Monday, August 15, 2011

84th Oscar Foreign Language Updates (2011-2012 Awards Season) (8/15/11)

UPDATE: See which of these predictions I have gotten correctly at My Track Record page.

My movie watching buddy is out of town, so I used the weekend to update my predictions for the 84th Oscar Foreign Language race.

Two things of note: First, anyone who is truly interested in the foreign film race should visit the Foreign Films blog at There you can find a comprehensive country-by-country analysis, all written in a concise way that even the beginner can understand.

Second, the timeline for the foreign film race runs from October 1 to September 30. While release dates can change without warning, several popular choices look like they fall outside of this time period: The Artist, Polisse, Reign Of Assassins, The Grandmasters, Sponsoring, Play, Faust, Chicken With Plums, Poetry, The Housemaid, Arrietty, Bonsai, Ichimei, The Source, Hors Satan, Loverboy, Terraferma, The 13 Women Of Nanjing, The Island, Say Hi To The Devil, Sons Of The Clouds, Big House, The Deep, The Maiden Danced To Death, Headshot, and Rhinos Season,

Here are my predictions, with previous rankings from April shown in parenthesis:

1. Djo Tunda Wa Munga for Viva Riva! (Congo) (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 18)
2. Asghar Farhadi for A Separation (Jodaeiye Nader Az Simin) (Iran) (previous rank 2)
3. Aki Kaurismaki for Le Havre (Finland) (New)
4. Agnieszka Holland for In Darkness (W Ciemnosci) (Poland) (New)
5. Joseph Cedar for Footnote (Hearat Shulayim) (Israel) (New)

6. Hong-jin Na for The Yellow Sea (Hwanghae) (South Korea) (New)
7. Pablo Giorgelli for Las Acacias (Argentina) (New)
8. Jean-Pierre Dardenne and Luc Dardenne for The Kid With A Bike (Le Gamin Au Velo) (Belgium) (previous rank 8)
9. Nuri Bilge Ceylan for Once Upon A Time In Anatolia (Bir Zamanlar Anadolu’da) (Turkey) (New)
10. Pedro Almodovar for The Skin That I Inhabit (La Piel Que Habito) (Spain) (previous rank 1)
11. Kivu Ruhorahoza for Grey Matter (Matiere Grise) (Rwanda) (previous rank 5)
12. Andrei Zvyagintsev for Elena (Russia) (New)
13. Nanni Moretti for We Have A Pope (Habemus Papam) (Italy) (previous rank 9)
14. Oliver Hermanus for Beauty (Skoonheid) (South Africa) (New)
15. Joachim Trier for Oslo, August 31 (Norway) (New)
16. Nadine Labaki for Where Do We Go Now? (Wo Hallah La Wen?) (Lebanon) (New)
17. Gerardo Naranjo for Miss Bala (Mexico) (New)
18. Heshem Issawi for Cairo Exit (El Korough) (Egypt) (previous rank 11)
19. Hirokazu Koreeda for I Wish (Kiseki) (Japan) (New)
20. Markus Schleinzer for Michael (Austria) (New)
21. Athina Rachel Tsangari for Attenberg (Greece) (previous rank 27)
22. Raoul Ruiz for Mysteries Of Lisbon (Misterios De Lisboa) (Portugal) (New)
23. Eric Khoo for Tatsumi (Singapore) (New)
24. Deron Albright for The Destiny Of Lesser Animals (Sibo Ne Kra, Dabe Ne Kra) (Ghana) (previous rank 45)
25. Valerie Donzelli for Declaration Of War (La Guerre Est Declaree) (France) (New)

26. Lisa Aschan for She Monkeys (Apflickorna) (Sweden) (previous rank 15)
27. Mahamat-Saleh Haroun for A Screaming Man (Un Homme Qui Crie) (Egy Nema Kialtas) (Chad) (New)
28. Bela Tarr and Agnes Hranitzky for The Turin Horse (A Torinol Lo) (Hungary) (previous rank 4)
29. Stephane Lafleur for Familiar Ground (En Terrains Connus) (Canada) (New)
30. Luis C. Suarez for RPG Metanoia (Philippines) (previous rank 6)
31. Pablo Lorrain for Post-Mortem (Chile) (New)
32. Tom Kykwer for Three (Drei) (Germany) (New)
33. Zhang Meng and Jae-young Kwak for The Piano In A Factory (Gang De Qin) (China) (previous rank 33)
34. Calin Peter Netzer for Medal Of Honor (Medalla De Onoare) (Romania) (New)
35. Alejandro Bellame Palacios for The Rumble Of Stones (El Rumor De Las Piedras) (Venezuela) (New)
36. Sajni Srivastava for Ray Of Hope (Tanzania) (New)
37. Runar Runarsson for Volcano (Eldfjall) (Iceland) (New)
38. Janez Burger for Silent Sonata (Circus Fantasticus) (Slovenia) (New)
39. Paz Fabrega for Cold Water Of The Sea (Agua Fria De Mar) (Costa Rica) (New)
40. Wei Te-Sheng for Warriors Of The Rainbow (Seediq Bale) (Hong Kong) (New)
41. Carlos Cesar Arbelaez for The Colors Of the Mountain (Los Colores De La Montana) (Colombia) (New)
42. Pernille Fischer Christensen for A Family (En Familie) (Denmark) (New)
43. Urszula Antoniak for Code Blue (Netherlands) (previous rank 28)
44. Kiran Rao for Mumbai Diaries (Dhobi Ghat) (India) (New)
45. Buyar Allmani for Amnesty (Amnestia) (Albania) (New)
46. Sulev Keedus for Letters To Angel (Kirjad Inglile) (Estonia) (New)
47. Hanny R. Saputra for Under The Protection Of The Kabbah (Di Bawah Lindungan Ka’bah) (Indonesia) (New)
48. Daniel Vega Vidal and Diego Vega Vidal for October (Octubre) (Peru) (New)
49. Talal Selhami for Mirages (Morocco) (New)
50. Sanjeewa Pushpakurmara for Flying Fish (Igillena Maluwo) (Sri Lanka) (New)

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!

See Foreign Language predictions for other years HERE.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  
UPDATE: See which of these predictions I have gotten correctly at My Track Record page.


  1. Great post, there are so many films I'm dying to see in this list. Also thanks for pointing out that blog, nice find.

  2. Thanks Bonjour Tristesse. The list of possibilities really does look good this year. I can't wait until October when we get the list of all the countries' selections.

  3. Well, the nominees for the Ophir Awards were announced , and ?"Footnote" has 13 nominations. it would be a big surprise if he won't win.

  4. Wow, 13 nominations! The last time I did this list I had Restoration on it, which I see got 11 noms and is the biggest competition. But I think Footnote will win in the end.

  5. Ha? "Restoration"? In Hebrew this film is called "Good Morning, Mister Fidelman". Wow, i thought that the way that WE translate movie names from English to Hebrew is bad (for example, "Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs" was translated to "It's Raining Falafel!"...), but now i know it also works the opposite way. :)

  6. Agreed. Sometimes when I'm researching movies the various titles confuse me and I end up not realizing that people are actually talking about the same film. Although "It's Raining Falafel" sounds like a movie that I might actually want to see!

  7. An update: three more countries have announced their submissions. I predicted one correctly and two incorrectly.

    Morocco will submit Omar Killed Me
    Romania will submit Morgen
    Venezuela will submit The Rumble Of Stones (which is the one I guessed correctly).

  8. A quick note that I have begun tracking which of these predictions I have gotten correctly on the Tracker Page: