Sunday, December 18, 2011

84th Oscar Supporting Actor Updates (12/18/11)

Last week saw a rush of awards news, and this week I’ll be updating my predictions in all four acting categories accordingly.

Remember that the information gained last week tells us more than simply who is in the lead for each particular race. It also tells us which films have enough love to spread the wealth, and which ones will need to focus their campaigns on a smaller number of races. For example, the lack of recognition given to Gary Oldman last week means that Focus Features will likely need to spend the majority of their time working on his campaign, and for this reason my predictions show each of his supporting stars taking a hit to their standings. Michelle Williams, Brad Pitt and Leonardo DiCaprio, on the other hand, seem guaranteed their spots in the lead races, and that momentum may mean that the studios can spend extra time and money focusing on Branagh, Hill and Hammer.

Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Supporting Actor race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.

1. Christopher Plummer in Beginners (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1)
2. Kenneth Branagh in My Week With Marilyn (previous rank 4)
3. Albert Brooks in Drive (previous rank 3)
4. Jonah Hill in Moneyball (previous rank 16)
5. Armie Hammer in J. Edgar (previous rank 2)

6. Nick Nolte in Warrior (previous rank 7)
7. Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previous rank 5)
8. Brad Pitt in The Tree Of Life (previous rank 6)
9. Patton Oswalt in Young Adult (previous rank 12)
10. Andy Serkis in Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes (previous rank 14)
11. Viggo Mortensen in A Dangerous Method (previous rank 8)
12. Ben Kingsley in Hugo (previous rank 17)
13. Kevin Spacey in Margin Call (New)
14. Christoph Waltz in Carnage (previous rank 9)
15. John Hawkes in Martha Marcy May Marlene (previous rank 10)
16. Corey Stoll in Midnight In Paris (previous rank 23)
17. Ryan Gosling in Crazy Stupid Love (New)
18. Alan Rickman in Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (previous rank 25)
19. Jim Broadbent in The Iron Lady (previous rank 11)
20. Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Ides Of March (previous rank 13)
21. Ezra Miller in We Need To Talk About Kevin (previous rank 19)
22. John C. Reilly in Cedar Rapids (New)
23. Tom Hanks in Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previous rank 20)
24. Jeremy Irons in Margin Call (New)
25. John Goodman in The Artist (previous rank 43)

26. George Clooney in The Ides Of March (previous rank 26)
27. Hunter McCracken in The Tree Of Life (previous rank 22)
28. Niels Arestrup in War horse (previous rank 18)
29. Colin Farrell in Horrible Bosses (New)
30. Paul Giamatti in The Ides Of March (previous rank 21)
31. Colin Firth in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (previous rank 24)
32. Nicholas Bro in War Horse (previous rank 30)
33. Benedict Cumberbatch in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (previous rank 27)
34. Jude Law in Contagion (previous rank 31)
35. Thomas Haden Church in We Bought A Zoo (previous rank 44)
36. David Thewlis in The Lady (previous rank 40)
37. Robert Forster in The Descendants (previous rank 28)
38. Tom Hardy in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (previous rank 36)
39. Philip Seymour Hoffman in Moneyball (previous rank 32)
40. John C. Reilly in We Need To Talk About Kevin (previous rank 29)
41. John C. Reilly in Carnage (previously listed in lead actor race, rank 20)
42. Gael Garcia Bernal in Tambien La Lluvia (Even The Rain) (previous rank 35)
43. Antonio Banderas in Black Gold (previous rank 42)
44. Hugo Weaving in Oranges And Sunshine (New)
45. Ralph Fiennes in Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (previous rank 47)
46. John Lithgow in Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes (previous rank 45)
47. Christoph Waltz in Water For Elephants (previous rank 48)
48. Jose Julian in A Better Life (previous rank 41)
49. Sacha Baron Cohen in Hugo (New)
50. Ben Foster in Rampart  (previous rank 46)

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Supporting Actor predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Lead Actor, Lead Actress and Supporting Actress predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  


  1. yeah for Armie Hammer!! I hope he gets nominated.nice set of predictions !! Nice to see you included Andy Serkis too!!

  2. Thanks! Like you I did enjoy J. Edgar more than most audiences, and think some academy members will feel like us. Serkis has some hurdles to jump, of course, but I simply had to have him on my list of possibilities!