Although the submission lists have been out for a while, I decided to do some research on the new titles before posting my updated predictions. In the course of that research, I found a great site called Movie On that has trailers for all of the foreign language contenders. As a reward for waiting patiently, you can find the link to the trailers HERE.
In other news, 40% of my predictions for the country submissions turned out to be correct, which is pretty good considering it is my first year at this, and we have a whole world worth of films to consider. See the details on my Track Record Page.
Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Foreign Language race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.
1. Asghar Farhadi for A Separation (Jodaeiye Nader Az Simin) (Iran) (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 2)
2. Agnieszka Holland for In Darkness (W Ciemnosci) (Poland) (previous rank 4)
3. Wim Wenders for Pina (Pina: Tanzt Tanzt Sonst Sind Wir Verloren) (Germany) (New)
4. Aki Karuismaki for Le Havre (previous rank 3)
5. Nadine Labaki for Where Do We Go Now? (Wo Hallah La Wen?) (Lebanon) (previous rank 16)
Alternates:
6. Gerardo Naranjo for Miss Bala (Mexico) (previous rank 17)
7. Joseph Cedar for Footnote (Hearat Shulayim) (Israel) (previous rank 5)
8. Carlos Cesar Arbelaez for The Colors Of The Mountain (Los Colores De La Montana) (Colombia) (previous rank 41)
9. Zhang Yimou for The Flowers Of War (Jin Ling Shi San Chai) (China) (New)
10. Nuri Bilge Ceylan for Once Upon A Time In Anatolia (Bir Zamaniar Anadolu’da) (Turkey) (previous rank 9)
11. Anne Sewitsky for Happy Happy (Sykt Lykkelig) (Norway) (previously ranked 12)
12. Valerie Donzelli for Declaration Of War (La Guerre Est Declaree) (France) (previous rank 25)
13. Oliver Hermanus for Beauty (Skoonheid) (South Africa) (previous rank 14)
14. Alejandro Bellame Palacios for The Rumble Of Stones (El Rumor De Las Piedras) (Venezuela) (previous rank 35)
15. Bela Tarr and Agnes Hranitzky for The Turin Horse (A Torinoi Lo) (Hungary) (previous rank 28)
16. Pernilla August for Beyond (Svinalangorna) (Sweden) (previously ranked 32)
17. Ann Hui for A Simple Life (Tao Jie) (Hong Kong) (New)
18. Philippe Falardeua for Monsieur Lazhar (Canada) (New)
19. Agusti Villaronga for Black Bread (Pa Negre) (Spain) (New)
20. Tusi Tamasese for The Orator (O Le Tulafale) (New Zealand) (New)
21. Juanita Wilson for As If I Am Not There (Ireland) (New)
22. Maria Peters for Sonny Boy (Netherlands) (New)
23. Luu Trong Ninh for The Prince And The Pagoda Boy (Khat Vong Thang Long) (Vietnam) (New)
24. Ole Christian Madsen for SuperClasico (Denmark) (New)
25. Roschdy Zem for Omar Killed Me (Omar M’a Tuer) (Morocco) (New)
26. Rolando Colla for Summer Games (Giochi D’Estate) (Switzerland) (New)
27. Emanuele Crialese for Terraferma (Italy) (New)
28. Andres Wood for Violeta Went To Heaven (Violeta Se Fue A Los Cielos) (Chile) (New)
29. Eric Khoo for Tatsumi (Singapore) (previous rank 23)
30. Tomas Lunak for Alois Nebel (Czech Republic) (New)
31. Karl Markovics for Breathing (Atmen) (Austria) (New)
32. Khaled El Hagar for Lust (El Shoq) (Egypt) (New)
33. Jang Hun for The Front Line (Go-Ji-Jeon) (South Korea) (New)
34. Leticia Tonos for Love Child (La Hija Natural) (Dominican Republic) (New)
35. Martin Sulik for Gypsy (Cigan) (Slovakia) (New)
36. Athina Rachel Tsangari for Attenberg (Greece) (previous rank 21)
37. Kaneto Shindo for Postcard (Ichimai No Hagaki) (Japan) (New)
38. Runar Runarsson for Volcano (Eldfjall) (Iceland) (previous rank 37)
39. Mikita Mikhalkov for Burnt By The Sun 2: The Citadel (Utomlyonnye Solntsem 2: Tsitadel) (Russia) (New)
40. Miguel Goncalves Mendes for Jose And Pilar (Jose E Pilar) (Portugal) (New)
41. Salim Ahamed for Abu, Son Of Adam (Adaminte Makan Abu) (India) (New)
42. Sulev Keedus for Letters To Angel (Kirjad Inglile) (Estonia) (previous rank 46)
43. Dragan Bjelogrlic for Montevideo: God Bless You (Montevideo, Bog Te Video: Prica Prva) (Serbia) (New)
44. Fernando Spiner for Aballay (Aballay, El Hombre Sin Miedo) (Argentina) (New)
45. Michael R. Roskan for Bullhead (Rundskop) (Belgium) (New)
46. Marlon Rivera for The Woman In The Septic Tank (Ang Babae Sa Septic Tank) (Philippines) (New)
47. Marc Evans for Patagonia (United Kingdom) (New)
48. Sarunyu Wongkrachang for Kon Khon (Thailand) (New)
49. Hanny R. Saptura for Under The Protection Of The Kabbah (Di Bawah Lindungan Ka’bah) (Indonesia) (previous rank 47)
50. Daniel Vega Vidal and Diego Vega Vidal for October (Octubre) (Peru) (previous rank 48)
The rest of the submissions, in alphabetical order by country, are: Amnesty (Albania) (previous rank 45), Belvedere (Bosnia-Herzegovina), Elite Squad 2 (Brazil), Tilt (Bulgaria), 72 Days (Croatia), Havanastation (Cuba), Chantrapas (Georgia), Returning To The A (Kazakhstan), Back In Your Arms (Lithuania), Punk Is Not Dead (Macedonia), Morgen (Romania), Warriors Of The Rainbow: Seediq Bale (Taiwan) (previous rank 40), and The Silent House (Uruguay).
Additionally, three films were disqualified: The Forgiveness Of Blood (Albania), America (Puerto Rico), and Silent Sonata/Circus Fantasticus (Slovenia) (previous rank 38).
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Foreign Language predictions for other years HERE.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
In other news, 40% of my predictions for the country submissions turned out to be correct, which is pretty good considering it is my first year at this, and we have a whole world worth of films to consider. See the details on my Track Record Page.
Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Foreign Language race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.
1. Asghar Farhadi for A Separation (Jodaeiye Nader Az Simin) (Iran) (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 2)
2. Agnieszka Holland for In Darkness (W Ciemnosci) (Poland) (previous rank 4)
3. Wim Wenders for Pina (Pina: Tanzt Tanzt Sonst Sind Wir Verloren) (Germany) (New)
4. Aki Karuismaki for Le Havre (previous rank 3)
5. Nadine Labaki for Where Do We Go Now? (Wo Hallah La Wen?) (Lebanon) (previous rank 16)
Alternates:
6. Gerardo Naranjo for Miss Bala (Mexico) (previous rank 17)
7. Joseph Cedar for Footnote (Hearat Shulayim) (Israel) (previous rank 5)
8. Carlos Cesar Arbelaez for The Colors Of The Mountain (Los Colores De La Montana) (Colombia) (previous rank 41)
9. Zhang Yimou for The Flowers Of War (Jin Ling Shi San Chai) (China) (New)
10. Nuri Bilge Ceylan for Once Upon A Time In Anatolia (Bir Zamaniar Anadolu’da) (Turkey) (previous rank 9)
11. Anne Sewitsky for Happy Happy (Sykt Lykkelig) (Norway) (previously ranked 12)
12. Valerie Donzelli for Declaration Of War (La Guerre Est Declaree) (France) (previous rank 25)
13. Oliver Hermanus for Beauty (Skoonheid) (South Africa) (previous rank 14)
14. Alejandro Bellame Palacios for The Rumble Of Stones (El Rumor De Las Piedras) (Venezuela) (previous rank 35)
15. Bela Tarr and Agnes Hranitzky for The Turin Horse (A Torinoi Lo) (Hungary) (previous rank 28)
16. Pernilla August for Beyond (Svinalangorna) (Sweden) (previously ranked 32)
17. Ann Hui for A Simple Life (Tao Jie) (Hong Kong) (New)
18. Philippe Falardeua for Monsieur Lazhar (Canada) (New)
19. Agusti Villaronga for Black Bread (Pa Negre) (Spain) (New)
20. Tusi Tamasese for The Orator (O Le Tulafale) (New Zealand) (New)
21. Juanita Wilson for As If I Am Not There (Ireland) (New)
22. Maria Peters for Sonny Boy (Netherlands) (New)
23. Luu Trong Ninh for The Prince And The Pagoda Boy (Khat Vong Thang Long) (Vietnam) (New)
24. Ole Christian Madsen for SuperClasico (Denmark) (New)
25. Roschdy Zem for Omar Killed Me (Omar M’a Tuer) (Morocco) (New)
26. Rolando Colla for Summer Games (Giochi D’Estate) (Switzerland) (New)
27. Emanuele Crialese for Terraferma (Italy) (New)
28. Andres Wood for Violeta Went To Heaven (Violeta Se Fue A Los Cielos) (Chile) (New)
29. Eric Khoo for Tatsumi (Singapore) (previous rank 23)
30. Tomas Lunak for Alois Nebel (Czech Republic) (New)
31. Karl Markovics for Breathing (Atmen) (Austria) (New)
32. Khaled El Hagar for Lust (El Shoq) (Egypt) (New)
33. Jang Hun for The Front Line (Go-Ji-Jeon) (South Korea) (New)
34. Leticia Tonos for Love Child (La Hija Natural) (Dominican Republic) (New)
35. Martin Sulik for Gypsy (Cigan) (Slovakia) (New)
36. Athina Rachel Tsangari for Attenberg (Greece) (previous rank 21)
37. Kaneto Shindo for Postcard (Ichimai No Hagaki) (Japan) (New)
38. Runar Runarsson for Volcano (Eldfjall) (Iceland) (previous rank 37)
39. Mikita Mikhalkov for Burnt By The Sun 2: The Citadel (Utomlyonnye Solntsem 2: Tsitadel) (Russia) (New)
40. Miguel Goncalves Mendes for Jose And Pilar (Jose E Pilar) (Portugal) (New)
41. Salim Ahamed for Abu, Son Of Adam (Adaminte Makan Abu) (India) (New)
42. Sulev Keedus for Letters To Angel (Kirjad Inglile) (Estonia) (previous rank 46)
43. Dragan Bjelogrlic for Montevideo: God Bless You (Montevideo, Bog Te Video: Prica Prva) (Serbia) (New)
44. Fernando Spiner for Aballay (Aballay, El Hombre Sin Miedo) (Argentina) (New)
45. Michael R. Roskan for Bullhead (Rundskop) (Belgium) (New)
46. Marlon Rivera for The Woman In The Septic Tank (Ang Babae Sa Septic Tank) (Philippines) (New)
47. Marc Evans for Patagonia (United Kingdom) (New)
48. Sarunyu Wongkrachang for Kon Khon (Thailand) (New)
49. Hanny R. Saptura for Under The Protection Of The Kabbah (Di Bawah Lindungan Ka’bah) (Indonesia) (previous rank 47)
50. Daniel Vega Vidal and Diego Vega Vidal for October (Octubre) (Peru) (previous rank 48)
The rest of the submissions, in alphabetical order by country, are: Amnesty (Albania) (previous rank 45), Belvedere (Bosnia-Herzegovina), Elite Squad 2 (Brazil), Tilt (Bulgaria), 72 Days (Croatia), Havanastation (Cuba), Chantrapas (Georgia), Returning To The A (Kazakhstan), Back In Your Arms (Lithuania), Punk Is Not Dead (Macedonia), Morgen (Romania), Warriors Of The Rainbow: Seediq Bale (Taiwan) (previous rank 40), and The Silent House (Uruguay).
Additionally, three films were disqualified: The Forgiveness Of Blood (Albania), America (Puerto Rico), and Silent Sonata/Circus Fantasticus (Slovenia) (previous rank 38).
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Foreign Language predictions for other years HERE.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
Wow, you really are committed to this, it must have taken you a long time to do it! Miss Bala was good, but not excellent and I can't believe they choose Morgen for Romania's choice- there were others much better!Thanks!
ReplyDeleteThat trailer site is a blog by the same person who runs http://movie-on.blogspot.com/ which is one of the best blogs covering festivals and awards.
ReplyDeleteIf the Iranians will win, i'll be very pissed off, from obvious reasons.
ReplyDeletewho cares?
DeleteLet's play nice folks.
DeleteI haven't seen any of these movies and probably won't until many months or years after the Oscars. Nonetheless, I've been hearing great things about A Separation.
ReplyDelete@Aziza, Thanks! It's always a bit of a mystery why each country chooses what they do. Which film would you have preferred for Romania?
ReplyDelete@Bonjour Tristesse, Thanks for this. I think I found the trailer page by following a link at movie-on, but was so excited to find them all in one place that I didn't realize it was by the same person who runs that great site.
@Anonymous, I understand. I don't know how much international politics impacts the voters, but if it does it could go either way, punishing a country for its actions or trying to reward them to bring them more in line with international consensus. It would be nice if it was all about the art, but I suspect that's never the case.
@Castor, I hear you. I think maybe 2 of these have played in my area, and there are usually several that come out here after the nominations are announced or after the awards are given out, but most won't show up at all in my theaters.
Thanks again all!
I remember that in 2009, Israel's "Waltz with Bashir" was the favorite in this category for a long time... but then the IDF's military Operation in Gaza happened, and I'm pretty sure that that's why "Bashir" lost the Oscars this year.
ReplyDeleteThanks for this history. I wasn't watching the Oscar game that closely at that time (or at least, not this category), so I wasn't aware of that. I can definitely see how a specific action could derail something.
ReplyDeleteKeep an eye on the French entry. That is a kind of audience pleaser film that will leave voters dying to vote for this film. Plus it is a real story. Once it is shortlisted, it is going to be a main contender.
ReplyDeleteAlso the Colombian entry, it is the dark horse of the race...
Thanks for this Anonymous. France is usually pretty good about picking films that fit with the academy, and if it is a crowd pleaser too then it may have a great chance. I also agree that Colombia's entry with the kids is one to watch for.
ReplyDeleteThe big question for me is which of the presumed nominees to take out. Without having seen them, I'm wondering whether Germany and Lebanon might be the weakest, even given the awards they've won. They both popped up to the top of my list when I wrote this up, but I'm wondering if their luster will fade a bit by voting time. (Although I haven't seen them, so I obviously can't say for sure.)