A fair amount of movement in the 84th Oscar Lead Actress race, not only from Cannes, but also from films that have opened without much buzz, some release date changes, and a better idea of which actresses are lead and supporting in a few films. Here are today’s rankings, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.
1. Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1)
2. Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady (previous rank 2)
3. Elizabeth Olsen in Martha Marcy May Marlene (previous rank 4)
4. Michelle Williams in My Week With Marilyn (previous rank 6)
5. Michelle Yeoh in The Lady (previous rank 5)
Alternates:
6. Tilda Swinton in We Need To Talk About Kevin (previous rank 9)
7. Charlize Theron in Young Adult (previous rank 7)
8. Taraji P. Henson in From The Rough (previous rank 3)
9. Rooney Mara in The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (previous rank 6)
10. Jodie Foster for Carnage (previously listed in 85th Oscar race, rank 8)
11. Sandra Bullock for Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (if released and campaigned as lead) (previously listed in 85th Oscar race, rank 24)
12. Keira Knightley in A Dangerous Method (if campaigned as lead) (previously listed as supporting, rank 3)
13. Adepero Oduye in Pariah (previous rank 10)
14. Kirsten Dunst in Melancholia (previous rank 13)
15. Felicity Jones in Like Crazy (previous rank 11)
16. Emma Stone in The Help (previous rank 12)
17. Rachel Weisz in The Whistleblower (previous rank 15)
18. Gianna Jun (Jun Ji-hyun) in Snow Flower And The Secret Fan (New)
19. Bing Bing Li in Snow Flower And The Secret Fan (New)
20. Anne Hathaway in One Day (previous rank 17)
21. Helen Mirren in The Door (previous rank 22)
22. Jennifer Hudson in Winnie (previous rank 23)
23. Rachel Weisz in The Deep Blue Sea (previous rank 35)
24. Zoe Kravitz in Yelling To The Sky (previous rank 20)
25. Julianne Moore in Crazy Stupid Love (previous rank 31)
26. Kate Winslet in Carnage (if campaigned as lead) (previously listed in 85Th Oscar supporting category, rank 7)
27. Zoe Saldana in Colombiana (previous rank 25)
28. Mia Wasikowska in Jane Eyre (previous rank 29)
29. Linda Cardellini in Return (previous rank 28)
30. Juliette Binoche in Certified Copy (previous rank 30)
31. Salli Richardson-Whitfield in I Will Follow (previous rank 14)
32. Michelle Williams in Meek’s Cutoff (previous rank 27)
33. Saoirse Ronan in Hanna (previous rank 36)
34. Nicole Beharie in Shame (previously listed as supporting, rank 11)
35. Daniela Ruah in Red Tails (previous rank 19)
36. Julia Roberts in Larry Crowne (previous rank 41)
37. Kate Hudson in Big Eyes (previous rank 18)
38. Michelle Williams in Take This Waltz (previous rank 48)
39. Elena Anaya in The Skin That I Inhabit (New)
40. Chloe Moretz in Hugo Cabret (previous rank 37)
41. Rachel McAdams in Midnight In Paris (previous rank 33)
42. Zana Marjanovic in In The Land Of Blood And Honey (previous rank 40)
43. Emily Browning in Sleeping Beauty (New)
44. Loretta Devine in The Discarded Boys (previous rank 16)
45. Maria Bello in Beautiful Boy (New)
46. Kristen Wiig in Bridesmaids (New)
47. Queen Latifah in Joyful Noise (previously listed in 85th Oscar race, rank 14)
48. Kathleen Turner in The Perfect Family (New)
49. Berenice Bejo in The Artist (New)
50. Angela Bassett in Jumping The Broom (previous rank 32)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Lead Actress predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Lead Actor, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
How fucking stupid. Glenn Close's movie didn't even manage to nab a distributor, yet you're already making Oscar predictions. A MOVIE ACTUALLY HAS TO BE SHOWN IN THEATERS FIRST.
ReplyDeleteIt's true that Albert Nobbs hasn't found a distributor yet, which could mean that the film (and/or Close's performance) isn't as good as I predict. But given that it is already listed in post-production, the chances are pretty good that it will show up in theaters some time this year.
ReplyDeleteThe premise of this blog is that it is "never too early" to start the predictions. Some of them even go as far out as 2017! And as things change, I adjust the predictions accordingly. I admit that this approach isn't for everyone, but some of us quite enjoy it!
If it turns out that the film isn't released until a year later, I'll simply move Close from the 84th Oscar list to the 85th Oscar list. And once we know the distributor that may give clues that mean moving her up or down the list too.
Some films are big blockbusters that set their release dates years in advance (The Hobbit or Harry Potter), but that doesn't necessarily mean they will be winning the Oscars, or at least not every category. With a smaller film like this, I think it is entirely possible that it could show up at one of the fall film festivals, and that a distributor could get it out quickly, at least for a qualifying run in the L.A. area. Presuming, of course, that it is any good.
So I guess what I am trying to say is that the distributor is one variable I look at in making these predictions (see the Weinstein's Iron Lady and My Week With Marilyn in the number 2 and 4 slots), but it isn't the only criteria I use.
Thank you for stopping by my blog!
It seems likely that Albert Nobbs would have been picked up by now if it going to be a 2011 release. More likely it will be picked up late in the game and moved to 2012...
ReplyDeleteYou could be right.
ReplyDeleteMy sense is that the performance will be great, but it will need a late release date in order for it to be remembered. It's getting good buzz on the net (from other folks like me who haven't seen it, of course), but if it is pushed back to early-to-mid 2012 it won't be remembered for the next awards season.
And if it gets pushed back to late 2012, where it might be remembered, it likely won't be able to maintain the buzz for that long, and will also have a competing story line about why it was so slow to release
But then again, Close has been trying to get the film made for over 15 years, so maybe one extra year isn't so bad? Or the (yet-to-be-named) distributor might decide that next year's field will be less crowded?
Still, I think you are right that if it does get moved back, it may mean trouble for her chances. The poster and pictures that they've released so far won't hold us off for ever!
An update that may be of interest to those reading this thread.
ReplyDeleteDeadline.com is reporting today (7/5/11) that Albert Nobbs has been picked up by Roadside Attractions and Liddell Entertainment, and that they are planning a Fall 2011 release date.
I must admit that I was starting to be swayed by the talk--here and elsewhere--that this would end up going to HBO and putting Glenn Close in the running for a fourth Emmy award. But I'm glad to see that she's going to at least get a chance at an Oscar.
Now, we just have to wait and see what the performance is like!
Close will need an almost perfect performance and the movie will need to be good for her to win over Streep. Streep will have Harvey behind her and I don't think Roadside has the cash or the know how to campaign Close for the win.
ReplyDelete