This might mean that literary classics have a higher hurdle to overcome, or are burdened with early buzz and expectations while lesser known works impress audiences with their “originality.” Or perhaps it is merely a cyclical dynamic as the Academy moves in and out of its nostalgic phases. Either way, I present my updated predictions for the 85th Oscar Adapted Screenplay race (2012-2013 awards season).
1. David Magee for Life Of Pi (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 4)
2. Tony Kushner, John Logan and Paul Webb for Lincoln (previous rank 5)
3. William Nicholson for Les Miserables (New)
4. Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for Gambit (previous rank 2)
5 Jose Rivera for On The Road (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 18)
Alternates:
6. Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski and Lana Wachowski for Cloud Atlas (previous rank 9)
7. Fran Walsh, Phillippa Boyens, Guillermo Del Toro and Peter Jackson for The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (previous rank 15)
8. Baz Lurhmann and Craig Pearce for The Great Gatsby (previous rank 17)
9. Tom Stoppard for Anna Karenina (previous rank 18)
10. David Cronenberg for Cosmopolis (previous rank 27)
11. Nick Cave for Wettest County (previous rank 25)
12. Christopher Nolan, David S. Goyer and Jonathan Nolan for The Dark Knight Rises (previous rank 21)
13. Tom Bradby for Shadow Dancer (New)
14. Chris Terrio for Argo (New)
15. Simon Beaufoy for Salmon Fishing In The Yemen (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 27)
16. Paul Weitz for Being Flynn (previous rank 12)
17. Matthew Michael Carnahan and J. Michael Straczynski for World War Z (previous rank 39)
18. David O. Russell for The Silver Linings Playbook (new)
19. Andrew Dominik for Cogan’s Trade (previous rank 36)
20. Lee Daniels and Peter Dexter for The Paperboy (New)
21. Will Beall for The Gangster Squad (New)
22. Ol Parker for Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 31)
23. Deepa Mehta for Midnight’s Children (New)
24. D.V. DeVincentis for Lay The Favorite (New)
25. Andrea Arnold and Oliviea Hetreed for Wuthering Heights (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 25)
26. Hossein Amini and Christopher Morgan for 47 Ronin (previously ranked 12)
27. Aleta Chappelle for Macbett: The Caribbean Macbeth (previous rank 3)
28. Rowan Joffe for Great Expectations (previous rank 11)
29. Carroll Cartwright and Nancy Doyne for What Maisie Knew (previous rank 20)
30. John Ridley and Steve McQueen for Twelve Years A Slave (previously listed in 87th Oscar race, rank 7)
31. Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain and Craig Davidson for Rust And Bone (previously listed as original, rank 45)
32. Shane Salerno, Oliver Stone and Don Winslow for Savages (previous rank 44)
33. Menno Mejes, Jean-Jacques Annaud and Alain Godard for Black Gold (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 32)
34. Ken Daurio and Cinco Paul for The Lorax (previous rank 19)
35. Jon Spaihts and Damon Lindelof for Prometheus (previously listed as original, rank 18)
36. Cynthia Mort for Nina (previous rank 16)
37. Sandra Nettelbeck for Mr. Morgan’s Last Love (New)
38. Lem Dobbs for The Company You Keep (New)
39. Gary Ross, Suzanne Collins and Billy Ray for The Hunger Games (New)
40. Judy Morris for The Eye Of The Storm (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 28)
41. Dan Curtis and Seth Grahame-Smith for Dark Shadows (previous rank 45)
42. Ronald Harwood for Quartet (previous rank 42)
43. Tim Burton, Leonard Ripps and John August for Frankenweenie (previous rank 41)
44. Stephen Chbosky for The Perks Of Being A Wallflower (previous rank 34)
45. Terence Davies for The Deep Blue Sea (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 45)
46. Julie Delpy, Alexia Landeau and Alexandre Nahon for 2 Days In New York (New)
47. Istvan Szabo and Andrea Vesztis for The Door (New)
48. Iain Softley for Trap For Cinderella (New)
49. Josh Goldfaden and Marc Turtletaub for Gods Behaving Badly (New)
50. William Joyce and David Lindsay-Abaire for Rise Of The Guardians (previous rank 22)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Adapted Screenplay predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Original Screenplay predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 85th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
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Replace "Les Miserbles" and "Gambit" with "Cogan's Trade" and "Great Gatsby", and you get my predictions in this categor. speaking of predictions, Hrer's my full predictions in the best picture category:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tapuz.co.il/blog/net/ViewEntry.aspx?EntryId=2151184
And since you appear to forget it, here's my Oscar-Live Blog:
http://www.tapuz.co.il/blog/net/ViewEntry.aspx?EntryId=2271081
Thanks. I have wondered whether Gambit might fail here. While it has the famous Coen brothers who did the screenplay, they aren't directing it, which makes me wonder if there's something wrong with it, or perhaps it is just too lite and funny for their style.
DeleteI'm counting on Life of Pi to score big. It's one of my films in AM's fantasy pool.
ReplyDeleteFrom what I know of the story and director, I think Life Of Pi could be really good. It's biggest challenge in the USA is going to be that the actors aren't well known, which means it is going to have to pick up critics awards in order to get on the radar. At first I wondered if its holiday release date might make it too much like We Bought A Zoo, but the story seems much more adult, spiritual, etc. for that. Good luck with your pool!
DeleteAndrea Arnold can go lower on this list. Wuthering Heights is well photographed but the script is crude and underworked at best.
ReplyDeleteI also have a feeling that The Hobbit might be on the final five to replace the Coens but that might be the populist inside me thinking that. I'm also rooting for Tom Stoppard for possibly putting energy into a long story like Anna Karenina.
Thanks for the heads up about Wuthering Heights. I vaguely remember reading some good things about it when it premiered, but it makes total sense that those might have more for cinematography, art direction and costumes.
DeleteI can also see The Hobbit or Anna Karenina easily taking the place of Gambit, which is written by the Coens but being directed by someone else. That could be a sign that they didn't think it was a good enough script to make themselves, or that it was too lite to fall into the Oscar bait category. Especially with Cameron Diaz in it.
Thanks for stopping by Paolo!