Wednesday, September 7, 2011

87th Oscar Makeup Updates (2014-2015 Awards Season) (9/7/11)

The Makeup race is one which consistently confounds Oscar predictors. For one thing, it is a relatively new category instituted in 1981, and since 1993 the award has been shared with hairstylists if the hair effects “contribute greatly to the appearance and effect of the characters.” Still, that gives us 30 years worth of precedent to consider.

Another challenge is that the Makeup and Hairstylist branch is one of the smallest branches of the academy. The public relations branch is even larger than them. And anytime a smaller group is doing the voting, it will be more difficult to predict trends over time.

But the biggest challenge is one that the branch has placed on itself. With only 3 nominees each year, it makes it that much more difficult to see a pattern. The solution for the dedicated Oscar predictor is to pay closer attention to the short lists, where there are often 7 films to look at. I suspect that if we examine those lists, we will begin to see patterns emerge that aren’t immediately visible with just the 3 nominees. In making my predictions, I’ve looked back at the shortlists for a few years, but had difficulty finding shortlists for all the years. If anyone knows of a site that lists them, please let me know in the comments.

Here are today’s rankings for the 87th Oscar Makeup race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.

1. Wicked (Predicted Winner) (New)
2. Pirates Of The Caribbean 6 (New)
3. An American Werewolf In London (previous rank 1)

4. Churchill And Roosevelt (New)
5. Untitled X-Men Sequel (New)
6. Terminator 5 (New)
7. The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew (New)
8. Citizen Hughes: The Power, The Money And The Madness (New)
9. The Alchemist (New)
10. The Witches (New)
11. Captain America 2 (New)
12. Sharp Teeth (New)
13. The Casebook Of Victor Frankenstein (New)
14. The NeverEnding Story (New)
15. Untitled RFK New Regency Project (New)
16. Dali & I: The Surreal Story (New)
17. Independence Day 3 (New)
18. Black Panther (New)
19. In The Heights (New)
20. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (New)

21. Onassis (New)
22. Sparkle (New)
23. Moses (New)
24. The Tiger (New)
25. Nick Fury (New)
26. Deadpool (New)
27. Earthseed (New)
28. Lucifer The Movie (New)
29. Last Train To Memphis (New)
30. The Red Man’s View (New)
31. Noah (New)
32. Peter And The Starcatchers (New)
33. Serena (New)
34. Outback (New)
35. The Monkey King (New)

36. The Pact (New)
37. Pirate Latitudes (New)
38. Mermaid (New)
39. Song Of Justice (New)
40. Agincourt (New)
41. Sexual Healing (New)
42. Fleming (New)
43. The Daughter (New)
44. The Color Of Lightening (New)
45. Low Down (New)
46. A Green And Quiet River (New)
47. Hercules: The Thracian Wars (New)
48. My Eyes Through Carnage (New)
49. Dark Void (New)
50. Logan’s Run (New)

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!

See Makeup predictions for other years HERE.
If you’re into makeup, you might also like Art Decoration and Costume Design.
See predictions for other categories at the 87th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  

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