
2. A Dangerous Method (previous rank 3)
3. The Ides Of March (previous rank 4)
4. J. Edgar (previous rank 5)
5. Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (previous rank 1)
6. Contagion (previous rank 7)
7. The Iron Lady (previous rank 6)
8. Like Crazy (previous rank 8)
9. War Horse (previous rank 18)
10. Hugo Cabret (previous rank10)

Alternates:
11. Midnight In Paris (previous rank 9)
12. The Skin That I Inhabit (previous rank 11)
13. Mooz-lum (previous rank 12)
14. The Descendants (previous rank 17)
15. Red Tails (previous rank 14)
16. Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previously rank 6 in 85th Oscar race)
17. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (previous rank 16)
18. On The Road (previous rank 13)
19. The Help (previous rank 15)
20. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (previous rank 19)
21. We Bought A Zoo (previous rank 21)
22. Carnage (previous rank 14 in 85th Oscar race)
23. My Week With Marilyn (previous rank 20)
24. Pariah (previous rank 25)
25. Young Adult (previous rank 30)
26. Moneyball (previous rank 33)
27. Super 8 (previous rank 34)
28. Martha Marcy May Marlene (previous rank 23)
29. The Adventures Of Tintin: The Secret Of The Unicorn (previous rank 22)
30. I Will Follow (previous rank 28)
31. Jane Eyre (previous rank 31)
32. Albert Nobbs (previous rank 24)
33. The Conspirator (previous rank 29)
34. We Need To Talk About Kevin (previous rank 35)
35. Win Win (previous rank 36)
36. Meek’s Cutoff (previous rank 37)
37. Melancholia (previous rank 42)
38. Rango (previous rank 27)
39. Water For Elephants (previous rank 26)
40. One Day (New)
41. The Rum Diary (previous rank 41)
42. Coriolanus (previous rank 43)
43. Beginners (previous rank 38)
44. Shame (previous rank 44)
45. Take Shelter (previous rank 40)
46. Rampart (New)
47. Black Gold (previous rank 32)
48. Untitled Bosnian War Love Story (previous rank 39)
49. Violet And Daisy (previous rank 45)
50. Oranges And Sunshine (previous rank 48)

Falling off the charts: Certified Copy, The Eye Of The Storm, Source Code, The Adjustment Bureau)


As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Best Picture predictions for other years HERE.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th