I think this race comes down to Skyfall and Les Miserables. Will they go with the artist that is hot right now for the win? Or will they want to honor the people who composed Les Miserables, even if the song they are rewarding isn’t the most famous? I find myself going back and forth between these two nearly every day, but for now I’ll bet on Adele for the win.
1. Skyfall from Skyfall (Predicted Winner) 2. Suddenly from Les Miserables 3. Learn Me Right from Brave 4. Ancora Qui from Django Unchained 5. Pi’s Lullaby from Life Of Pi
Alternates: 6. Everybody Needs A Friend from Ted 7. Still Alive from Paul Williams Is Still Alive 8. From Here To The Moon And Back from Joyful Noise 9. Freedom from Django Unchained 10. Song Of The Lonely Mountain from The Hobbit 11. Touch The Sky from Brave 12. Breath Of Life from Snow White And The Huntsman 13. Strange Love from Frankenweenie 14. Who Did That To You from Django Unchained 15. When Can I See You Again from Wreck-It Ralph 16. Snake Eyes from Promised Land 17. For You from Act Of Valor 18. This Gift from The Odd Life Of Timothy Green 19. Cosmonaut from Lawless 20. Still Dream from Rise Of The Guardians 21. Abraham’s Daughter from The Hunger Games 22. Dull Tool from This Is Forty 23. Before My Time from Chasing Ice 24. Ladies Of Tampa from Magic Mike 25. Love Always Comes As A Surprise from Madagascar 3 26. Wide Awake from Katy Perry: Part Of Me 27. Not Running from Stand Up Guys 28. One Wing from Sparkle 29. Anything Made Of Paper from West Of Memphis 30. Let It Rain from Being Flynn
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Original Song predictions for other yearsHERE. If you love music, you might also want to check out theOriginal Score predictions. See predictions for other categories at the 85th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th .
While I had correctly predicted 28 of the 39 songs that made the submission list, I got 0 out of 2 (0%) of the actual nominees. It’s possible that I would have scored better if this were a full category of 5 nominees. It is also possible that I completely misunderstand what the song writers are looking for when they vote, although my suspicion is that I simply underestimated their ability (and apparent desire) to use the ranked average voting system to vote against any song or artist that they don’t like.
I’m thinking that the critical love for The Muppets, along with the existential crisis at the heart of the masculine psychology, will put Bret McKenzie into the winner’s circle, but perhaps the Latino block can come through for Rio the way that the British block has done in the past?
Note that both of the eventual nominees came from within the film itself, rather than the end credits. The links below show the songs in their full context, and therefore contain SPOILERS.
1. Bret McKenzie for “Man Or Muppet” from The Muppets (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 11) 2. Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown and Siedah Garrett for “Real In Rio” from Rio (previous rank 20)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! To see how I am doing in each race, check out myTrack Record Page. See Original Song predictions for all yearsHERE. If you love music, you might also want to check out theOriginal Score predictions. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
The music branch announced the long list of 39 contenders for best original song a few weeks ago, and if I have been slow to report on it, you can blame it on the Backson. Of these 39 songs, 28 of them (72%) had been included in my previous predictions. You can see how I am doing in the other categories on my Track Record Page.
When the music branch goes to rank these songs, they get to watch a short excerpt of the movie where the song is featured. This means that songs that are shown as part of the film itself often have a better chance than songs which merely play over the credits, as it gives the members something to look at as well as listen to. However, at least two of the songs this year may suggest a path that will be used more often in the future. In The Help, the end credits play over an extended image of Aibileen walking into the distance, perhaps making it more likely that viewers stayed to listen to The Living Proof. Meanwhile, Winnie The Pooh has incorporates animation into its credits during So Long. If either of these songs receive a nomination, other films may try to emulate these strategies in the hopes of entertaining the branch voters (to say nothing of audiences).
Due to special rules in this category, there may be anywhere from two to five nominees, determined by the average score that the music branch gives each song. Unfortunately, the average score also means that composers have the ability to gang up against a particular song that they don’t like, and there is speculation that in years with less than five nominees, this may be the cause.
Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Best Song race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry. The Muppets won at the Critics Choice awards, but weren’t even nominated for the Golden Globes, opening a path for Mary J. Blige to regain the lead.
As a special treat I have included links so that you can listen to all the songs, but note that some of the videos below include actual scenes from the films, and therefore SPOILERS.
1. Mary J. Blige, Harvey Mason Jr. and Thomas Newman for “The Living Proof” from The Help (previous rank 1) 2. Bret McKenzie for “Life’s A Happy Song” from the Muppets (Opening scene, Finale Song) (previous rank 21) 3. Glenn Close and Brian Byrne for “Lay Your Head Down” from Albert Nobbs (previous rank 3) 4. Alan Menken and David Zippel for “Star Spangled Man” from Captain America: The First Avenger (previous rank 2) 5. Jeannie Lurie, Aris Archontis and Chen Neeman for “Pictures In My Head” from The Muppets (previous rank 7)
Alternates: 6. Elton John and Bernie Taupin for “Hello, Hello” from Gnomeo And Juliet (previous rank 10) 7. Zooey Deschanel for “So Long” from Winnie The Pooh (previous rank 4) 8. Chris Cornell for “The Keeper” from Machine Gun Preacher (previous rank 14) 9. Howard Shore, Elizabeth Cotnoir and Isabelle Geffroy for “Coeur Volant” from Hugo (previously ranked 46) 10. Josiah Dean and Ryan Tedder for “The World I Knew” from African Cats (previous rank 8) 11. Bret McKenzie for “Man Or Muppet” from The Muppets (previous rank 38) 12. Jaymay for “Never Be Daunted” from HappyThankYouMorePlease (New) 13. Matt Berninger (The National) for “Think You Can Wait” from Win Win (Previous rank 15) 14. Alecia Moore (Pink) and Billy Mann for “Bridge Of Light” from Happy Feet 2 (previous rank 11) 15. Jon Thor Birgisson (Jonsi) for “Gathering Stories” from We Bought A Zoo (previous rank 17) 16. Ben Leaver for “Imaginary Friends” from Olive (New) 17. Ouseppachan and Sohan Roy for “Dakkanaga Dugu Dugu” from DAM999 (New) 18. J. Ralph for “Hell And Back” from Hell And Back Again (previous rank 9) 19. Daniel Tashian and Mindy Smith for “Taking You With Me” from Our Idiot Brother (New) 20. Sergio Mendes, John Powell, Carlinhos Brown, Mikael Mutti and Siedah Garrett for “Real In Rio” from Rio (previous rank 31) 21. OK Go for “The Greatest Song I Ever Heard” from POM Wonderful Presents The Greatest Movie Ever Sold (previous rank 31) 22. Alex Heffes for “Keep On Walking” from The First Grader (Listen to excerpts from the Score or watch the Trailer) (New) 23. Kristen Anderson Lopez and Robert Lopez for “The Backson Song” from Winnie The Pooh (previous rank 26) 24. Brad Paisley and Robbie Williams for “Collision of Worlds” from Cars 2 (previous rank 12) 25. The Shillaly Brothers for “Pop” from White Irish Drinkers (New) 26. Ben Nichols for “Shelter” from Take Shelter (previous rank 23) 27. Elton John and Bernie Taupin for “Love Builds A Garden” from Gnomeo And Juliet (previous rank 22) 28. Gabriel Yared for “When The Heart Dies” from In The Land Of Blood And Honey (Watch the Trailer listen at the Website or download the song on iTunes) (previous rank 47) 29. Melissa Manchester and Mary Steenburgen for “Rainbird” from Dirty Girl (New) 30. Elvis Costello for “Sparkling Day” from One Day (previous rank 32) 31. Zac Brown, Wyatt Durrette, Drew Pearson and Anne Preven for “Where The River Goes” from Footloose (previous rank 16) 32. Ouseppachian and Sohan Roy for “Mujhe Chod Ke” from DAM999 (New) 33. Camane for “Ja Nao Estar” from Jose And Pilar (New) 34. Ester Dean, Carlinhos Brown and Mikael Mutti for “Let Me Take You To Rio” from Rio (previous rank 27) 35. Kraig Jarret Johnson for “Summer Song” from The Music Never Stopped (previous rank 34) 36. Ouseppachan and Sohan Roy for “DAM999 Theme Song” from DAM999 (New) 37. William James Adams (will.i.am) for “Hot Wings” from Rio (previous rank 39) 38. John Powell for “The Mighty Sven” from Happy Feet 2 (New, film previously ranked 11) 39. Holly Palmer for “It’s How We Play” from I Don’t Know How She Does It (skip to 4:30 on video for excerpt) (New)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Original Song predictions for other yearsHERE. If you love music, you might also want to check out theOriginal Score predictions. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
What I Saw: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part One
I must begin my review with three admissions: First, seeing a Twilight movie has become something of a Thanksgiving tradition for me, and I’m always struck by the colonial implications of the pale white bloodsuckers encroaching upon Quileute land. Second, I am an unapologetic member of Team Jacob, and since statistically fifty percent of marriages end in divorce, I think that Bella would have been smarter to marry the hottie with the great abs first, and save the guy who doesn’t age for her second time around. And third, I love watching the guys get all upset as the women break their monopoly on this genre.
Let’s be honest: The makeup and visual effects in this film aren’t really any worse than we see in any number of male-centered vampire and werewolf films. The dialogue isn’t any more ridiculous than what we see in a typical action movie. And even Taylor Lautner’s much ballyhooed shirtlessness can’t begin to compare to the skimpy outfits and topless nudity we’ve seen on women over the years. So why is it so threatening to have one franchise where testosterone isn’t the solution to every problem?
I’m not going to try to argue that the Twilight series is somehow a paragon of feminism. My point is simply that the film looks at issues of romance, marriage, pregnancy and abortion as common experiences and trusts its audience to fill in the gaps with their own emotions and projections, just as the guys’ films do for the oh-so-important values of sports, cars and war. Indeed, this context even extends to the battle scenes, where the struggles are for protection, rather than the ego-driven masculine fantasy of saving the whole world.
Breaking Dawn Part One lives up to expectations. I have to admire a franchise where the marriage comes in the middle, rather than the end of the series. In addition to providing an opportunity for cameo appearances from the lesser known characters in Bella’s life, the wedding scene features beautiful dresses and an art design sequence that perfectly mirrors the mix of emotions. The exotic honeymoon plays nicely as well, revealing the nervousness and anticipation of one’s first time that contrasts quite sharply with the immature conquest mentality presented in boy’s movies. But the heart of the film is during the pregnancy, as Bella, Edward, Jacob and their families negotiate the changing loyalties and affections that come with new life. And while the division of the final installment into two parts is clearly a money grab (just as it is for Harry Potter, The Hobbit, The Matrix and any number of superhero sequels), the execution of the final scene makes it feel like a natural break in the story by harkening back to the horror genre that inspired the characters and building suspense for the final episode.
Oscar Chances:
Best Song: Bruno Mars for “It Will Rain” (currently ranked 20) Best Song: Christina Perri for “A Thousand Years” (currently unranked, but at the suggestion of a reader it may appear in my next rankings) Makeup (currently ranked 33 for the multiple transformations of Bella Swan)
My Lamb Score: 3 out of 5 Lambs What is a lamb score? ClickHERE to learn more. Read more of my reviewsHERE. As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
I admit it. Harold & Kumar was one of my most anticipated films of the year. It may seem strange that someone who runs an Oscar prediction blog would also have a taste for White Castle cheeseburgers, but what can I say, I’m a complex person. I fell in love with this franchise during the first movie, and have been a loyal follower ever since. I even saw it in 3D!
So for my review today, I thought it might be fun to apply Oscar logic to a film that few actually believe will appear at the Kodak theater. Please note that with the exception of the final category (best song), these don’t show up in my actual predictions.
The Lord Of The Rings Argument. We’ve heard all season long that Harry Potter will attempt an Oscar run for the final installment of the franchise, so why can’t Harold & Kumar do the same? It’s a classic hero tale of comrades setting out on a journey (to White Castle). Along the way they meet exotic creatures (cheetahs, unicorns, flying reindeer), make new friends (NPH), undergo imprisonment (Guantanamo Bay), celebrate with royalty (George W. Bush), and are helped by magical beings (Santa Claus). The final installment even goes out of its way to point back to classic moments from earlier in the series (Kumar’s medical knowledge, particular types of sandwiches, and an actual return to the famed White Castle!) And unlike that greedy Peter Jackson, they are unlikely to go back and make a two-part prequel after their win (The Hobbit).
The J. Edgar Argument. Oscar loves it when a straight actor plays a gay character, so why can’t the reverse be true? An openly out and proud Neil Patrick Harris not only plays a straight character, but a straight version of himself! It’s a fresh take on the epistemology of the closet, and the ultimate actor’s challenge to not only imagine another lifestyle, but to reenact the painful social constructions that define hetero-masculinity. And then, in a surprise turn, (SPOILER ALERT): he is a gay actor pretending to be a straight actor who pretends to be a gay actor. (END OF SPOILER.) Eat your heart out Leonardo DiCaprio.
The George Clooney Argument. Sure, Oscar respects Clooney for his political films like Good Night And Good Luck, Syriana and The Ides Of March, but Kal Penn not only worked in the White House for President Obama, he also got high with George W. Bush. What better bridge-builder to bring compromise and common sense to our tumultuous political times?
Ending The White Out. With Billy Crystal replacing Eddie Murphy as Oscar host, the Academy needs to do some additional work to bring racial parity to the show. Sure, Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer are locks, but what about the men? This film boasts two actors of color, representing both Indian and Korean descent. And true fans of the series know that it actually does quite a lot to break down racial stereotypes. If they’re concerned about vote splitting, Warner Bros. could even do some category fraud and campaign one of them as supporting. But they better push Cho for the lead, since Harold is the first name in the title.
Nudity. Move over Kate Winslet, these guys are packin! Steve McQueen and Michael Fassbender may have garnered that NC-17 rating, but Cho and Penn embody the heights of male vulnerability by revealing themselves in their claymated and frozen states.
Best Ensemble. In addition to Cho, Penn, Harris and the fantastic Danny Trejo, the final installment scored appearances from Santa Claus, Jesus Christ and the Wafflebot! I even heard a rumor that Santa did all his own stunts.
The Release Date. November is clearly in the Oscar corridor, and the Christmas theme allows theaters to keep showing the film through the December rush.
Visual Effects And Animation. Yes, if you are going to see this film, it is worth the extra price for the 3D. Unlike those other movies that use 3D as a gimmick to steal your money, Harold & Kumar utilize it as a knowing reflection on today’s cinematic times. Hollywood has been blowing smoke in our face and throwing rotten eggs at us for years. Why not reward the film that embraces that tradition? They even include some claymation in honor of the Christmas tradition.
Universal Life Lessons. Harold learns to relax and enjoy life. Kumar learns to take responsibility. They both learn the true meaning of friendship. As if this isn’t enough, they take it a step further and reveal that the true meaning of Christmas isn’t about trees or ornaments, but rather (SPOLIER ALERT) about finally telling off your father in law (END OF SPOILER).
Actual Oscar Chances:
One serious Oscar possibility, since the film is a musical, comes in the best song category, where I currently have it ranked number 13 in my predictions. Before you laugh, remember that South Park was nominated in this category for “Blame Canada,” so we know that the music branch can have a sense of humor when given the chance.
I’m thinking that the song with the best chances is Gregtronic’s “It’s A Very Jolly Day (For You To Die),” which plays during the claymation portions of the film. It has a catchy upbeat tempo that harkens back to the Christmas songs of old.
You can listen to the song HERE. Sensitive readers should be warned that there is some crass language. (Although to be fair, sensitive readers probably should have stopped reading this post a long time ago.)
My Lamb Score: 2 out of 5 Lambs What is a lamb score? ClickHERE to learn more. Read more of my reviewsHERE. As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Original Song race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.
This is often a particularly difficult category to predict, partly because so few news stories are written about this race, and partly because some songs get added to the credits after the film has been finished. Additionally, the music branch has a special rule where the composer or songwriter has to submit the work themselves, instead of having them be considered when the film as a whole is submitted. (I trust you have all heard the news about Hans Zimmer by now.)
For today’s predictions, I have included the writer and name of the songs where I could find it, but settled for the performer or score composer when my research didn’t yield that information. I also went out on a limb for a few films (Joyful Noise, My Last Day Without You) that could conceivably receive limited qualifying runs that would make them eligible in this category, the same way that Country Strong did last year.
As always, please let me know in the comments if you think I’ve missed anything!
1. Mary J. Blige, Harvey Mason Jr. and Thomas Newman for “The Living Proof” from The Help (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1) 2. Alan Menken and David Zippel for “Star Spangled Man” from Captain America: The First Avenger (previous rank 40) 3. Glenn Close and Brian Byrne for “Lay Your Head Down” from Albert Nobbs (New) 4. Zooey Deschanel for “So Long” from Winnie The Pooh (previous rank 4) 5. Queen Latifah, Dolly Parton and Mervyn Warren for Joyful Noise (previous rank 2)
Alternates: 6. Bebo Valdes for Chico & Rita (previous rank 17) 7. Jeannie Lurie, Aris Archontis and Chen Neeman for “Pictures In My Head” from The Muppets (previous rank 3) 8. Josiah Dean and Ryan Tedder for “The World I Knew” from African Cats (previous rank 5) 9. J. Ralph for “Hell And Back” from Hell And Back Again (previous rank 7) 10. Elton John and Bernie Taupin for “Hello, Hello” from Gnomeo & Juliet (previous rank 45) 11. Alecia Moore (Pink) and Billy Mann for “Bridge Of Light” from Happy Feet 2 (previous rank 11) 12. Brad Paisley and Robbie Williams for “Collision Of Worlds” from Cars 2 (previous rank 13) 13. Gregtronic for "A Very Jolly Day (For You To Die)" from A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas (New) 14. Chris Cornell for “The Keeper” from Machine Gun Preacher (New) 15. Matt Berninger for “Think You Can Wait” from Win Win (New) 16. Zac Brown for “Where The River Goes” from Footloose (New) 17. Jonsi Birgisson for “Gathering Stories” from We Bought A Zoo (previous rank 33) 18. Mumford And Sons for “Enemy” from Wuthering Heights (previous rank 48) 19. Ludacris, Busta Rhymes and Dan Omar for Fast Five (previous rank 19) 20. Bruno Mars for “It Will Rain” from The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 (previous rank 35) 21. Bret McKenzie for “Life’s A Happy Song” from The Muppets (previous rank 3) 22. Elton John and Bernie Taupin for “Love Builds A Garden” from Gnomeo & Juliet (previous rank 45) 23. Ben Nichols for “Shelter” from Take Shelter (New) 24. John Williams for War Horse (previous rank 12) 25. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (previous rank 15)
26. Kristen Anderson Lopez and Robert Lopez for “The Backson Song” from Winnie The Pooh (previous rank 4) 27. Ester Dean, Carlinhos Brown and Mikael Mutti for “Let Me Take You To Rio (Blu’s Arrival)” from Rio (previous rank 14) 28. Kerris Dorsey for “The Show” from Moneyball (previously ranked 44) 29. Alexandre Desplat for Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (New) 30. Henry Jackman for Puss In Boots (New) 31. OK Go for “The Greatest Song I Ever Heard” from POM Wonderful Presents The Greatest Movie Ever Sold (New) 32. Elvis Costello for “Sparkling Day” from One Day (previous rank 37) 33. Nicole Beharie for My Last Day Without You (previous rank 8) 34. Paul Cantelon for ”Summer Song” from The Music Never Stopped (previous rank 24) 35. Benabar (Bruno Nicolini) for “Mon Caeur Fait Vroom (My Heart Goes Vroom)” from Cars 2 (previous rank 13) 36. Linkin Park for “Iridescent” from Transformers: Dark Of The Moon (previous rank 30) 37. Foo Fighter for “Walk” from Thor (previously ranked 45) 38. Bret McKenzie for “Man Or Muppet” from The Muppets (previous rank 3) 39. William James Adams (will.i.am) for “Hot Wings (I Wanna Party)” from Rio (previous rank 14) 40. John Williams for The Adventures Of Tintin: Secret Of The Unicorn (previous rank 6) 41. Sergio Mendes, John Powell, Carlinhos Brown, Mikael Mutti and Siedah Garrett for “Real In Rio” from Rio (previous rank 14) 42. Big & Rich for “Fake I.D.” from Footloose (New) 43. Take That for “When We Were Young” from The Three Musketeers (New) 44. This Will Destroy You for “The Mighty Rio Grande” from Moneyball (previously reanked 44) 45. Young Adult (New) 46. Clint Mansell and Thomas Newman for The Iron Lady (New) 47. Gabriel Yared for In The Land Of Blood And Honey (New) 48. Kasabian for “Turkish Acid Bath” from Killer Elite (New) 49. Take That for “Love Love” from X-Men: First Class (New) 50. Casting Crowns for “Courageous” from Courageous (New) As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Original Song predictions for other yearsHERE. If you love music, you might also want to check out theOriginal Score predictions. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
