Saturday, July 2, 2011

84th Oscar Original Screenplay Updates (2011-2012 Awards Season) (7/2/11)

Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Original Screenplay race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.

1. Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist (Predicted Winner) (New)
2. Dustin Lance Black for J. Edgar (previous rank 2)
3. Woody Allen for Midnight In Paris (previous rank 6)
4. Abi Morgan and Michael Hurst for The Iron Lady (previous rank 1)
5. Drake Doremus and Ben York Jones for Like Crazy (previous rank 5)

6. Terrence Malick for The Tree Of Life (previous rank 4)
7. Diablo Cody for Young Adult (previous rank 13)
8. Scott Z. Burns for Contagion (previous rank 3)
9. Mike Millis for Beginners (previous rank 7)
10. Sean Durkin for Martha Marcy May Marlene (previous rank 10)
11. Thomas McCarthy and Joe Tiboni for Win Win (previous rank 22)
12. Dee Rees for Pariah (previous rank 8)
13. Abi Morgan and Steve McQueen for Shame (previous rank 17)
14. Will Reiser for 50/50 (previous rank 11)
15. Sarah Polley for Take This Waltz (previous rank 21)
16. Qasim Basir for Mooz-lum (previous rank 9)
17. Jeff Nichols for Take Shelter (previous rank 12)
18. J.J. Abrams for Super 8 (previous rank 24)
19. Lars von Trier for Melancholia (previous rank 14)
20. Tom Hanks and Nia Vardalos for Larry Crowne (previous rank 19)
21. Dan Fogelman for Crazy Stupid Love (previous rank 18)
22. Jonathan Raymond for Meek’s Cutoff (previous rank 15)
23. James Ellroy and Oren Moverman for Rampart (previous rank 28)
24. Paddy Considine for Tyrannosaur (previous rank 16)
25. Julia Leigh for Sleeping Beauty (previous rank 20)
26. Joseph Cedar for Footnote (New)
27. Carolyn Briggs and Tim Metcalfe for Higher Ground (previous rank 25)
28. Kyle Killen for The Beaver (previous rank 32)
29. Madonnaa and Alek Keshishian for W.E (previous rank 31)
30. Cheryl L. West for The Discarded Boys (previous rank 23)
31. Larisa Kondracki and Ellis Kirwan for The Whistleblower (previous rank 27)
32. James Solomon for The Conspirator (previous rank 29)
33. Geoffrey Fletcher for Violet And Daisy (previous rank 33)
34. Victoria Mahoney for Yelling To The Sky (previous rank 34)
35. John Logan, Gore Verbinski and James Ward Byrkit for Rango (previous rank 39)
36. Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo for Bridesmaids (New)
37. Ignacio Martinez de Pison and Fernando Trueba for Chico And Rita (previous rank 36)
38. Nick Tomnay for The Perfect Host (New)
39. Angelina Jolie for In The Land of Blood And Honey (New)
40. Jacob Aaron Estes for The Details (previous rank 30)
41. John Orloff for Anonymous (previous rank 35)
42. Abbas Kiarostami for Certified Copy (previous rank 37)
43. David Schisgall and Evgenia Peretz for Our Idiot Brother (previous rank 43)
44. Rona Munro for Oranges And Sunshine (previous rank 38)
45. Michael Armruster and Shawn Ku for Beautiful Boy (previous rank 41)
46. Rebecca Frayn for The Lady (New)
47. Avu DuVernay for I Will Follow (New)
48. Miguel Barros for Blackthorn (previous rank 42)
49. Andrew Niccol for In Time (New)
50. Kevin Smith for Red State (previous rank 40)

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Original Screenplay predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Adapted Screenplay predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  


  1. A lot of trust in The Artist. I believe that the movie will be amazing, but still don't know how Oscars will react on it. Keep up the good work.

  2. Thanks Vortep! I usually do my predictions in two steps, just like AMPAS does. When I first picked the 5 nominees I wasn't sure whether The Artist would make it into the top 5. But once I'd decided to put it there, it suddenly seemed like the best of the 5 to win.

  3. A film that you should consider as a potential spoiler is "In Time", written and directed by Andrew Niccol (who was already nominated in this category for "The Truman Show") . this is a Sci-fi movie with a very original and interesting plot, and if it will be a success, it might get a big support from the audience and get a nominations in this a category and few others (the D.O.P of this film is the great Roger Deakins), much like happened to "Inception" last Year.

  4. Thanks for this great tip. I saw the preview for "In Time" this weekend and it looked pretty good, and I already had Deakins in my cinematography list, and have Niccol listed here (albeit as number 49, which is probably too low).

    Somehow I hadn't connected that this is the same writer as The Truman Show--a film which I loved-- so maybe I'll need to move him up a bit for my next set of predictions.

    Thanks for checking out my blog!

  5. i'm actully the same guy from yiour Foregn Language Film predictions... from now on, if someone thast's called "Anonymous" is posting a comment on your blog, it most likely that it's me :)

  6. Good to know! I try to watch for similar themes, but mostly reply to each anonymous as if they were a different person, since I know there are at least two of you--Sometimes you even disagree with yourselves! ;-)