84th Oscar Original Screenplay Updates (4/23/11)

EDITORS NOTE: These predictions were made in April 2011 and reflect what my thinking was at that time.  I have updated my predictions since then, but leave these on the blog for a historical record. For the most updated list of predictions, go to the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog.

Updated rankings for the 84th Oscar Original Screenplay race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.

1. Abi Morgan and Michael Hurst for The Iron Lady (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1)
2. Dustin Lance Black for J. Edgar (prevous rank 2)
3. Scott Z. Burns for Contagion (previous rank 3)
4. Terrence Malick for The Tree Of Life (previous rank 5)
5. Drake Doremus and Ben York Jones for Like Crazy (previous rank 4)

Alternates:
6. Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris (previous rank 6)
7. Mike Millis for Beginners (previous rank 9)
8. Dee Rees for Pariah (previous rank 7)
9. Qasim Basir for Mooz-lum (previous rank 8)
10. Sean Durkin for Martha Marcy May Marlene (previous rank 11)
11. Will Reiser for Live With It (previous rank 10)
12. Jeff Nichols for Take Shelter (previous rank 12)
13. Diablo Cody for Young Adult (previous rank 17)
14. Lars von Trier for Melancholia (previous rank 18)
15. Jonathan Raymond for Meek’s Cutoff (previous rank 14)
16. Paddy Considine for Tyrannosaur (previous rank 13)
17. Abi Morgan and Steve McQueen for Shame (previous rank 16)
18. Dan Fogelman for Crazy Stupid Love (previous rank 15)
19. Tom Hanks and Nia Vardalos for Larry Crowne (previous rank 20
20. Julia Leigh for Sleeping Beauty (New)
21. Sarah Polley for Take This Waltz (New)
22. Thomas McCarthy and Joe Tiboni for Win Win (New)
23. Cheryl L. West for The Discarded Boys (previous rank 19)
24. JJ. Abrams for Super 8 (New)
25. Carolyn Briggs and Tim Metcalfe for Higher Ground (New)
26. Lem Dobbs for Haywire (New)
27. Larisa Kondracki and Ellis Kirwan for The Whistleblower (New)
28. James Ellroy and Oren Moverman for Rampart (New)
29. James Solomon for The Conspirator (New)
30. Jacob Aaron Estes for The Details (New)
31. Madonna and Alek Keshishian for W.E. (New)
32. Kyle Killen for The Beaver (New)
33. Geoffrey Fletcher for Violet And Daisy (New)
34. Victoria Mahoney for Yelling To The Sky (New)
35. John Orloff for Anonymous (New)
36. Ignacio Martinez de Pison and Fernando Trueba for Chico And Rita (New)
37. Abbas Kiarostami for Certified Copy (New)
38. Rona Munro for Oranges And Sunshine (New)
39. John Logan, Gore Verbinski and James Ward Byrkit for Rango (New)
40. Kevin Smith for Red State (New)
41. Michael Armruster and Shawn Ku for Beautiful Boy (New)
42. Miguel Barros for Blackthorn (New)
43. David Schisgall and Evgenia Peretz for This Must Be The Place (New)
44. Chang-dong Lee for Poetry (New)
45. Liza Johnson for Return (New)
46. David Wain and Ken Marino for Wanderlust (New)
47. Santiago Amigorena and Juan Diego Solanas for Upside Down (New)
48. Sergio G. Sanchez for The Impossible (New)
49. Skip Hollandsworth and Richard Linklater for Bernie (New)
50. Jason Lew for Restless (New)


As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Original Screenplay predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Adapted Screenplay predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th