Saturday, October 22, 2011

84th Oscar Supporting Actor Updates (2011-2012 Awards Season) (10/22/11)

Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Supporting Actor race (2011-2012 awards season), with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.

For some reason, this feels like a particularly difficult category to predict this year, which either means that we haven’t seen most of the eventual nominees yet, or that we have seen them already but are second guessing ourselves about why each one won’t make it in.

1. Christopher Plummer in Beginners (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 2)
2. Armie Hammer in J. Edgar (previous rank 3)
3. Albert Brooks in Drive (previous rank 17)
4. Kenneth Branagh in My Week With Marilyn (previous rank 4)
5. Max Von Sydow in Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previously listed in 85th Oscar race, rank 47)

6. Brad Pitt in The Tree Of Life (previous rank 5)
7. Nick Nolte in Warrior (New)
8. Viggo Mortensen in A Dangerous Method (previous rank 1)
9. Christoph Waltz in Carnage (previous rank 7)
10. John Hawkes in Martha Marcy May Marlene (previous rank 12)
11. Jim Broadbent in The Iron Lady (previous rank 8)
12. Patton Oswalt in Young Adult (previous rank 35)
13. Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Ides Of March (previous rank 6)
14. Andy Serkis in Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes (New)
15. Thomas Horn in Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previous rank 9)
16. Jonah Hill in Moneyball (previous rank 19)
17. Ben Kingsley in Hugo (previous rank 11)
18. Niels Arestrup in War Horse (listed in very old predictions, rank 43)
19. Ezra Miller in We Need To Talk About Kevin (previous rank 42)
20. Tom Hanks in Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previous rank 18)
21. Paul Giamatti in The Ides Of March (previous rank 25)
22. Hunter McCracken in The Tree Of Life (previous rank 28)
23. Corey Stoll in Midnight In Paris (previous rank 31)
24. Colin Firth in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (previous rank 39)
25. Alan Rickman in Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (New)

26. George Clooney in The Ides Of March (previous rank 36)
27. Benedict Cumberbatch in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (New)
28. Robert Forster in The Descendants (New)
29. John C. Reilly in We Need To Talk About Kevin (previous rank 14)
30. Nicholas Bro in War Horse (previous rank 13)
31. Jude Law in Contagion (previous rank 15)
32. Philip Seymour Hoffman in Moneyball (previous rank 23)
33. Christopher Plummer in The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (previous rank 33)
34. Jeremy Irvine in War Horse (previous rank 27)
35. Gael Garcia Bernal in Tambien La Lluvia (Even The Rain) (previous rank 22)
36. Tom Hardy in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (previous rank 26)
37. Asa Butterfield in Hugo (previous rank 21)
38. Giovanni Ribisi in The Rum Diary (previous rank 20)
39. Terrence Howard in Winnie (previous rank 47)
40. David Thewlis in The Lady (New)
41. Jose Julian in A Better Life (New)
42. Antonio Banderas in Black Gold (previously listed in Lead Actor race, rank 37)
43. John Goodman in The Artist (previous rank 44)
44. Thomas Haden Church in We Bought A Zoo (New)
45. John Lithgow in Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes (New)
46. Ben Foster in Rampart (New)
47. Ralph Feinnes in Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (New)
48. Christoph Waltz in Water For Elephants (previous rank 29)
49. Geoffrey Rush in The Eye Of The Storm (New)
50. Terrence Howard in Red Tails (previous rank 24)

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Supporting Actor predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Lead Actor, Lead Actress and Supporting Actress predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  


  1. I agree with all your pix, expect from this of Max von Sidow. It just seems like this old cliché little characters who the hero will meet a few times in the movie, not something special...
    Much like 'The Awards Nazi' I Allow my self to do one over the top prediction every year, and this time it will be in the Supporting Actor category, and I’m betting on Ben Kingsley in "Hugo". It just looks to me like one of those performances that absolutely steal the show, and maybe the Academy will find it hard to resist. He might drop in my next predictions (coming in November 1st), and if it will happen he will be replaced by PSH in "Moneyball" or Chris Waltz in "Carnage".

  2. Yeah, I feel like von Sydow is the weak link in my picks. I could easily see him giving way to Pitt, Nolte, Mortensen or Waltz.

    Of all the folks in Hugo, I think you're right that Kingsley probably has the best chance. I read that it is definitely a movie that filmlovers will enjoy, so perhaps they'll reward it here.

    But if PSH gets in for Moneyball then it will only be because of his name recognition. He has a fairly small role in the film, and I think that its release here in the States is too early to carry him through.. Although Pitt will probably be fine, so perhaps PSH can do it too?

  3. Well, there goes Viggo's chances, down that circling drain.

  4. There's always a chance that Viggo will make a comeback once the film opens, but the critical reception wasn't as overwhelmingly positive as I first imagined (it was good, but not overwhelming).

    Still, the season is young, so it's possible that he'll pick up stem in the precursors. I think e's still in the race, just not a guarantee at this point.

  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

  6. Interesting predictions, I think this is the most difficult of the main categories to predict. Besides Christopher Plummer there are no locks and besides Kenneth Branagh there are no decent bets on a nomination. It seems like this category is in for a surprise nomination or two. I like your prediction for Armie Hammer. I never considered him much, but now that you mention him it definitely seems plausible.

    One person I am really surprised has no buzz is John Goodman. He was great in The Artist and it's the type of performance you would think the Academy would love. However, without any buzz, I doubt he gets nominated.

  7. Thanks Ryan. This is a tough one and I've even been considering whether one of the young guys that should be lead might end up here, just like Steinfeld last year.

    I realize that Leonardo doesn't always carry his co-stars the way that Meryl does, but I see Hammer as somewhat parallel to Broadbent in that sense. On the other hand, Eastwood does do pretty well with getting his actors nominated, even if he and his films often miss out. And Hammer seemed to have a memorable part in the trailer, so...

    And I would LOVE to be able to say the words "Oscar nominee John Goodman." I've wondered whether there's something about the part, or whether the idea is that the film is "exotic" in such a way that they'll only want the more exotic nominee of DuJardin? Of course, it's also possible that it could work the other way: Might audiences really go for Goodman because he's someone they know? At any rate, since you've actually seen it, maybe the two of us can begin the buzz?

  8. great list!!
    Armie Hammer was great in the social network and in the trailer of j.edgar,he seems to have some nice scenes....j.edgar and the lady,two films that could shake the nomination list...cant wait to watch both of those films
    nice to see you moved albert brooks to the top 5!
    As for viggo,i feel keira stole the show from everyone in the film..positve or negative,everyone seems to be talking of keira's performance
    being a potterhead,my heart screams for alan rickman...he was good in the film..
    again great list!

  9. Thanks F.Franklin!

    Yeah, I think Hammer has a good chance, not only for playing gay in an Eastwood film, but also because he looks to be the youngest serious contender in a field that is tilting towards the older side.

    It will be interesting to see if The Lady can pick up anything. I think Michelle Yeoh will get a push, but wonder whether Thewlis will be in the conversation.

    I knew that Brooks should move up since I saw Drive, I just hadn't gotten around to updating the list.

    It's interesting that I haven't seen much on Harry Potter recently. We were promised a big campaign, magical even (HA!), so I am wondering when or if that will start in earnest.

  10. Interesting, I think Beginners came out too early in the year to make any kind of ripple Oscar-wise. If anything, I would think Brad Pitt has a better chance simply because he's such a big star.

  11. Thanks Castor. I'd usually agree about the early release date, but I think Plummer still has a pretty good chance at the nomination. (The win prediction I'm much less certain about, but didn't know who else to put at this point.)

    I would love to see Pitt get nominated for The Tree Of Life in addition to, or even instead of Moneyball. I thought he was much better there, and the star power will definitely help. I had him at number 5 in my last predictions, and although he dropped to number 6 here, he's definitely still in the running. My only hesitations are that Malick actors don't often get in for acting (not that there are a ton of films to examine by way of precedence), as well as wondering how likely it is that he will get a double nomination. My preference is that he'd be snubbed for Moneyball and get in (or even win) for Tree Of Life, but sometimes it is hard for leading men who go the supporting route.