84th Oscar Best Picture Updates Post Rule Change (2011-2012 Awards Season) (7/4/11)

Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Best Picture race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.

These predictions reflect the new rule change from AMPAS, who believes it will be more fun to keep us guessing at how many nominees there will be. Luckily I’m always up for some fun, so I’ll play along!!! My predictions have always been ranked, but now I have added my best guess at how many films will meet the new 5% rule. I’m currently predicting that 7 will hit that mark, and hope that I’ve found a simple way to reflect that in the formatting of this list.

1. A Dangerous Method (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 2)
2. War Horse (previous rank 9)
3. The Tree Of Life (previous rank 1)
4. The Ides Of March (previous rank 3)
5. J. Edgar (previous rank 4)
6. The Artist (New)
7. Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows Pat 2 (previous rank 5)

Then:
8. The Descendants (previous rank 14)
9. Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previous rank 16)
10. Hugo (previous rank 10)

Alternates:
11. The Iron Lady (previous rank 7)
12. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (previous rank 17)
13. Midnight In Paris (previous rank 11)
14. Moneyball (previous rank 26)
15. Contagion (previous rank 6)
16. Carnage (previous rank 22)
17. Like Crazy (previous rank 8)
18. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (previous rank 20)
19. The Skin That I Inhabit (previous rank 12)
20. Super 8 (previous rank 27)
21. The Help (previous rank 19)
22. We Bought A Zoo (previous rank 21)
23. Martha Marcy May Marlene (previous rank 28)
24. Young Adult (previous rank 25)
25. On The Road (previous rank 18)
26. My Week With Marilyn (previous rank 23)
27. Albert Nobbs (previous rank 32)
28. The Adventures Of Tintin: The Secret Of The Unicorn (previous rank 29)
29. We Need to Talk About Kevin (previous rank 34)
30. Beginners (previous rank 43)
31. Win Win (previous rank 35)
32. Jane Eyre (previous rank 31)
33. Pariah (previous rank 24)
34. One Day (previous rank 40)
35. Red Tails (previous rank 15)
36. Take Shelter (previous rank 45)
37. The Rum Diary (previous rank 41)
38. Drive (New)
39. Coriolanus (previous rank 42)
40. Melancholia (previous rank 37)
41. Shame (previous rank 44)
42. Rampart (previous rank 46)
43. 50/50 (New)
44. W.E. (New)
45. In The Land Of Blood And Honey (previous rank 48)
46. Snow Flower And The Secret Fan (New)
47. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (New)
48. A Better Life (New)
49. Black Gold (previous rank 47)
50. Warrior (New)


As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Best Picture predictions for other years HERE.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
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