Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Makeup race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.
While the makeup category is notoriously difficult to predict, it may help if we remember the rules. When choosing the shortlist, they have the benefit of written descriptions (provided by the artists themselves) explaining the procedures used to create the makeup (AND HAIR!) effects. While most of us Oscar predictors wouldn’t have the technical knowledge to rate these written descriptions even if we had access to them, it reminds us that skill and innovative techniques are likely to be rewarded, even if it is difficult to see on the screen.
Once the shortlist is established, branch members then watch a 10 minute selection from the film (again chosen by the artists) to pick the 3 nominees. So presuming that the artists choose wisely, a nomination could potentially be secured based upon the characters and scenes that look really good, while the mistakes that viewers complain about after the fact aren’t really taken into consideration until the whole academy weighs in. And of course when the whole academy picks the winner, they are often voting based on their impressions of the film as a whole.
I have tried to keep these three distinct phases in mind when making my prediction, but I still can’t shake the feeling that my top films are too well known for a category that often surprises.
1. Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 4) 2. J. Edgar (previous rank 21) 3. The Iron Lady (previous rank 5)
Predicted to make the short list: 4. Albert Nobbs (previous rank 1) 5. Hugo (previous rank 9) 6. The Artist (New) 7. Pirates Of The Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (previous rank 6)
Alternates: 8. Green Lantern (previous rank 15) 9. My Week With Marilyn (previous rank 12) 10. A Dangerous Method (previous rank 8) 11. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (previous rank 2) 12. The Skin I Live In (previous rank 11) 13. Anonymous (New) 14. Captain America: The First Avenger (previous rank 10) 15. Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes (previous rank 13) 16 Beastly (New) 17. The Debt (New) 18. The Devil’s Double (New) 19. War Horse (previous rank 19) 20. Sleeping Beauty (New) 21. Big Momma’s: Like Father, Like Son (New) 22. X-Men: First Class (previous rank 7) 23. Jane Eyre (previous rank 25) 24. Sherlock Holmes: A Game Of Shadows (previous rank 23) 25. W.E. (New) 26. Warrior (New) 27. The Help (New) 28. The Lady (New) 29. Coriolanus (New) 30. Thor (previous rank 14) 31. The Conspirator (New) 32. Immortals (previous rank 3) 33. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 (New) 34. The Tree Of Life (previous rank 20) 35. Super 8 (previous rank 22) 36. Winnie (New) 37. The Flowers Of War (New) 38. Insidious (New) 39. Contagion (previous rank 18) 40. In The Land Of Blood And Honey (New) 41. Wuthering Heights (previous rank 26) 42. Red Riding Hood (previous rank 24) 43. One Day (New) 44. This Must Be The Place (New) 45. Midnight In Paris (New) 46. The Three Musketeers (New) 47. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (New) 48. Cowboys & Aliens (previous rank 17) 49. Meek’s Cutoff (New) 50. Martha Marcy May Marlene (New)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Makeup predictions for other yearsHERE. If you’re into makeup, you might also likeArt Decoration andCostume Design. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
For anyone who thinks animation is just kids’ stuff, I offer you this: six of these films are currently among the top twenty grossing films in the U.S. this year, and another four haven’t been released yet. That’s a whole lot of adult money if you ask me.
Will the animators go ahead and nominate the motion captured Tintin, instantly placing Spielberg into the lead? Are there enough Pixar employees to put Cars 2 into the running? Is the current buzz about Arthur Christmas merely a fad, or can it really hold out through February? What to make of the four foreign language films that helped push the number of nominees up to a possible five? Can the mature themes of Chico & Rita or Wrinkles make it into the pack? And of course, we can’t forget that this category has special rules involving a selection committee and quality rankings, which always makes for a few surprises!
Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Animated Feature race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.
1. Steven Spielberg for The Adventures Of Tintin: The Secret Of The Unicorn (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 31, because I thought it would be disqualified for Motion Capture) 2. Gore Verbinski for Rango (previous rank 1) 3. Sarah Smith for Arthur Christmas (previous rank 18) 4. Tono Errando, Javier Mariscal and Fernando Trueba for Chico & Rita (previous rank 3) 5. Stephen J. Anderson and Don Hall for Winnie The Pooh (previous rank 5)
Alternates: 6. Jennifer Yuh for Kung Fu Panda 2: The Kaboom Of Doom (previous rank 7) 7. Ignacio Ferreras for Wrinkles (Arrugas) (New) 8. Chris Miller for Puss In Boots (previous rank 14) 9. Carlos Saldanha for Rio (previous rank 4) 10. Jean-Loup Felicioli and Alain Gagnol for A Cat In Paris (Une Vie De Chat) (New) 11. John Lasseter and Brad Lewis for Cars 2 (previous rank 9) 12. Tomas Lunak for Alois Nebel (New) 13. George Miller for Happy Feet 2 (previous rank 13) 14. Kelly Asbury for Gnomeo And Juliet (previous rank 20) 15. Simon Wells for Mars Needs Moms (previous rank 28) 16. Mike Mitchell for Alvin And The Chipmunks 3: Chip-Wrecked (previous rank 19) 17. Raja Gosnell for The Smurfs (previous rank 30) 18. Mike Disa for Hoodwinked Too! Hood Vs. Evil (previous rank 17)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Animated Feature predictions for other yearsHERE. If you’re really into animation, check out theAnimated Shorts also. See predictions for other categories at the 84th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:84th, 85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
Everyone has an opinion about war. For some it is the ultimate proof of patriotism. For others, it is an affront to a peace-loving society. But it’s truly unusual to see anyone change their opinion from one stance to another.
Incident In New Baghdad gives us such an opportunity. Ethan McCord came from a military family, and intentionally joined the infantry to get the “real army experience.” But after a particularly gruesome attack in Baghdad, and the response of his military superiors after the fact, his perspective begins to change. The man who so desperately wanted to be part of the system now realizes that we are all part of the war machine, whether we like it or not.
The 22 minute documentary brought two moments of realization for me. The first was the repression, and unintentional later awakening, of our common humanity. Trained to view and speak of the enemy as less than human, even in death scenes which are comparable to horror films, the danger is always that something will break through the facade. For McCord, it is the sight of kids among the attack’s injured, and the parental instinct to recognize them as similar to his own children back home. Director James Spione brilliantly reenacts this comparison through his visual choices during the retelling.
The second realization involves a military psychology that rejects the clinical version most civilians are used to. When McCord asks to talk to someone about his experiences, his commanding officer cautions against seeking help, demanding that he instead tough it out. We instinctively know that denying such care is wrong, but somehow the film also reveals how the commanding officer is right: One cannot continue to be a successful warrior once you have stopped dehumanizing the enemy. There is a fundamental option that must be made between two different psychologies, and in the end McCord has chosen the braver of the two.
Oscar Chances:
In addition to winning awards at the Tribecca, Rhode Island and Tallgrass film festivals, Incident In New Baghdad is on the short list of films for the 84th Oscar Documentary Short category, and I am currently predicting that it will easily receive a nomination for its powerful and timely storytelling. To learn more about the film and see if it is playing at a festival near you, check the website HERE.
My Lamb Score: 4 ½ out of 5 Lambs What is a lamb score? ClickHERE to learn more. Read more of my reviewsHERE. See Documentary Short predictions for various yearsHERE. If you’re into documentaries, you might also like theDocumentary Features. If you’re really into shorts, check out theAnimated Shorts andLive Action Shorts. As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
I admit it. Harold & Kumar was one of my most anticipated films of the year. It may seem strange that someone who runs an Oscar prediction blog would also have a taste for White Castle cheeseburgers, but what can I say, I’m a complex person. I fell in love with this franchise during the first movie, and have been a loyal follower ever since. I even saw it in 3D!
So for my review today, I thought it might be fun to apply Oscar logic to a film that few actually believe will appear at the Kodak theater. Please note that with the exception of the final category (best song), these don’t show up in my actual predictions.
The Lord Of The Rings Argument. We’ve heard all season long that Harry Potter will attempt an Oscar run for the final installment of the franchise, so why can’t Harold & Kumar do the same? It’s a classic hero tale of comrades setting out on a journey (to White Castle). Along the way they meet exotic creatures (cheetahs, unicorns, flying reindeer), make new friends (NPH), undergo imprisonment (Guantanamo Bay), celebrate with royalty (George W. Bush), and are helped by magical beings (Santa Claus). The final installment even goes out of its way to point back to classic moments from earlier in the series (Kumar’s medical knowledge, particular types of sandwiches, and an actual return to the famed White Castle!) And unlike that greedy Peter Jackson, they are unlikely to go back and make a two-part prequel after their win (The Hobbit).
The J. Edgar Argument. Oscar loves it when a straight actor plays a gay character, so why can’t the reverse be true? An openly out and proud Neil Patrick Harris not only plays a straight character, but a straight version of himself! It’s a fresh take on the epistemology of the closet, and the ultimate actor’s challenge to not only imagine another lifestyle, but to reenact the painful social constructions that define hetero-masculinity. And then, in a surprise turn, (SPOILER ALERT): he is a gay actor pretending to be a straight actor who pretends to be a gay actor. (END OF SPOILER.) Eat your heart out Leonardo DiCaprio.
The George Clooney Argument. Sure, Oscar respects Clooney for his political films like Good Night And Good Luck, Syriana and The Ides Of March, but Kal Penn not only worked in the White House for President Obama, he also got high with George W. Bush. What better bridge-builder to bring compromise and common sense to our tumultuous political times?
Ending The White Out. With Billy Crystal replacing Eddie Murphy as Oscar host, the Academy needs to do some additional work to bring racial parity to the show. Sure, Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer are locks, but what about the men? This film boasts two actors of color, representing both Indian and Korean descent. And true fans of the series know that it actually does quite a lot to break down racial stereotypes. If they’re concerned about vote splitting, Warner Bros. could even do some category fraud and campaign one of them as supporting. But they better push Cho for the lead, since Harold is the first name in the title.
Nudity. Move over Kate Winslet, these guys are packin! Steve McQueen and Michael Fassbender may have garnered that NC-17 rating, but Cho and Penn embody the heights of male vulnerability by revealing themselves in their claymated and frozen states.
Best Ensemble. In addition to Cho, Penn, Harris and the fantastic Danny Trejo, the final installment scored appearances from Santa Claus, Jesus Christ and the Wafflebot! I even heard a rumor that Santa did all his own stunts.
The Release Date. November is clearly in the Oscar corridor, and the Christmas theme allows theaters to keep showing the film through the December rush.
Visual Effects And Animation. Yes, if you are going to see this film, it is worth the extra price for the 3D. Unlike those other movies that use 3D as a gimmick to steal your money, Harold & Kumar utilize it as a knowing reflection on today’s cinematic times. Hollywood has been blowing smoke in our face and throwing rotten eggs at us for years. Why not reward the film that embraces that tradition? They even include some claymation in honor of the Christmas tradition.
Universal Life Lessons. Harold learns to relax and enjoy life. Kumar learns to take responsibility. They both learn the true meaning of friendship. As if this isn’t enough, they take it a step further and reveal that the true meaning of Christmas isn’t about trees or ornaments, but rather (SPOLIER ALERT) about finally telling off your father in law (END OF SPOILER).
Actual Oscar Chances:
One serious Oscar possibility, since the film is a musical, comes in the best song category, where I currently have it ranked number 13 in my predictions. Before you laugh, remember that South Park was nominated in this category for “Blame Canada,” so we know that the music branch can have a sense of humor when given the chance.
I’m thinking that the song with the best chances is Gregtronic’s “It’s A Very Jolly Day (For You To Die),” which plays during the claymation portions of the film. It has a catchy upbeat tempo that harkens back to the Christmas songs of old.
You can listen to the song HERE. Sensitive readers should be warned that there is some crass language. (Although to be fair, sensitive readers probably should have stopped reading this post a long time ago.)
My Lamb Score: 2 out of 5 Lambs What is a lamb score? ClickHERE to learn more. Read more of my reviewsHERE. As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
