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Saturday, December 24, 2011

84th Oscar Lead Actress Updates (2011-2012 Awards Season) (12/24/11)

Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Lead Actress race, with previous rankings shown in parenthesis after each entry.

The top of this category is looking more and more set, with Viola Davis, Michelle Williams and Meryl Streep practically guaranteed to receive nominations, and Glenn Close and Tilda Swinton both engaging in aggressive campaigns that I predict will pay off. As we go further down the list, I start to wonder about potential surprises either from the world of independent cinema, or from last minute changes in category placement. Will voters place Berenice Bejo, Carey Mulligan (twice!), Jodie Foster, or Kate Winslet into the lead category despite the fact that their studios are campaigning them as supporting? And will they really go with a full list of past nominees, something that hasn’t happened since 1994?



1. Viola Davis in The Help (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1)
2. Michelle Williams in My Week With Marilyn (previous rank 4)
3. Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs (previous rank 3)
4. Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady (previous rank 2)
5. Tilda Swinton in We Need To Talk About Kevin (previous rank 7)



Alternates:
6. Charlize Theron in Young Adult (previous rank 8)
7. Elizabeth Olsen in Martha Marcy May Marlene (previous rank 5)
8. Rooney Mara in The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (previous rank 9)
9. Felicity Jones in Like Crazy (previous rank 10)
10. Kirsten Dunst in Melancholia (previous rank 12)
11. Adepero Oduye in Pariah (previous rank 14)
12. Michelle Yeoh in The Lady (previous rank 6)
13. Berenice Bejo in The Artist (previous rank 34)
14. Keira Knightley in A Dangerous Method (previous rank 11)
15. Jodie Foster in Carnage (previous rank 13)
16. Olivia Colman in Tyrannosaur (previous rank 18)
17. Brit Marling in Another Earth (New)
18. Anna Paquin in Margaret (previously ranked 21)
19. Naomi Harris in The First Grader (New)
20. Elena Anaya in The Skin I Live In (La Piel Que Habito) (previous rank 21)
21. Kristen Wiig in Bridesmaids (previous rank 16)
22. Rachel Weisz in The Whistleblower (previous rank 22)
23. Saoirse Ronan in Hanna (previous rank 41)
24. Kate Winslet in Carnage (previous rank 19)
25. Vera Farmiga in Higher Ground (previous rank 23)

26. Mia Wasikowska in Jane Eyre (previous rank 25)
27. Kristin Scott Thomas in Sarah’s Key (previous rank 39)
28. Juliette Binoche in Certified Copy (previous rank 24)
29. Emma Stone in The Help (previous rank 17)
30. Ellen Barkin in Another Happy Day (New)
31. Anne Hathaway in One Day (previous rank 30)
32. Charlotte Gainsbourg in Melancholia (previous rank 33)
33. Zana Marjanovic in In The Land Of Blood And Honey (previous rank 20)
34. Maria Bello in Beautiful Boy (previous rank 45)
35. Carey Mulligan in Shame (previously listed in supporting, rank 7)
36. Abbie Cornish in W.E. (New)
37. Robin Wright in The Conspirator (previous rank 44)
38. Rachel McAdams in Midnight In Paris (previous rank 42)
39. Carey Mulligan in Drive (previously listed in supporting, rank 32)
40. Michelle Williams in Meek’s Cutoff (previous rank 37)
41. Julianne Moore in Crazy Stupid Love (previous rank 36)
42. Catherine Deneuve in Potiche (previously ranked 50)
43. Zoe Saldana in Colombiana (previously ranked 27)
44. Kate Winslet in Contagion (previously listed in supporting, rank 48)
45. Gianna Jun (Jun Ji-Hyun) in Snow Flower And The Secret Fan (previous rank 26)
46. Bing Bing Li in Snow Flower And The Secret Fan (previous rank 29)
47. Reese Witherspoon in Water For Elephants (previously ranked 34)
48. Angela Bassett in Jumping The Broom (previously ranked 50)
49. Jessica Chastain in The Debt (previous rank 38)
50. Amy Adams in The Muppets (New)


As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Lead Actress predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Lead Actor, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  

16 comments:

  1. This is another category I'm lacking on, to date I've only seen 3 out of your top 20 performances.

    Anyways I hope you have a Merry Christmas!

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  2. although I'm betting on Meryl Streep ,I think its gonna be Michelle Williams for My week with Marilyn..anyways...great sets of predictions..

    Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays

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  3. @Bonjour Tristesse, Merry Christmas to you too! I've only seen 6 of my top 20, but in my defense about 10 of the other ones haven't started showing here yet, or just started today or in the past week. I've noticed that the really late releases tends to happen more with the lead actress films than the lead actors, and remember that last year 4 out of the 5 nominees were films I saw in late December, January or even February!

    @F.Franklin, Merry Christmas to you too. Williams has been picking up a lot of critics awards, and I almost placed her first. But The Help is a likely best picture candidate, so I'm still thinking Davis has an advantage. It's hard for me to imagine that they'd give another one to Streep before they honored Davis, Williams or Close, but I may feel differently after I get a chance to see The Iron Lady.

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  4. I saw The Iron Lady last night , and Meryl Streep gave the best performance of her carrier , and of the year. I'm not think she can win before , but after i saw the film.... that performance omg. AMPAS have to gave her a statue for this.

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  5. @Anonymous, This is great to hear! I'm always worried that her nominations have become just routine, but if she has a real chance at winning then I'm completely in favor of it. I'm also really jealous that you've gotten to see it already. It won't be out near me until late January.

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  6. Trust me this is the first year that she can win. I never saw acting like this. When i saw her the old Margaret i can't recognize that she is Meryl Streep. Her voice , her movement , her mimicry... fantastic. I'm not prejudiced, cause i'm not a fan but i like her acting. :)

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  7. @Anonymous, Now I'm really excited to see her performance! I've always thought that she could win another one if she really put on a great show, and the role is about as baity as you can get. Can't wait to see it!

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  8. I'm no good in predicting this kind of thing, especially since I haven't watched a lot of the performances that might be in the running. I did see the trailer for Iron Lady a few times, my goodness Meryl, is there anything this woman CAN'T do?

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  9. Thanks Ruth! The teaser trailer for The Iron Lady didn't impress me, but there's a second one out that looks much better. Hopefully I'll get to see the actual film before too long.

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  10. The film was not really good, but that performance save it.

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  11. @Anonymous, Meryl can save any film! Even in her bad films she seems to elevate them to another level.

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  12. Yes, but at the Oscar maybe she can't win because her film is bad (not get best picture nom)? The Iron Lady had chances only in the Make up category i think.

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  13. Yea I wouldn't be surprised if Meryl Streep misses the cut. There is more deserving performances out there, including Charlize Theron. I think Berenice Bejo will get in as Supporting.

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  14. @Anonymous, I read an article several months ago saying that Meryl's next win wouldn't happen until she was in a film that also won Best Picture. That may be the case, but I also think she could potentially win if she does a really stunning performance, which some are saying this is.

    @Castor, I agree that Harvey will likely do all he can to keep Bejo in supporting, but every once in a while I wake up thinking that she could surprise us in lead. I hope to see Young Adult this weekend, and am very much looking forward to it. I can't imagine that they'd skip Streep for a nomination though.

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  15. I would recommend this book to anyone! I could not put it down. I was completely drawn in to the characters and could not wait to see where the next chapter would take me!

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  16. Thanks Canada. To which film-related book were you referring?

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