EDITORS NOTE: These predictions were made in April 2011 and reflect what my thinking was at that time. I have updated my predictions since then, but leave these on the blog for a historical record. For the most updated list of predictions, go to the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog.
In researching the film festivals to predict the Shorts categories (see posts from earlier today), I discovered some Foreign Language Films to add to my list as well. Here is today’s attempt at predicting the 84th Oscar Foreign Language race (with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry).
1. The Skin That I Inhabit (La Piel Que Habito) (Spain) (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1)
2. Nader And Simin, A Separation (Iran) (previous rank 2)
3. Chicken With Plums (France) (previous rank 6)
4. The Turin Horse (Hungary) (previous rank 7)
5. Grey Matter (Matiere Grise) (Rwanda) (previous rank 13)
Alternates:
6. RPG Metanoia (Philippines) (previous rank 24)
7. Tales Of The Night (Les Contes De La Nuit) (France) (previous rank 12)
8. The Kid With A Bike (Le Gamin Au Velo) (aka Set Me Free) (France) (previous rank 11)
9. We Have A Pope (Habemus Papam) (Italy) (previous rank 37)
10. The Conquest (La Conquete) (France) (New)
11. Cairo Exit (El Korough) (Egypt) (previous rank 8)
12. Happy Happy (Sykt Lykkelig) (Norway) (previous rank 19)
13. The Good Life (Det Gode Liv) (Denmark) (previous rank 23)
14. Restoration (Boker Tov Adon Fidelman) (Israel) (previous rank 27)
15. She Monkeys (Apflickorna) (Sweden) (previous rank 30)
16. Little White Lies (Les Petits Mouchoirs) (France) (New)
17. Circumstance (Iran) (New)
18. Viva Riva! (Congo) (New)
19. Free Men (Les Hommes Libres) (France) (New)
20. Sponsoring (Germany) (New)
21. Cinema Komunisto (Serbia) (New)
22. White White World (Beli Beli Svet) (Serbia) (previous rank 10)
23. Intimate Grammar (Hadikduk HaPnimi) (Israel) (previous rank 15)
24. Romantics Anonymous (Les Emotifs Anonymes) (Belgium) (previous rank 33)
25. Turn Me On, Goddammit (Fa Meg Pa, For Faen) (Norway) (previous rank 24)
26. Marathon Boy (India or United Kingdom) (New)
27. Attenberg (Greece) (New)
28. Code Blue (Netherlands) (New)
29. Farewell, My Queen (Les Adieux A La Reine) (France) (New)
30. The Kite (Panang) (India) (New)
31. The Sleeping Beauty (France) (New)
32. Beyond (Svinalanorna) (Sweden) (previous rank 9)
33. The Piano In A Factory (Gang De Qin) (China) (previous rank 14)
34. Artificial Paradises (Paraisos Artificiales) (Mexico) (previous rank 17
35. Flowers Of Evil (Fleurs Du Mal) (France) (previous rank 19)
36. The Journals Of Musan (Musan Il-Gi) (South Korea) (previous rank 20)
37. El Veldaor (Mexico) (previous rank 21)
38. L’Ordre Et La Morale (France) (previous rank 22)
39. My Last Round (Mi Ultimo Round) (Chile or Argentina) (previous rank 35)
40. Our School (Scoala Noastra) (Romania) (previous rank 36)
41. Black Ocean (Noir Ocean) (Belgium) (New)
42. Heading West (Rich Ting West) (Netherlands) (New)
43. Service Entrance (Women On The 6th Floor) (Les Femmes De 6eme Etage) (France) (New)
44. Quartet (Japan) (New)
45. The Destiny Of Lesser Animals (Ghana) (New)
46. Kinyarwanda (France) (previous rank 38)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Foreign Language predictions for other years HERE.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
Attenberg (Greece),The Kid With A Bike,Sponsoring,Beyond,Happy Happy are my list
ReplyDeleteThat's a great list! Do you have a blog where you post your predictions too? And have any of these films started showing yet where you are?
ReplyDeleteI need to update my list again. This list is from April, which places it after Berlin but before Cannes, and since then we've got lists from the Karlovy Vary, Moscow and Shanghai festivals that I haven't even begun to look at in a serious way.
Thanks for checking out my blog!
I just read that Poland will be submitting "In Darkness" directed by Agnieszka Holland as their choice this year. I'll add this to my next round of predictions.
ReplyDeleteI know that Greece is submitting "Attenberg" directed by Athina Rachel Tsangari. Has anyone heard of any official or unofficial word on any other country's process?
Have you heard about "Footnote" from israel? this country got a few nomination in the last five years, and some pepole are saying that "Footnote" is one of the best films ever made in israel. search it on IMDB.
ReplyDeleteThanks! I've definitely been watching the Footnote reviews since it's screenplay win at Cannes. (Somehow, embarrassingly, I haven't updated these foreign language predictions since April...sigh...).
ReplyDeleteDo we know when the Ophir Awards are happening this year? My understanding is that the winner of that award is usually the academy entry, presuming that it meets the various other language and release date requirements.
Thanks for checking out my blog!
The 21st annual ophir awards are in september. some critics are syaing that it will be pointless to to the ceremony this year, because "Footnote" is so obvialy going to win...
ReplyDeleteAnother thing about this category - why isn't "The Artist" on your list? i mean, it is a french film...
By the way, you have a great blog! most people are focusing only on this years oscars, but predicting the nominees for 2018?! WOW.
I also have an oscar blog, but Unfortunately it is written in hebrew. maybe i will translate my next predictions to english so you caan read them...
Thanks for the kind words about my site! I knew that I could never compete with all of the wonderful sites that follow up to the minute Oscar news, but I thought that having a longer view might make for an interesting and unique way to go.
ReplyDeleteThis list was written in April and I unfortunately haven't had a chance to update it, partly because it requires a lot of special research. (Although I'm thinking of dedicating the weekend to this task, so hopefully I'll have an update soon.)
Since the list was made before Cannes, I didn't yet know that The Artist was going to be such a success. Although I still have some questions about whether France will submit it and/or if it will be considered eligible.
Please do send me the link to your Oscar blog. My computer has a feature where it translates automatically so that I can read regardless of what language it is written in. I've tried it on several other sites that were in French, Spanish, Italian, Bulgarian, German and Russian and was able to read them (not always perfectly, but good enough to understand what was going on), so let's try it on Hebrew and see how it does!
Well, my blog is not all about the oscar. i am following the race all the time, but because the blog is also about regular film reviews and music reviews, i' m uploading oscar predictions only ones a month... when i will write my next predictions (right before the beginning of Venice and Toronto festivals), i will write them in both Hebrew and English versions, so you can read them as well...
ReplyDeleteCool. I look forward to it!
ReplyDeleteI finally got around to updating these predictions. See the new ones at: http://nevertooearlymoviepredictions.blogspot.com/2011/08/84-oscar-foreign-language-updates-2011.html
ReplyDelete