Saturday, July 16, 2011

Open Thread: Is A Billion Dollars What It Used To Be?

I've been thinking about this question for a while after seeing it reported on various other blogs, and I haven't come up with an answer, so I thought it might make for a fun Open Thread to put this out for reader suggestions.

I've been trying to think more about statistics and historical trends as I do my predictions, and while some of us might wish that artistry alone was the main factor in the Oscar race, movies are also about business, and that means money.  According to Box Office Mojo, all of the top ten worldwide grossing films have been nominated in at least one category, and all of the films that have reached one billion in worldwide gross have won at least one Oscar.

Which brings us to the newest addition to that club: Pirates Of The Caribbean: On Stranger Tides. It currently clocks in at number 7 on the all time list, with $1,023,860,479 and rising (since it is still in theaters).  I have it on the long lists for most of the technical categories, and yet, try as I might, I haven't been able to bring myself to put it into any of my nomination lists, much less give it a win.

As a disclaimer, I haven't actually seen the movie (and given it's box office numbers, I must be the only one!).  This is mostly because it got poor critic reviews in terms of story, and since I had missed several of the other films in the franchise I just didn't bother.

But since many of my readers have probably seen it, I put the question to you: Which category will it be nominated in?  Which category will it win in? Or will this be the movie that breaks the statistics and tells us that a billion dollars simply isn't what it used to be?

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8 comments:

  1. AnonymousJuly 16, 2011 at 1:01 PM

    In my opinion, it is definitely breaking the statistics... One movie that isn't though, is Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2. Wow! What an excellent movie! Give it a Return of the King type Oscar finish.

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  2. NeverTooEarlyMPJuly 16, 2011 at 2:06 PM

    I completely agree that Harry Potter will make it into that list as well, but since I've already got it listed as a nominee in several categories I figured that I was in line with the statistics. (Although based on the great reviews I may need to rethink my specific rankings after I've seen it.)

    It's good to know that I'm not the only one wondering whether Pirates will break that statistic.

    Thanks for reading my blog!

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  3. lime_vortepJuly 16, 2011 at 3:35 PM

    POTC 4 might get a nomination for makeup. That's about it. It's still in my list.

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  4. NeverTooEarlyMPJuly 16, 2011 at 5:51 PM

    Thanks lime_vortep. Makeup may indeed be a possibility. Especially since I don't really have a good idea of what that branch looks for. But it is also one of the toughest nominations to get since there are only 3 nominees.

    To the extent that I have been able to see a pattern, it seems that they like to give one nomination to "human" makeup (aging, etc), one to the the Sci-Fi/Fantasy monster feature, and then the third one varies.

    Interestingly, I just checked the list again, and even if Pirates gets nominated in one category, it would still be the only one in the top ten not to get MULTIPLE nominations. But since they're rolling in money, they may not even care.

    Thanks again for being such a loyal reader!

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  5. lime_vortepJuly 17, 2011 at 2:42 PM

    Mary mother of god! Harry Potter was a PHENOMENAL movie. This was the a movie that, when it ends you instantly think about Oscar.

    After seeing the movie, he's 8.7 IMDB rating and the amazing 97% Rottentomatoes rating. I'm calling it:

    Nominations:

    The HUGE possibilities:

    Best Picture
    Best Cinematography
    Best Film Editing
    Best Sound Editing
    Best Sound Mixing
    Best Visual Effects
    Best Art Direction

    The possibilities that will be extra hart to get, but no impossible:

    Best Directing
    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Best Original Score
    Best Makeup

    The impossible, and yet still:

    Supporting Actor: Alan Rickman.

    Unless the Academy really don't like Potter, the movie will get at least 6-8 nominations.

    Did you see it?

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  6. KentJuly 17, 2011 at 3:27 PM

    @lime_vortep Mary mother of God is right!! Haha. I agree with your list, except I believe Best Original Score belongs in the HUGE possibilities category. And I think that if Alan Rickman had a little more screen time he would've deserved a Supporting Actor nod.

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  7. NeverTooEarlyMPJuly 18, 2011 at 8:20 AM

    Thanks lime_vortep and Kent! I have been watching the reviews for HP very closely, and am very excited to see it. However, I probably won't go see it for at least another week or two. The reason is that I'm not very good with large crowds of people, and whenever I see a blockbuster like this on the first weekend, I end up feeling like I missed half of the movie because it had to compete with the audience.

    In addition to having it listed as a Best Picture nominee, I believe that HP will be a test case or talking point that people will use to judge whether the new five percent rule is a success or not. If for some reason HP does not get the 5%, but people believe that it would have gotten into a longer top ten list, then I predict there will be major drama! Still, I'm hoping (and predicting) that it gets in even under the new rule.

    Thanks for checking out my blog and for sending in your predictions for this movie!

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  8. NeverTooEarlyMPJuly 22, 2011 at 1:07 PM

    Update that may be of interest to folks who commented on this post: I have now seen Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2. (Thanks to a free afternoon and a matinee showing that wasn't too crowded for me.) You can see my analysis here: http://nevertooearlymoviepredictions.blogspot.com/2011/07/what-i-saw-harry-potter-and-deathly.html

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