This year I correctly predicted 19 out of the 24 winners for the Oscars.
Here’s a little bit about the five categories I got wrong, and what lessons I’ll be taking into next year:
Lead Actress: Jennifer Lawrence. I had went with Emmanuelle Riva’s amazing performance in Amour, but noted that I was probably underestimating Harvey Weinstein’s campaigning skills. I was right about the second half.
Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz. I had predicted Tommy Lee Jones, but knew that Waltz had won the BAFTA and was gaining momentum. Notice that Django Unchained was also one of Harvey Weinstein’s films, so I really should have no excuse.
Production Design: Lincoln. I had gone with Anna Karenina, but it makes complete sense that Lincoln needed to win something other than the acting award, and this fits the bill just fine.
Sound Editing: Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty tied. And I was wrong on both counts, having thought that Life Of Pi would continue its tech category sweep here. On the plus side, I am now more convinced than ever that a significant number of the voters do indeed know the difference between sound editing and sound mixing, and my prior writing on the types of films that each category rewards has been confirmed again!
Documentary Short: Inocente. I had predicted Open Heart as the documentary that had the deepest political roots, but in my review of all five documentary shorts I noted that Inocente was the feel-good movie of the nominees, and also focused on an artist, so I’m quite pleased with its win in this category.
So, how did you do? Did you get more than me? Any theories that you take away from the year, or things you’ve learned that you’d like to share? Let me know in the comments.
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Good job. I predicted 20. Just missed Director (went for Spielberg), Production Design, Documentary short and Sound Editing.
ReplyDeleteI just had a feeling about Ang Lee, and am glad I went with my gut there. Interesting that we missed exactly the same tech categories!
DeleteI hardly made decision in favor of Steven. Though I thought of Ang Lee too.
DeleteYep, looks like we've a lot in common :))
I didn't make any predictions this year, but it's good to see you did better than last year.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I'm not sure what happened with me last year. I think one of the biggest things was that I need to remember that there are really two stages: Noms & Wins, and pay more attention to what happens in the last 2 weeks of the campaign like I did this year.
DeleteI got 20 this year and we both missed Doc Short, Production Design and Sound Editing, predicting the same nominees.
ReplyDeleteI was very confident about Lawrence as Riva felt more like wishful thinking to me. I would have had more faith in Riva if she got that SAG nod.
Christoph Waltz had the momentum and was the only one who able to give speeches this awards season, so it made sense to me.
I took a huge gamble on Lincoln for Adapted Screenplay even though I knew that Argo had it locked.
I thought Riva didn't qualify for the SAG nomination. Neither did Wallis.
DeleteAh! Seems like there's a trend in those categories.
DeleteWaltz did make sense and definitely had the momentum, but I just wasn't sure how much they'd want to reward Django over Lincoln.
Quite right about unclear qualifications for SAG for both Riva & Wallis, which is why I thought she might be a surprise there. I also imagined that more Academy voters would have seen Amour than SAG members who got around to it, especially after it got so many nominations.
DeleteI think there was a bit of wishful thinking for me there too, but I'm still glad I didn't go with the safe pick, because if I had & Riva had won then I'd really be kicking myself! Hahaha.
I got a lot of them except for Sound Editing, Documentary Short, and Animated Feature.
ReplyDeleteSo... Any update on your list?
Good calls on those. I kind of figured that a lot of people were underestimating Brave.
DeleteIt will be a while before I get up new predictions this year. I may not even be able to manage them until May or closer to Cannes.
I only predicted 8 categories: picture, director, the 4 acting and 2 screenplay categories. I got 6 right and for the 2 I didn't predict correctly, the winners were those I had hoped would win (Lee and Waltz, I predicted Spielberg and Jones). So overall I was very happy!!
ReplyDeleteAlso for the best actress category, although I thought Riva's performance was easily the "best" among the 5, my heart ended up (unconditionally) going for Lawrence... I guess many academy voters were just like me and couldn't wait to embrace the young talent of the new generation....
Only 19 correct? You are slipping ;-)
ReplyDelete