Saturday, August 6, 2011

84th Oscar Visual Effects Updates (2011-2012 Awards Season) (8/6/11)

EDITORS NOTE: These predictions were made in August 2011 and reflect what my thinking was at that time.  I have updated my predictions since then, but leave these on the blog for a historical record. For the most updated list of predictions, go to the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog.   

This month I am mostly focusing on future years, so that those predictions look reasonably decent before Oscar season starts in September. But with Rise of The Planet Of The Apes coming out this weekend (I’m seeing it Sunday), I felt an urgent need to update the rankings in the 84th Oscar Visual Effects race.

I’d love to hear what folks think about this race. We’ve got dueling wizards, ape revolutions, fast cars (some of which talk), the beginning of the universe, aliens, cowboys, superheroes, robots, dinosaurs, mermaids and war pictures all in the mix. Is it Harry Potter’s to lose? Will the acting branch appreciate Andy Serkis’ motion-captured ape? How many of the summer movies will still be remembered come Oscar time? Which end of the year offering will surprise us? Will any of the superheroes make the cut, or will they all run together?

The Predicted Nominees:
1. Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1)
2. Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes (previous rank 10)
3. Transformers: Dark Of The Moon (previous rank 8)
4. The Tree Of Life (previous rank 2)
5. Hugo (previous rank 5)

6. Super 8 (previous rank 3)
7. The Adventures Of Tintin: The Secret Of The Unicorn (previous rank 9)
8. Captain America: The First Avenger (previous rank 12)
9. Thor (previous rank 13)
10. Red Tails (if it gets a qualifying run) (New)
11. X-Men: First Class (previous rank 6)
12. Pirates Of The Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (previous rank 11)
13. Cowboys & Aliens (previous rank 7)
14. Green Lantern (previous rank 14)
15. Contagion (previous rank 4)
16. War Horse (previous rank 17)
17. Immortals (previous rank 15)
18. Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol (previous rank 16)
19. Drive (previous rank 22)
20. Fast Five (previous rank 30)
21. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (previous rank 21)
22. Sherlock Holmes: A Game Of Shadows (previous rank 19)
23. Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previous rank 18)
24. 13 Assassins (previous rank 34)
25. Source Code (previous rank 20)
26. Colombiana (previous rank 24)
27. Melancholia (previous rank 29)
28. Sucker Punch (previous rank 27)
29. In Time (New)
30. Battle: Los Angeles (previous rank 41)
31. The Adjustment Bureau (previous rank 25)
32. The Three Musketeers (previous rank 44)
33. Water For Elephants (previous rank 35)
34. Hanna (previous rank 32)
35. Rampart (previous rank 33)
36. Twixt (previous rank 38)
37. Warrior (previous rank 39)
38. Another Earth (previous rank 40)
39. Real Steel (New)
40. Apollo 18 (New)
41. Amigo (New)
42. Haywire (previous rank 23)
43. The Green Hornet (New)
44. Priest (New)
45. Cave Of Forgotten Dreams (previous rank 26)
46. The Skin That I Inhabit (previous rank 28)
47. Don’t Be Afraid Of The Dark (New)
48. Conan The Barbarian (New)
49. I Am Number Four (previous rank 37)
50. Red Riding Hood (New)

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!

See Visual Effects predictions for other years HERE.
If you’re into visual effects, you might also like Cinematography and Film Editing.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  


  1. This is going to be a very interesting battle between Harry Potter and Rise of the Planet of the Apes. I don't know who will win, but I am hoping ROTPOTA wins.

  2. I agree Ryan, it is looking like an interesting one. One thing I have been wondering is how much the Academy will vote based upon the actual effects (which requires them to see the movies), versus how much will be based on other influences, like sentimentality over the Harry Potter finale or the actors deciding to either embrace or reject motion capturing as a tool. (which will also be a potential issue with the animation branch).

    I have some faith that the branch will nominate the right set of films, but if HP & ROTPOTA are indeed still the front runners at the end of the year, I'm thinking that their early release dates means that voters will be left more with a general impression, than actually remembering the details of the VFX. (Even having just seen HP two weeks ago, I'm already starting to forget exactly which images I was so amazed by!)

    P.S. I love your Lord Of The Films Blog, and am honored that you're reading me!

  3. Thank you, I enjoy reading your work here too. I definitely agree with your prediction in the sidebar that Harry Potter will win. As you said, most voters will forget the specific effects in the film and will just vote for their favorite film. The sentimentality for the final film of the biggest franchise ever will give HP a huge leg up.

  4. Wow, I have to admit I have never seen a blog quite like this one. Though on the note of special effects, I think Harry Potter has the win, as well as many other Oscars, including maybe one or two acting nominations.

    Brilliant blog, would love to see you around mine as well!

  5. Thank you Matt! I just found your blog and it looks great too. How long have you been a member of the Lamb?

    Thanks for checking out my blog!

  6. It will most certainly be 'Harry Potter' for the win, as a recognition of the cumulative works & impact of all 8 movies.

  7. Yeah, Apes had me guessing for a while, but as more time passes Potter looks like a certainty to me.