Thursday, October 6, 2011

84th Oscar Supporting Actress Updates (2011-2012 Awards Season) (10/6/11)

As usual in the supporting races, category confusion can play as big a role as the performances. Will VIola Davis go Lead? What about Sandra Bullock, Berenice Bejo and Keira Knightley? I have tried to take these factors into consideration in my predictions. For now, I have moved Viola Davis out of the top five, because I think she will campaign as lead. But if she does go supporting, then she would instantly move to the top of my list as the predicted winner.

Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Supporting Actress race (2011-2012 awards season), with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.

1. Octavia Spencer in The Help (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 2)
2. Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus (previous rank 4)
3. Shailene Woodley in The Descendants (New)
4. Sandra Bullock in Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previously listed in 85th Oscar lead actress race, rank 11)
5. Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs (New)

6. Viola Davis in The Help (I’m thinking she campaigns lead, but would easily win this category if nominated as supporting.) (previous rank 1)
7. Berenice Bejo in The Artist (previously listead as lead, rank 49)
8. Keira Knightley in A Dangerous Method (previous rank 3)
9. Judi Dench in J. Edgar (previous rank 30)
10. Carey Mulligan in Shame (previously listed as lead, rank24)
11. Evan Rachel Wood in The Ides Of March (previous rank 22)
12. Emily Watson in War Horse (New)
13. Kate Winslet in Carnage (previously listed as lead, rank 8)
14. Naomi Watts in J. Edgar (previous rank 8)
15. Jessica Chastain in Take Shelter (New)
16. Jessica Chastain in The Help (New)
17. Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids (New)
18. Nia Long in Mooz-lum (previous rank 7)
19. Marion Cotillard in Midnight In Paris (previous rank 10)
20. Judi Dench in My Week With Marilyn (previous rank 13)
21. Zoe Caldwell in Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previously listed in 85th Oscar race, rank 3)
22. Amy Adams in On The Road (previous rank 5)
23. Jessica Chastain in The Tree Of Life (previous rank 6)
24. Anna Kendrick in 50/50 (previously listed as lead, rank 43)
25. Scarlett Johansson in We Bought A Zoo (previous rank 38)

26. Viola Davis in Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previously listed in 85th Oscar race, rank 9)
27. Andrea Riseborough in W.E. (New)
28. Vivian Wu in Snow Flower And The Secret Fan (New)
29. Kate Winslet in Contagion previous rank 25)
30. Vanesa Redgrave in Anonymous (previous rank 48)
31. Angelica Huston in 50/50 (New)
32. Carey Mulligan in Drive (New)
33. Mia Wasikowska in Albert Nobbs (New)
34. Harmony Santana in Gun Hill Road (New)
35. Michole White in I Will Follow (previous rank 9)
36. Freida Pinto in Black Gold (previous rank 18)
37. Elizabeth Reaser in Young Adult (New)
38. Marisa Paredes in La Piel Que Habito (The Skin I Live In) (previous rank 21)
39. Elle Fanning in Super 8 (New)
40. Sarah Paulson in Martha Marcy May Marlene (New)
41. Charlotte Gainsbourg in Melancholia (previous rank 33)
42. Patricia Clarkson in One Day (previous rank 34)
43. Chloe Moretz in Hugo (previous rank 20)
44. Melanie Laurent in Beginners (New)
45. Marisa Tomei in The Ides Of March (previous rank 12)
46. Amy Ryan in Win Win (previous rank 15)
47. Bryce Dallas Howard in The Help (New)
48. Julia Ormond in My Week With Marilyn (previous rank 23)
49. Sigourney Weaver in Rampart (previous rank 31)
50. Gabourey Sidibe in Yelling To The Sky (previous rank 45)

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Supporting Actress predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Lead Actor, Lead Actress and Supporting Actor predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  


  1. My Predictions:

    JUdy Dench- J. Edgar
    Carrey Mulligen - Shame
    Octavia Spencer - The Help
    Emma Stone - The Help (I Belive that Viola Davis will get a Lead Actress Nom)
    Shailene Woodley - The Descendants

    (BTW - Isn't "Coriulanos" coming out in america in January 2012? do they count the release date in the U.K?)

  2. @Anonymous, Interesting predictions. I can definitely see Dench moving up my list if the movie is really loved.

    I never really thought of Emma Stone as a possibility for supporting, but with the category confusion, I suppose that it's possible.

    Films do have to be released in the U.S., but it is important to read the fine print. It doesn't have to be released across the entire U.S., but only has to play for one week in one of the special theaters in Los Angeles. So for any movie with Oscar chances that is scheduled to be released in the rest of the U.S. in early to mid January, I usually presume that it will get one of those special "qualifying runs."

    If we use last year as an example, then Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine, 127 Hours, Biutiful, Another Year and The Way Back all used this strategy and ended up receiving nominations.

    For Coriolanus, with Harvey Weinstein distributing it, and IMDB listing its release as January 13, I'm presuming that it will get one of these special showings. It's often a strategy that works, especially if the film as a whole isn't a strong contender, but you want voters to remember a specific performance. (Again, see the examples from last year.) The idea is that they let the critics see it first to get it on the radar, and then the general public and the academy voters are seeing it at exactly the time that they are focusing on voting.

  3. I loved berenice bejo in the artist.anyways loved that u included octavia spencer and vanessa redgrave

  4. Umm I would think Viola Davis will go for supporting. Her role doesn't feel like a lead one. Tough to say at this point, nearly all of these movies haven't come out yet lol

  5. @ F.Franklin- Glad you liked it. I haven't seen The Artist yet, but am looking forward to it.

    @Castor, I keep going back and forth on whether Davis will go lead or supporting. Sometimes I even change my mind several times in a single day!

    You did get me thinking though about the late releases, and in the supporting categories it does seem to be even more the case than in the other categories. I think it's because the supporting categories are even harder for voters to remember at the end of the year.

  6. I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that Viola Davis was campaigning in lead (unless there was a last second change of heart)...I did a quick Google search but couldn't find it so it must have been a comment Kris Tapley made on twitter or on his blog or something.

    This category is very interesting. Spencer, Redgrave and Woodley all have great chances of getting nominated but after that, the last 2 slots could go to anybody.

    I'm hoping Jessica Chastain can get one of those spots but its already been confirmed that she is being submitted supporting for The Tree of Life and The Help. If they submit her performance for Take Shelter in that category as well, she could face some major split voting.

  7. Thanks Ryan!

    Davis is definitely being campaigned Lead as of right now, but it is one of those places where I can imagine a last minute supporting surprise, so I'm nervous about moving her too far down the list, much less off it all together.

    My fear with Chastain is that she will indeed split her own votes. Her best chance is for the critics and precursors to rally around one specific performance, and then somehow convince her studios to play along. But if the precursors split themselves amongst her different films, or simply give her a composite award for the year as a whole, then she may be in trouble.