The National Board of Review has an interesting track record in the documentary category. Their winner has been identical to Oscar’s for seven out of the past ten years, but in the other three years, their winner didn’t even receive a nomination! That places this year’s NBR winner, Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, into an interesting all-or-nothing position, and I’m truly torn. Sequels and continuation stories don’t usually do well in this category, and the NBR has shown that they may like this series more than the Academy does, considering that this is the second time the NBR has awarded this series, while Oscar snubbed the earlier works. On the other hand, it does represent over 16 years of work on the series, and one could argue that the films had a real-world impact given the recent release of the West Memphis Three. I’m currently predicting that it will miss out on the nomination, but if it makes the list in January I can easily see moving it into the front runner spot.
In the years when the Oscar winner doesn’t match up with the NBR winner, the film that takes home gold usually still appears in NBR’s top 5 documentary list. This is good news for Project Nim and Buck, and I’m currently predicting the former to win because it also received a Producer’s Guild of America nomination.
Fifteen films made the shortlist for the Documentary Feature race, and I correctly predicted 3 of them (20%), while 7 of them (46%) were in my longer list. While a few of the ones that I missed can be attributed to the fact that I hadn’t updated this category since April, the truth is that some of the shocking snubs would have kept my score down regardless. You can see how I’m doing in the other races on myTracker Record Page.
Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Documentary Feature race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.
1. James Marsh for Project Nim (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 11) 2. Danfung Dennis for Hell And Back Again (previous rank 45) 3. Cindy Meehl for Buck (previous rank 7) 4. Wim Wenders for Pina (New) 5. Richard Press for Bill Cunningham New York (previous rank 29)
Alternates: 6. Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky for Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (New) 7. David Weissman and Bill Weber for We Were Here (New) 8. Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman for If A Tree Falls: A Story Of The Earth Liberation Front (previous rank 13) 9. Rachel Libert and Tony Hardmon for Semper Fi: Always Faithful (New) 10. Nancy Buirski for The Loving Story (previous rank 39) 11. Daniel Lindsay and T.J. Martin for Undefeated (previous rank 41) 12. Susanne Rostock for Sing Your Song (New) 13. Michael Galinsky and Suki Hawley for Battle For Brooklyn (New) 14. Martyn BUrke for Under Fire: Journalists In Combat (New) 15. Lorenz Knauer for Jane’s Journey (New)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Documentary feature predictions for other yearsHERE. If you’re really into documentaries, check out theDocumentary Shorts also. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
I started to write this review in a way that looked at deep epistemological questions about identity. What different masks do we wear for our co-workers, friends, parents, children or lovers? Do we really know any of these people outside of the roles they play in our lives and the characters they project to us? Is this why the holidays can sometimes feel so exhausting, because we are forced to play a character that we aren’t used to playing? How is this compounded if you are an international celebrity, required to put up the same front for everyone, everywhere that you go?
But each time I started down this path, I found that all I really wanted to do was praise Michelle Williams’ performance. She completely embodies the characteristics of Marilyn Monroe... Or at least, what I imagine Marilyn Monroe to be... Or perhaps, the character that Monroe worked so hard to make me believe that she is... Or at least make me want to believe that she is...
Which draws me back to the questions of identity, and the plot constructions that make the film more than a collection of mimicked smiles and seductive catch-phrases. The very structure of the film, told through Eddie Redmayne’s character, invites us to imagine that we are seeing a more truthful side of Marilyn than the rest of the world gets to see. It utilizes his sense of nostalgia and infatuation to evoke a positive assessment of her authenticity, just as memory and love can blur our impressions of those in our real lives. The film elicits an almost evolutionary response to the outward trappings of vulnerability, even as the other characters warn that such trappings may be mere manipulations.
These questions of identity take on an additional dimension when viewed within their historical context. Kenneth Branagh and Judi Dench play the roles of Laurence Olivier and Sybil Thorndike, here portrayed as struggling to make the transition from the theater to the big screen, and from playing a character on stage to being a character for public display. And in some ways, that historical transition that hit Hollywood stars like Marilyn Monroe has parallels today, as we shift to a world of cyber-connectedness and the exhausting need to present a consistent, professional face in every conceivable context. If all the world is indeed a stage, we may find ourselves longing for an intermission.
As I did with Hugo and The Artist, this seems like a good time to provide some resources for those who are inspired to learn more about the two Marilyn Monroe films that are featured within My Week With Marilyn, courtesy of my fellow bloggers at The LAMB:
Lead Actress: Michelle Williams (currently ranked 4. I think she is guaranteed for a nomination) Supporting Actor: Kenneth Branagh (currently ranked 4) Costume Design: Jill Taylor (currently ranked 7) Art Direction: Donald Woods and Judy Farr (currently ranked 8) Makeup (currently ranked 9) Best Picture (currently ranked 16) Adapted Screenplay: Adrian Hodges (currently ranked 16) Supporting Actress: Judi Dench (currently ranked 20) Best Director: Simon Curtis (currently ranked 22) Cinematography: Ben Smithard (currently ranked 25) Original Score: Conrad Pope (currently ranked 37) Lead Actor: Eddie Redmayne (currently ranked 43) Supporting Actress: Julia Ormond (currently ranked 48) Film Editing: Adam Recht (currently ranked 49) Sound Editing (currently ranked 35) Sound Mixing (currently ranked 47)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
My Lamb Score: 4 ½ out of 5 Lambs What is a lamb score? ClickHERE to learn more. Read more of my reviewsHERE.
In Steve McQueen’s Shame, Carey Mulligan plays a woman who is addicted to intimacy. She is incessantly on the phone with her relatives and past lovers trying to get closer with them, and shows up at her brother’s apartment unannounced when he doesn’t answer her calls. She is afraid of being alone, even sleeping with a married man in a desperate attempt at connection. In her world, the upbeat tempo of Frank Sinatra’s “New York, New York” loses its luster of independent self-sufficiency and instead becomes a ballad of unrequited love to all those who will not let her “be a part of it.”
What’s that you say? You live in a society where intimacy can’t be an addiction because it is a value instead? And therefore I’m supposed to limit my review to counting nude scenes and shaking my head at the sexual addictions of Michael Fassbender’s character? Not on this blog, faithful reader.
McQueen’s second feature film unveils more than mere body parts. It also unveils the structures of anonymity and intimacy upon which our society depends. From the crowded yet impersonal subway trains, to the private yet open-windowed architecture of luxury hotels, McQueen’s settings evoke a culture of conspicuous non-disclosure. We live in a world where we are supposed to be instant friends with our waiters, while making meaningless small talk with our dates. A world where a wedding ring broadcasts personal information to every stranger we meet, but is just as easily disregarded. A world where one’s boss can use the office’s video chat software to lie to his son about his whereabouts the night before, then skip right over the obvious and wonder why the intern is “filthy.” It is a world where sex hides in plain sight, and where the hiding itself is taken to be real.
Overcoming this deceptive onslaught of culturally determined words, clothes and customs requires intensely physical acting from the cast. Michael Fassbender transforms from a confident, handsome professional to a weeping, apprehensive shell of himself. Carey Mulligan flashes from woe to whimsy, and from despair to desperation. Nicole Beharie embodies how the nervousness of a first date opens the way for compassion and sensitivity. In each of them, we see how our human vulnerabilities place us constantly on the brink of our culture’s definitions of the acceptable versus the addictive.
Oscar Chances:
McQueen and Fox Searchlight are very wise to embrace their NC-17 rating as a “badge of honor.” And since most of the Academy is over 17 years old, I remain hopeful that the film will be given fair consideration by enough voters to receive some recognition.
Lead Actor: Michael Fassbender (currently ranked 6, likely to move into the top 5 in my next predictions) Supporting Actress: Carey Mulligan (currently ranked 10) Best Director: Steve McQueen (currently ranked 13) Original Screenplay: Abi Morgan and Steve McQueen (currently ranked 13) Best Picture (currently ranked 26, likely to move up in my next predictions) Supporting Actress: Nicole Beharie (currently ranked 40 in lead category, will be moved to supporting in next predictions) Cinematography: Sean Bobbitt (currently ranked 40)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
My Lamb Score: 3 ½ out of 5 Lambs What is a lamb score? ClickHERE to learn more. Read more of my reviewsHERE.
This is my first year doing Oscar predictions online, and I have to admit that the sudden jolt with which the race speeds up caught me a bit off guard, between the onslaught of late releases and the immediacy of the first precursors being announced.
The Animated Shorts category moved especially quickly this year, moving from the submission phase to the short list before I was able to finish an entry in between. Nevertheless, of the 45 submissions I correctly predicted 14 and am giving myself partial credit for two more --La Luna, which I had predicted for next year’s Oscars, and The Vermeers, which I had ranked highly but mis-categorized as a live action short, giving me a 33% prediction rate for the submission phase. For the Shortlist, I didn’t do nearly as well. I predicted 1 correctly (and am again giving myself partial credit for La Luna), giving me a 15% prediction rate. However, 5 of the films were on my longer list (50%). You can see how I’m doing in the other races on my Tracker Record Page.
The best news, however, is that the film that I have been predicting to win since July (and been predicting to get nominated since April) made the cut, so I’m going to hold on tight and hope that The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore ends up taking home gold. If it does, I’m pretty sure that I will have been the earliest online site to have called it!
Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Animated Short race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.
1. William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg for The Fantastic Flying Books Of Mr. Morris Lessmore (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1) 2. Enrico Casarosa for La Luna (previously ranked 4) 3. Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby for Wild Life (New) 4. Jean-Claude Rozec for Specky Four-Eyes (previous rank 12) 5. Damian Nenow for Paths Of Hate (previous rank 31)
Alternates: 6. Juan Pablo Zaramella for Luminaris (previous rank 45) 7. Patrick Doyon for Dimanche (Sunday) (New) 8. Grant Orchard for A Morning Stroll (New) 9. Matt O’Callaghan for I Tawt I Taw A Puddy Tat (New) 10. Martin Clapp for The Magic Piano (New)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Animated Short predictions for other yearsHERE. If you’re into animation, you might also like theAnimated Features. If you’re really into shorts, check out theDocumentary Shorts andLive Action Shorts. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
