Thursday, September 22, 2011

84th Oscar Lead Actor Updates (2011-2012 Awards Season) (9/22/11)

As promised earlier, here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Lead Actor race, with previous rankings shown in parenthesis. Based upon your recommendations, I hope to see both Moneyball and Drive this weekend, so we’ll see if I’m completely embarrassed by this list in just a few days!

Perhaps the most exciting movement is for Michael Fassbender in Shame. It is apparently a fabulous performance, with only the NC-17 rating potentially scaring off some Academy members. Meanwhile, the trailer for J. Edgar has been released. While it has gotten mixed reactions, I still think that Leonardo has a good chance at a nomination, and from there it is all about the campaigns.

1. Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1)
2. George Clooney in The Descendants (previous rank 4)
3. Jean Dujardin in The Artist (previous rank 7)
4. Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (previous rank 5)
5. Brad Pitt in Moneyball (previous rank 10)

6. Michael Fassbender in Shame (previous rank 26)
7. Michael Shannon in Take Shelter (preious rank 11)
8. Ryan Gosling in The Ides Of March (previous rank 2)
9. Joseph Gordon-Levitt in 50/50 (previous rank 6)
10. Ryan Gosling in Drive (previous rank 34)
11. Tom Hardy in Warrior previous rank 35)
12. Matt Damon in We Bought A Zoo (previous rank 13)
13. Michael Fassbender in A Dangerous Method (previous rank 3)
14. Antonio Banderas in La Piel Que Habito (The Skin I Live In) (previous rank 8)
15. Jeremy Irvine in War Horse (previous rank 24)
16. Demian Bichir in A Better Life (previous rank 28)
17. Joel Edgerton in Warrior (previously listed as supporting, rank 40)
18. Woody Harrelson in Rampart (previous rank 16)
19. Johnny Depp in The Rum Diary (previous rank 9)
20. John C. Reilly in Carnage (previous rank 12)
21. Ralph Feinnes in Coriolanus (previous rank 27)
22. Brad Pitt in The Tree Of Life (previous rank 20)
23. Thomas Horn in Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previous rank 21)
24. Hunter McCracken in The Tree Of Life (previous rank 25)
25. Christoph Waltz in Carnage (previously listed as supporting, rank 7)

26. Laurence Fishburne in Contagion (previously listed as supporting, rank 10)
27. Anton Yelchin in Like Crazy (previous rank 15)
28. Daniel Craig in The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (previous rank 18)
29. Tahar Rahim in Black Gold (previous rank 17)
30. Owen Wilson in Midnight In Paris (previous rank 50)
31. Christopher Plummer in Barrymore (New)
32. Paul Giamatti in Win Win (previous rank 29)
33. Rhys Ifans in Anonymous (New)
34. Dominic Cooper in The Devil’s Double (previous rank 43)
35. Ewan McGregor in Beginners (previous rank 19)
36. Matt Damon in Contagion (previous rank 23)
37. Evan Ross in Mooz-lum (previous rank 22)
38. Asa Butterfield in Hugo (previous rank 36)
39. Anthony Mackie in Bolden! (previous rank 30)
40. Terrene Howard in Winnie (previously listed as supporting, rank 47)
41. Luis Tosar in Tambien La Lluvia (Even The Rain) (previous rank 40)
42. David Hyde Pierce in The Perfect Host (previous rank 31)
43. Eddie Redmayne in My Week With Marilyn (previous rank 37)
44. Peter Mullan in Tyrannosaur (previous rank 39)
45. John C. Reilly in We Need To Talk About Kevin (previously listed as supporting, rank 14)
46. Goran Kostic in In The Land Of Blood And Honey (previous rank 46)
47. Michael Fassbender in Jane Eyre (New)
48. James Howson in Wuthering Heights (New)
49. Jim Sturgess in One Day (previous rank 45)
50. Cuba Gooding Jr. in Red Tails (previous rank 33

See Lead Actor predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Lead Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  


  1. I think that people have too much hope about "The Artist". Its looks more like those films that critics just absolutely Love, but audiences get away from. I believe that it will get nominations for Art-Direction, Costume Design, Cinematography and Original Screenplay, but not a best actor or best picture award, simply because this all concept of silent movie is really unconventional, and that academy members will dislike it pretty much like they dislike Sci-Fi movies.
    Therefore, i agree with all your top 5 nominees, accept from Jean Dujardin, who i believe will be replaced by M. Fassbender in "Shame".

  2. You may be right. All the reports on The Artist say that the academy will love it, but who can tell for sure, particularly if the academy's demographics are actually changing.

    Still, I'm thinking they're more likely to go for a silent film than a sci-fi one.

  3. I actually believe the hype surrounding The Artist to the point it will get a lot of nominations. However, there does seem to be a backlash already against the film. I can see it getting 7-8 nominations but not winning any of them.

    It also seems too easy that there are 5 frontrunners for nominations in this category. This category is due for a surprise nomination. I don't think it will be Fassbender (because the material will be too tough to watch for some Academy members), but Shannon and Gosling seem like good bets. The only problem is I don't know which of the 5 frontrunners to take out.

  4. I agree Ryan. I'm thinking that there has to be a more independent American film in the bunch, so I'm guessing Fassbender or Shannon--depending on who can get the most awards from the critics and indie crowd. Although maybe it's possible that they'll consider DuJardin as filling that role?

    I think that Oldman and Pitt are both very vulnerable--Oldman because they have passed him up so many times before, which may mean that they just aren't that into him, and Pitt because his movie may get forgotten in the next several months. Although he is Brad Pitt, which makes it difficult to forget.

    But then again, we haven't seen J. Edgar either. Eastwood usually does right by his actors even if the film isn't a hit, but it's always possible that the academy won't take to DiCaprio's J. Edgar. Although the Academy did go for Kidman's makeup in The Hours, so I'm thinking that the "transformation" will keep him in the race.