You can also learn more about several of these films from my previous post for this category.
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! To see how I am doing in each race, check out myTrack Record Page. See Documentary Short predictions for other yearsHERE. If you’re into documentaries, you might also like theDocumentary Features. If you’re really into shorts, check out theAnimated Shorts andLive Action Shorts. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
Here are today’s updates for the 84th Oscar Live Action Shorts category. I correctly predicted 2 out of the 5 nominees (40%), although my previously predicted winner did not make the cut.
1. Hallvar Witzo for Tuba Atlantic (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 3) (IMDB) (Trailer) 2. Max Zahle and Stefan Gieren for Raju (previous rank 4) (IMDB) (Trailer) (Longer clip) 3. Terry George and Oorlagh George for The Shore (previous rank 7) (Webpage and Trailer) (Facebook) 4. Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey for Time Freak (previous rank 8) (IMDB) (Facebook) (Trailer) (Lord Of The Films' Review) 5. Peter McDonald and Eimear O’Kane for Pentecost (previous rank 10) (IMDB) (Trailer)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! To see how I am doing in each race, check out myTrack Record Page. See Live Action Short predictions for other yearsHERE. If you’re really into shorts, check out theAnimated Shorts andDocumentary Shorts. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
Many of the professional Oscar sites don’t even bother looking at the shorts categories until after the nominees have been announced, but I rather enjoy speculating on these races. One reason is that I know that my predictions, whether right or wrong, really are my own, and haven’t been influenced by too many other voices. A second reason is that I truly believe that with enough experience and attention, there should be a way to predict these races just as there is with every other category.
This year I correctly predicted 3 out of 5 (60%) in the animated and documentary short races, and 2 out of 5 (40%) in the live action shorts race, with my previously predicted winner in the live action race not even making the cut.
My general strategy for the future remains the same: Watch for entries to film festivals, with the added intention of giving special focus to the films that win the Student Academy Awards, as two of those made it into the live action race.
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! For even more information on how I am doing in each race, and eventually an analysis of each individual race, be sure to check out myTrack Record Page. See my predictions Animated Shorts, Documentary Shorts andLive Action Shorts. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
I correctly predicted 2 of the 5 nominees (40%), with my previously predicted winner missing out, and am therefore taking a new look at the race and shaking up my predictions a bit. I will be doing a more detailed analysis soon for the LAMB Devours The Oscars series, but for now I’m simply posting updated rankings.
1. Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel for Pina (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 4) 2. Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky for Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (previous rank 6) 3. Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner for Hell And Back Again (previous rank 2) 4. Daniel Lindsay, T.J. Martin and Rich Middlemas for Undefeated (previous rank 11) 5. Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman for If A Tree Falls: A Story Of The Earth Liberation Front (previous rank 8)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! To see how I am doing in each race, check out myTrack Record Page. See Documentary feature predictions for other yearsHERE. If you’re really into documentaries, check out theDocumentary Shorts also. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
I correctly predicted 4 out of 5 of the foreign language nominees (80%), with the final one being ranked sixth in my previous predictions. It is interesting to note that all five of these films had their premieres at film festivals, and two of them (A Separation and Bullhead) premiered at Berlin, suggesting that next year’s race may begin in earnest in just a few weeks!
As these films are sometimes unknown to the general public, I have included links to each of the trailers, as well as some reviews from my friend Bonjour Tristesse. For those who want to learn more about the foreign film race, I also recommend Dzong2’s blog and Movie-On.
1. Asghar Farhadi for A Separation (Jodaeiye Nader Az Simin) (Iran) (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1) (Trailer) (Bonjour Tristesse’s Review) 2. Agnieszka Holland for In Darkness (W. Ciemnoscki) (Poland) (previous rank 2) (Trailer) (Bonjour Tristesse's Review) 3. Philippe Falardeau for Monsieur Lazhar (Canada) (previous rank 4) (Trailer) (Bonjour Tristesse's Review) 4. Joseph Cedar for Footnote (Hearat Shulayim) (Israel) (previous rank 5) (Trailer) (Bonjour Tristesse's Review) (Another of my most loyal commenters has also posted a review HERE. It's in Hebrew but check it out if your computer translates.) 5. Michael R. Roskam for Bullhead (Rundskop) (Belgium) (previous rank 6) (Trailer) (Bonjour Tristesse’s Review)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! To see how I am doing in each race, check out myTrack Record Page. See Foreign Language predictions for other yearsHERE. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
I correctly predicted 4 of the 5 nominees in this category (80%), and could have done even better if I had trusted my instincts that the weak year for American animation might lead to two foreign animation nominees, and paid more attention to those who cautioned that the motion capture in Spielberg’s Tintin might not go over with the animation branch. I had left the film outside of my top 5 for most of the year, but when it was deemed eligible for submission in November I relented.
I believe that this award is Rango’s to lose, but have moved Chico & Rita and A Cat In Paris into the second and third slots, precisely because they have not gone up against the front-runner in as many races, and therefore have a better chance of surprising. It is worth noting, however, that Kung Fu Panda 2 received the most Annie nominations, and could conceivably surprise as well.
1. Gore Verbinski for Rango (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1) 2. Javier Mariscal and Fernando Trueba for Chico & Rita (previous rank 5) 4. Jean-Loup Felicioli and Alain Gagnol for A Cat In Paris (Une Vie De Chat) (previous rank 11) 4. Jennifer Yuh Nelson for Kung Fu Panda 2 (previous rank 3) 5. Chris Miller for Puss In Boots (previous rank 4)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! To see how I am doing in each race, check out myTrack Record Page. See Animated Feature predictions for other yearsHERE. If you’re really into animation, check out theAnimated Shorts also. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
In the Animation category, I correctly predicted 4 out of 5 nominees (80%), and could have done even better if I had trusted my instincts that the weak year for American animation might lead to two foreign animation nominees, and paid more attention to those who cautioned that the motion capture in Spielberg’s Tintin might not go over with the animation branch. I had left the film outside of my top 5 for most of the year, but when it was deemed eligible for submission in November I relented. In the Foreign Language category itself, I correctly predicted 4 out of 5 nominees (80%), with the fifth slot going to the film that I had placed at rank 6 (my first runner up). For Documentaries, I correctly predicted 2 out of 5 nominees (40%), and my previously predicted winner (Project Nim) didn’t even make the list.
In terms of “Close Scores” (having the eventual nominees ranked high in my list of contenders), the animated category showed higher scores much earlier, as might be expected given the higher profile of these films. The decision of the documentary branch to snub most of the populist favorites meant that my score didn’t rise until the short list had been announced. However, two of the eventual nominees did win prizes at last year’s Sundance festival, so I hope that by paying more attention to those trends I can score better next year. The foreign films received a boost after Cannes (again as expected), and two of them premiered at Berlin, suggesting that next year's race may begin in earnest in a few weeks. The dip in the purple line in November represents when I moved Israel’s Footnote out of the top 5 (but still in the top 7), as new (but apparently untested) contenders came online.
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! For even more information on how I am doing in each race, and eventually an analysis of each individual race, be sure to check out myTrack Record Page. See my predictions for Animated Features, Documentary Features and Foreign Language Features. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
