Thursday, November 17, 2011

84th Oscar Makeup Updates (2011-2012 Awards Season) (11/17/11)

Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Makeup race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.

While the makeup category is notoriously difficult to predict, it may help if we remember the rules. When choosing the shortlist, they have the benefit of written descriptions (provided by the artists themselves) explaining the procedures used to create the makeup (AND HAIR!) effects. While most of us Oscar predictors wouldn’t have the technical knowledge to rate these written descriptions even if we had access to them, it reminds us that skill and innovative techniques are likely to be rewarded, even if it is difficult to see on the screen.

Once the shortlist is established, branch members then watch a 10 minute selection from the film (again chosen by the artists) to pick the 3 nominees. So presuming that the artists choose wisely, a nomination could potentially be secured based upon the characters and scenes that look really good, while the mistakes that viewers complain about after the fact aren’t really taken into consideration until the whole academy weighs in. And of course when the whole academy picks the winner, they are often voting based on their impressions of the film as a whole.

I have tried to keep these three distinct phases in mind when making my prediction, but I still can’t shake the feeling that my top films are too well known for a category that often surprises.

1. Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 4)
2. J. Edgar (previous rank 21)
3. The Iron Lady (previous rank 5)

Predicted to make the short list:
4. Albert Nobbs (previous rank 1)
5. Hugo (previous rank 9)
6. The Artist (New)
7. Pirates Of The Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (previous rank 6)

8. Green Lantern (previous rank 15)
9. My Week With Marilyn (previous rank 12)
10. A Dangerous Method (previous rank 8)
11. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (previous rank 2)
12. The Skin I Live In (previous rank 11)
13. Anonymous (New)
14. Captain America: The First Avenger (previous rank 10)
15. Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes (previous rank 13)
16 Beastly (New)
17. The Debt (New)
18. The Devil’s Double (New)
19. War Horse (previous rank 19)
20. Sleeping Beauty (New)
21. Big Momma’s: Like Father, Like Son (New)
22. X-Men: First Class (previous rank 7)
23. Jane Eyre (previous rank 25)
24. Sherlock Holmes: A Game Of Shadows (previous rank 23)
25. W.E. (New)

26. Warrior (New)
27. The Help (New)
28. The Lady (New)
29. Coriolanus (New)
30. Thor (previous rank 14)
31. The Conspirator (New)
32. Immortals (previous rank 3)
33. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 (New)
34. The Tree Of Life (previous rank 20)
35. Super 8 (previous rank 22)
36. Winnie (New)
37. The Flowers Of War (New)
38. Insidious (New)
39. Contagion (previous rank 18)
40. In The Land Of Blood And Honey (New)
41. Wuthering Heights (previous rank 26)
42. Red Riding Hood (previous rank 24)
43. One Day (New)
44. This Must Be The Place (New)
45. Midnight In Paris (New)
46. The Three Musketeers (New)
47. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (New)
48. Cowboys & Aliens (previous rank 17)
49. Meek’s Cutoff (New)
50. Martha Marcy May Marlene (New)

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Makeup predictions for other years HERE.
If you’re into makeup, you might also like Art Decoration and Costume Design.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  


  1. love the would be nice to see harry potter finally winning an oscar....i predicted j.edgar to win but harry potter had bright chances too... as the makeup for leo is getting good reviews while armie hammer' makeup got negative criticsim

  2. @F.Franklin, Indeed, I am hoping that there is enough new material that Harry Potter can garner some attention, instead of them just thinking that it's a copy of what's been done before. So many characters, plus battle scenes, aging, etc. I felt a little uncertain placing it so high, but if it can get through the various hoops to get nominated, I think that the Academy as a whole might give it a sentimental win here.

    I saw J. Edgar (review coming hopefully tomorrow), and agree that Leo's makeup was much better than Armie's. But given the way the rules are written, I still think it is the best bet for a nomination.