OSCAR DAY!

It’s officially Oscar Day, and I’ll be using this page to update the winners as the ceremony progresses. And because I specialize in early predictions, I have also included my year in advance predictions of what will win for NEXT YEAR.

You can also follow me on twitter @NeverTooEarlyMP, where I will try to give some additional impressions throughout the night.

And just for fun, check out what I’ll be treated to for my Oscar Night Dinner Menu. Of course, we decided to include some LAMB in honor of my favorite movie blogging association, where you can find additional articles on all of the categories and nominees in their series, The LAMB Devours The Oscars, as well as our collective thoughts on who should have won in the LIONS For LAMBS Awards, and links to our LAMB Scores for every movie in 2011. And if you forgot to pick up music for your Oscar party, you can listen to all of the Oscar eligible songs submitted from this year’s films, including those that didn’t make the top five two.


My Track Record:  13/24. I'll do more statistics and analysis soon, as well as continue predictions for next year. For now, it looks like in my first year of making predictions I did better at picking the nominees (69.75%) than the winners (54.17%). Still, I won't give up, and look forward to sharing my thoughts with you as we move into next year. The Oscars are over. Long Live The Oscars!


Results:

Best Picture
1. The Artist (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER
2. Hugo
3. The Descendants
4. The Help
5. Moneyball
6. Midnight In Paris
7. War Horse
8. The Tree Of Life
9. Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close

My year in advance prediction for next year is:  Lincoln .

Best Director
1. Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER
2. Martin Scorsese for Hugo
3. Alexander Payne for The Descendants
4. Woody Allen for Midnight In Paris
5. Terrence Malick for The Tree Of Life

My year in advance prediction for next year is: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln.

Lead Actress
1. Viola Davis in The Help (Predicted Winner)
2. Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady--ACTUAL WINNER
3. Michelle Williams in My Week With Marilyn
4. Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
5. Rooney Mara for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

My year in advance prediction for next year is: Helen Hunt for The Surrogate.

Lead Actor
1. George Clooney for The Descendants (Predicted Winner)
2. Jean Dujardin for The Artist--ACTUAL WINNER
3. Brad Pitt for Moneyball
4. Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
5. Demian Bichir for A Better Life

My year in advance prediction for next year is: John Hawkes for The Surrogate.

Supporting Actress
1. Octavia Spencer for The Help (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER
2. Jessica Chastain for The Help
3. Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs
4. Berenice Bejo for The Artist
5. Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids

My year in advance prediction for next year is: Amy Adams for The Master.

Supporting Actor
1. Christopher Plummer in Beginners (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER
2. Kenneth Branagh in My Week With Marilyn
3. Nick Nolte for Warrior
4. Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close
5. Jonah Hill for Moneyball

My year in advance prediction for next year is: Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained.

Original Screenplay
1. Woody Allen for Midnight In Paris (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER
2. Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist
3. Asghar Farhadi for A Separation
4. J.C. Chandor for Margin Call
5. Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo for Bridesmaids

My year in advance prediction for next is: Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained.

Adapted Screenplay
1. Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash for The Descendants (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER
2. Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian for Moneyball
3. John Logan for Hugo
4. George Clooney and Grant Heslov for The Ides Of March
5. Bright O’Connor and Peter Straughaun for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

My year in advance prediction for next year is: David Magee for Life Of Pi (Update coming soon)

Animated Feature
1. Gore Verbinski for Rango (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER
2. Javier Mariscal and Fernando Trueba for Chico & Rita
4. Jean-Loup Felicioli and Alain Gagnol for A Cat In Paris (Une Vie De Chat)
4. Jennifer Yuh Nelson for Kung Fu Panda 2
5. Chris Miller for Puss In Boots

My year in advance prediction for next year is: Arrietty or Brave (Update coming soon)

Documentary Feature
1. Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel for Pina (Predicted Winner)
2. Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky for Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
3. Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner for Hell And Back Again
4. Daniel Lindsay, T.J. Martin and Rich Middlemas for Undefeated--ACTUAL WINNER
5. Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman for If A Tree Falls: A Story Of The Earth Liberation Front

My year in advance prediction for next year is: The Island President.

Foreign Language
1. Asghar Farhadi for A Separation (Jodaeiye Nader Az Simin) (Iran) (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER
2. Agnieszka Holland for In Darkness (W. Ciemnoscki) (Poland)
3. Philippe Falardeau for Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
4. Joseph Cedar for Footnote (Hearat Shulayim) (Israel)
5. Michael R. Roskam for Bullhead (Rundskop) (Belgium)

My year in advance prediction for next year is Portugal’s Tabu (Update coming soon)

Art Direction
1. Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo for Hugo (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER
2. Laurence Bennett and Robert Gould for The Artist
3. Stuart Craig and Stephanie McMillan for Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2
4. Rick Carter and Lee Sandales for War Horse
5. Anne Siebel and Helene Dubreuil for Midnight In Paris

My year in advance prediction for next year is: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.

Costume Design
1. Sandy Powell for Hugo (Predicted Winner)
2. Michael O’Connor for Jane Eyre
3. Mark Bridges for The Artist--ACTUAL WINNER
4. Arianna Phillips for W.E.
5. Lisy Christi for Anonymous

My year in advance prediction for next year is: Cloud Atlas.

Makeup
1. Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland for The Iron Lady (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER
2. Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin for Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2
3. Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle for Albert Nobbs

My year in advance prediction for next year is: The Hobbit.

Cinematography
1. Emmanuel Lubezki for The Tree Of Life (Predicted Winner)
4. Guillaume Schiffman for The Artist
3. Robert Richardson for Hugo--ACTUAL WINNER
2. Janusz Kaminski for War Horse
5. Jeff Cronenweth for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

My year in advance prediction for next year is: Life Of Pi.

Film Editing
1. Thelma Schoonmaker for Hugo (Predicted Winner)
2. Anne-Sophie Bion for The Artist
3. Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo--ACTUAL WINNER
4. Christopher Tellefsen for Moneyball
5. Kevin Trent for The Descendants

My year in advance prediction for next year is: Cloud Atlas.

Visual Effects
1. Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett for Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes (Predicted Winner)
2. Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson for Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2
3. Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossman and Alex Henning for Hugo--ACTUAL WINNER
4. Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew Butler and John Frazier for Transformers: Dark Of The Moon
5. Eric Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg for Real Steel

My year in advance prediction for next year is: The Hobbit.

Original Song
1. Bret McKenzie for “Man Or Muppet” from The Muppets (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER
2. Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown and Siedah Garrett for “Real In Rio” from Rio

My year in advance prediction for next year is: Brave or Les Miserables (Update coming soon)

Original Score
1. Ludovic Bource for The Artist (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER
2. John Williams for War Horse
3. Howard Shore for Hugo
4. Alberto Iglesias for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
5. John Williams for The Adventures Of Tintin: The Secret Of The Unicorn

My year in advance prediction for next year is: Ennio Morricone for Leningrad (Update coming soon)

Sound Editing
1 Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom for War Horse (Predicted Winner)
2. Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahi for Transformers: Dark Of The Moon
3. Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis for Drive
4. Phillip Stockton and Eugene Gearty for Hugo--ACTUAL WINNER
5. Ren Klyce for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

My year in advance prediction for next year is: The Dark Knight Rises.

Sound Mixing
1. Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson for War Horse (Predicted Winner)
2. Tom Fleischman and John Midgley for Hugo--ACTUAL WINNER
3. Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jaffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin for Transformers: Dark Of The Moon
4. Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco and Ed Movick for Moneyball
5. David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

My year in advance prediction for next year is: Prometheus.

Animated Short
1. William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg for The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore (Predicted Winner)--ACTUAL WINNER
2. Enrico Casarosa for La Luna
3. Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby for Wild Life
4. Patrick Doyon for Dimanche (Sunday)
5. Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe for A Morning Stroll

My year in advance prediction for next year is: Robots Of Brixton (Update coming soon)

Documentary Short
1. Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen for The Tsunami And The Cherry Blossom (Predicted Winner)
2. Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy for Saving Face--ACTUAL WINNER
3. James Spione for Incident In New Baghdad
4. Gail Dolgin and Robin Fryday for The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier Of The Civil Rights Movement
5. Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson for God Is The Bigger Elvis

My year in advance prediction for next year is: The Debutante Hunters (Updated coming soon)

Live Action Short
1. Hallvar Witzo for Tuba Atlantic (Predicted Winner)
2. Max Zahle and Stefan Gieren for Raju
3. Terry George and Oorlagh George for The Shore--ACTUAL WINNER
4. Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey for Time Freak
5. Peter McDonald and Eimear O’Kane for Pentecost

My year in advance prediction for next year is: Fishing Without Nets (Update coming soon)

85th Oscar Documentary Feature Updates (2012-2013 Awards Season) (2/25/12)

Those who aren’t familiar with this site may find it odd that I would choose to focus on NEXT year’s documentary features on Oscar-Eve. However, I have already finished my Final Predictions for the 84th Oscars, and by this time last year three of the eventual documentary nominees had already played at film festivals, with a fourth already having announced its festival debut, which means that by my standards I’m actually a little late to the party!

In addition to a fantastic crop of Sundance winners, my predictions also reflect the fact that Caesar Must Die took the Golden Bear at Berlin, winning against competition that included well-known dramatic directors. It’s not a guarantee (nothing is at this point), and I haven’t declared it my predicted winner, but it does give it enough momentum to make my top five.



1. Mahamed Nasheed for The Island President (Predicted Winner) (New)
2. Eugene Jarecki for The House I Live In (New)
3. Heidi Ewing and Rachel Grady for Detropia (New)
4. Paolo Taviani and Vittorio Taviani for Caesar Must Die (Cesare Deve Morire) (New)
5. Alvaro Longoria for Sons Of The Clouds (Oulad Lemzun) (previous rank 3)



Alternates:
6. Kirby Dick for The Invisible War (New)
7. Ra’anan Alexandrowicz and Liran Atzmor for The Law In These Parts (Chilton Ha Chok) (New)
8. Malik Bendjelloul for Searching For Sugar Man (New)
9. Alison Klayman for Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry (New)
10. Emad Burnt and Guy Davidi for 5 Broken Cameras (New)
11. Macky Alston for Love Free Of Die: How The Bishop Of New Hampshire Is Changing The World (New)
12. Laurent Cantet, Benicio Del Toro, Julia Medem, Gaspar Noe, Ellas Suleiman, Juan Carlos Tablo and Pablo Trapero for 7 Days In Havana (7 Dias En La Habana) (previous rank 1)
13. Barbara Holguin for We Of The Saya (Nosotros Los De La Saya) (previous rank 5)
14. Lise Birk Pedersen for Putin’s Kiss (New)
15. Lee Hirsch for The Bully Project (New)
16. Ki-Duk Kim for Arirang (New)
17. Marc Silver for Who Is Dayani Cristal? (previous rank 6)
18. Amy Berg for West Of Memphis (New)
19. David France for How To Survive A Plague (New)
20. Kristi Jacobson and Lori Silverbush for Finding North (previous rank 10)
21. Alexis Hanawalt for Country Mice And City Mice (previous rank 9)
22. Lauren Greenfield for The Queen Of Versailles (New)
23. Bart Layton for The Imposter (New)
24. Alastair Fothergill and Mark Linfield for Chimpanzee (previous rank 39)
25. David Gelb for Jiro Dreams Of Sushi (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 47)

26. Jeff Orlowski for Chasing Ice (New)
27. Wernr Herzog for Death Row (previous rank 4)
28. Chad Freidrichs for The Pruitt-Igoe Myth (New)
29. Daniel Dorobantu for Tau (previous rank 8)
30. Eugene Martin fr The Anderson Monarchs (previous rank 13)
31. Jens Pfeifer for No Ashes, No Phoenix (Phoenix In Der Asche) (New)
32. Mimi Edmunds for Angkor’s Children (previous rank 11)
33. Rosemary Rawcliffe for Women Of Tibet: The Buddha’s Wife (previous rank 14)
34. Avi Bohbot for The War After (previous rank 15)
35. Campbell Cooley for Batons and Baguettes (previous rank 16)
36. Junko Kajino and Ed Koziarski for Uncanny Terrain (previous rank 17)
37. Risteard O’Dombnail for The Pipe (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 20)
38 Kevin Macdonald for Marley (Ne)
39. Matthew Miele for Scatter My Ashes At Bergdorf’s (previous rank 18)
40. Grover Babckock and Blue Hadaegh for Scenes Of A Crime (New)
41. Mads Brugger for The Ambassador (New)
42. Lea Pool for Pink Ribbons, Inc. (New)
43. Mike Barber for The Past Denied: The Invisible History Of Slavery In Canada (previous rank 35)
44. Caskey Ebeling for Getting Up (New)
45. Walter Matteson for Pretty Old (New)
46. Victor Kossakovsky for Vivan Las Antipodas! (Long Live The Antipodes) (New)
47. Andrew Beck Grace for Eating Alabama (New)
48. Carlos Hernandez for Anything Else Than Air (De Puro Aire) (previous rank 12)
49. Ice-T and Andy Baybutt for Something For Nothing: The Art Of Rap (New)
50. Byron Hunt for Soul Food Junkies (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 19)


As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!   
See Documentary feature predictions for other years HERE.
If you’re really into documentaries, check out the Documentary Shorts also.
See predictions for other categories at the 85th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  

It’s Never Too Late Either (Final 84th Oscar Predictions) (2/24/12)

Even though the theme of this blog is that it’s “Never Too Early” to start making Oscar predictions, I suppose that it’s also “Never Too Late.” In that spirit, I took one last look at my predictions to see if I wanted to change anything.

I decided that I only needed to make two changes. First, I am moving The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore back into the winners position. Regular readers of this blog know that I had been predicting it to win since July, but got scared of a Pixar rebellion earlier this month and placed La Luna into the lead instead. However, based on what I’m hearing from people who have seen all the shorts, I’m putting Flying Books back for my final predictions.

The other race that has kept me up at night is Lead Actor. Prior to the nominations, I had George Clooney first, Brad Pitt in second and Jean Dujardin in third. That, of course, was before Dujardin won both the SAG and the BAFTA.

I’ve decided to stick with Clooney for the win, on the theory that he has more pull in Hollywood, and there has to be a “surprise” somewhere during the night. I have moved Dujardin to second place though.

You can find more information about most of the races by clicking on the links for the various categories:

Final Predictions:

Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Michel Hazanaviciu for The Artist
Lead Actress: Viola Davis in The Help
Lead Actor: George Clooney in The Descendants
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer in The Help
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer in Beginners
Original Screenplay: Woody Allen for Midnight In Paris
Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash for The Descendants
Animated Feature: Gore Verbinski for Rango
Documentary Feature: Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel for Pina
Foreign Language: Asghar Farhadi for A Separation
Art Direction: Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo for Hugo
Costume Design: Sandy Powell for Hugo
Makeup: Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland for The Iron Lady
Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki for The Tree Of Life
Film Editing: Thelma Schoonmaker for Hugo
Visual Effects: Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett for Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes
Song: Bret McKenzie for “Man Or Muppet” from The Muppets
Score: Ludovic Bource for The Artist
Sound Editing: Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom for War Horse
Sound Mixing: Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson for War Horse
Animated Short: William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg for The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Documentary Short: Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen for The Tsunami And The Cherry Blossom
Live Action Short: Hallvar Witzo for Tuba Atlantic


Predictions Tally:

Three Wins: The Artist, Hugo

Two Wins: The Help, The Descendants, War Horse

One Win: Beginners, Midnight In Paris, Rango, A Separation, Pina, The Tree Of Life, The Iron Lady, The Muppets, Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes, Tuba Atlantic, The Tsunami And The Cherry Blosom, The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore


As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th