Monday, October 17, 2011

84th Oscar Lead Actress Updates (2011-2012 Awards Season) (10/17/11)

I had been holding off on updating these until after I could gauge Michelle Williams’ reception at the New York film festival, and it looks like it was a good thing that I did.

Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Lead Actress race (2011-2012 awards season), with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.

1. Viola Davis in The Help (Predicted Winner) (previously listed as supporting, rank 1)
2. Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady (previous rank 2)
3. Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs (previous rank 1)
4. Michelle Williams in My Week With Marilyn (previous rank 4)
5. Elizabeth Olsen in Martha Marcy May Marlene (previous rank 3)

6. Michelle Yeoh in The Lady (previous rank 5)
7. Tilda Swinton in We Need To Talk About Kevin (previous rank 6)
8. Charlize Theron in Young Adult (previous rank 7)
9. Rooney Mara in The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (previous rank 9)
10. Felicity Jones in Like Crazy (previous rank 15)
11. Keira Knightley in A Dangerous Method (previous rank 12)
12. Kirsten Dunst in Melancholia (previous rank 14)
13. Jodie Foster in Carnage (previous rank 10)
14. Adepero Oduye in Pariah (previous rank 13)
15. Sandra Bullock in Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previous rank 11)
16. Kristen Wiig in Bridesmaids (previous rank 46)
17. Emma Stone in The Help (previous rank 16)
18. Olivia Colman in Tyrannosaur (previously listed as supporting, rank 27)
19. Kate Winslet in Carnage (previous rank 25)
20. Zana Marjanovic in In The Land Of Blood And Honey (previous rank 42)
21. Elena Anaya in La Piel Que Habito (The Skin I Live In) (previous rank 39)
22. Rachel Weisz in The Whistlelower (previous rank 17)
23. Vera Farmiga in Higher Ground (previously ranked 49)
24. Juliette Binoche in Copie Conforme (Certified Copy) (previous rank 30)
25. Mia Wasikowska in Jane Eyre (previous rank 28)

26. Gianna Jun (Jun Ji-Hyun) in Snow Flower And The Secret Fan (previous rank 18)
27. Rachel Weisz in The Deep Blue Sea (previous rank 23)
28. Michelle Williams in Take This Waltz (previous rank 38)
29. Bing Bing Li in Snow Flower And The Secret Fan (previous rank 19)
30. Anne Hathaway in One Day (previous rank 20)
31. Helen Mirren in The Door (previous rank 21)
32. Charlotte Rampling in The Eye Of The Storm (previously ranked 26)
33. Charlotte Gainsbourg in Melancholia (previously listed as supporting, rank 41)
34. Berenice Bejo in The Artist (previous rank 49, also listed in supporting rank 7)
35. Jennifer Hudson in Winnie (previous rank 22)
36. Julianne Moore in Crazy Stupid Love (previous rank 25)
37. Michelle Williams in Meeks Cutoff (previous rank 32)
38. Jessica Chastain in The Debt (New)
39. Kristin Scott Thomas in Sarah’s Key (New)
40. Nicole Beharie in Shame (previous rank 34)
41. Saoirse Ronan in Hanna (previous rank 33)
42. Rachel McAdams in Midnight In Paris (previous rank 41)
43. Kaya Scodelario in Wuthering Heights (previously ranked 44)
44. Robin Wright in The Conspirator (previously ranked 38)
45. Maria Bello in Beautiful Boy (previous rank 45)
46. Zoe Kravitz in Yelling To The Sky (previous rank 24)
47. Daniela Ruah in Red Tails (previous rank 35)
48. Linda Cardellini in Return (previous rank 29)
49. Sally Richardson-Whitfield in I Will Follow (previous rank 21)
50. Emily Watson in Oranges And Sunshine (New)

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Lead Actress predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Lead Actor, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  


  1. loved the list!!!havent watched we need to talk about kelvin but i have read the novel and have watched the trailer..tilda swinton seems good

  2. Thanks! I haven't seen We Need To Talk About Kevin either, but Swinton has been getting some really great reviews for it. My hesitations in moving her up are that the film doesn't seem like it will be Oscar's cup of tea and that Swinton has been overlooked so often before. Still, I think she's in the running if she starts picking up critic awards and enough people see the film.

  3. Yeah Tilda Swinton (along with Marion Cotillard) seem to have been forgotten by voters since they won. I think Swinton will need more than just critics awards. She probably needs a Golden Globe or SAG nomination to get enough attention for an Oscar nomination.

    I think the most interesting aspect about this category is whether one of the younger actresses can get into this category. I think you are on to something with Elizabeth Olsen, but if Rooney Mara's performance lives up to the hype, she could easily take that spot.

  4. I agree Ryan.

    With Mara, I think that she could easily come in at the last minute (Dec 21) and sweep everyone else away, but I can also see it turning out that the hype about her is just a few vocal fans of the book. I'm leaning more towards the latter at the moment, given what I'm reading. I think there will only be room for one "new discovery", and Hollywood tends to prefer those to be from more indie fare (Olsen), so that they can pretend that they discovered her, instead of coming from a blockbuster where they are following suit.