87th Oscar Lead Actor Updates (2014-2015 Awards Season) (12/14/2014)

The best actor race is filled with important biographical pieces on the one hand, and stunning out of the box performances on the other.

Jake Gyllenhaal’s Nightcrawler was a particular favorite in my household, and I may still move him into the top five before January (or even next weekend after I see Foxcatcher). But the fundamentals of the race are still against him even after those SAG and Golden Globe nominations: It’s a film from a small studio with a small campaign budget that got a relatively small release, there aren’t any best picture coattails for him to ride to the nomination, and the actors branch usually prefers to nominate “creepy” characters in the supporting category rather than in lead. Still, here’s hoping that Jake makes the necessary rounds to promote the film -- and that voters actually put the screener in the DVD player to watch it!

1. Michael Keaton in Birdman (Predicted Winner)
2. Eddie Redmayne in The Theory Of Everything
3. David Oyelowo in Selma
4. Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game
5. Steve Carell in Foxcatcher

Alternates:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler
7. Timothy Spall in Mr. Turner
8. Bradley Cooper in American Sniper
9. Oscar Isaac in A Most Violent Year
10. Jack O’Connell in Unbroken
11. Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel
12. Miles Teller in Whiplash
13. Tom Hardy in Locke
14. Channing Tatum in Foxcatcher
15. Joaquin Phoenix in Inherent Vice
16. Bill Murray in St. Vincent
17. Matthew McConaughey in Interstellar
18. Ellar Coltrane in Boyhood
19. Ben Affleck in Gone Girl
20. Chadwick Boseman in Get On Up
21. Christoph Waltz in Big Eyes
22. Brad Pitt in Fury
23. Brendan Gleeson in Calvary
24. John Lithgow in Love Is Strange
25. James Corden in Into The Woods

26. Christian Bale in Exodus: Gods And Kings
27. Gael Garcia Bernal in Rosewater
28. Bill Hader in The Skeleton Twins
29. Alfred Molina in Love Is Strange
30. Philip Seymour Hoffman in A Most Wanted Man
31. Mark Wahlberg in The Gambler
32. Mark Ruffalo in Begin Again
33. Chris Rock in Top Five
34. Jeremy Renner in Kill The Messenger
35. Bill Nighy in Pride
36. James McAvoy in The Disappearance Of Eleanor Rigby
37. Jim Broadbent in Le Week-End
38. Andre Benjamin in Jimi: All Is By My Side
39. Aleksey Serebryakov in Leviathan
40. Tommy Lee Jones in The Homesman
41. Russell Crowe in Noah
42. Colin Firth in The Railway Man
43. Michael Pena in Cesar Chavez
44. Robert Downey Jr. in The Judge
45. Al Pacino in The Humbling
46. Viggo Mortensen in The Two Faces Of January
47. Jude Law in Dom Hemingway
48. Kevin Costner in Black Or White
49. Jon Favreau in Chef
50. George Clooney in The Monuments Men

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!    

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87th Oscar Visual Effects Updates (2014-2015 Awards Season) (12/13/14)

The Visual Effects Branch has already narrowed their short list down to the top ten, so this should be an easy one, right? It is important to remember, however, that this is one of the branches that holds a “bake off” -- meaning that they are not only judging what us mere mortals can see on the screen, but also awarding the behind-the-scenes techniques that go into it.

Interstellar still looks like the assumed winner here, largely because it is the only serious best picture contender. However, if it misses the best picture nomination as I predicted on Thursday, then either Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes or The Hobbit finale have a fighting chance of seeing an award for their franchises.

1. Interstellar (Predicted Winner)
2. Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes
3. The Hobbit: The Battle Of The Five Armies
4. Guardians Of The Galaxy
5. Godzilla

Alternates:

6. Transformers: Age Of Extinction
7. Maleficent
8. X-Men: Days Of Future Past
9. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
10. Night At The Museum: Secret Of The Tomb

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!

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87th Oscar Best Picture Updates (2014-2015 Awards Season) (12/11/14)

Now that the Golden Globe nominations are out, it’s about time for me to update some Oscar predictions! I’m a little out of practice, but I’ll try to get through all the categories before the nominations on January 15th.

In the best picture race, I feel fairly confident in the top five spaces, but beyond that it gets a little messy. Will the technical branches rally to the support of Christopher Nolan’s  Interstellar? Does the World War II generation have enough votes to pull in Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken? Will the love for Damien Chazelle’s Whiplash extend beyond the guaranteed nod for J.K. Simmons?

1. Boyhood (Predicted Winner)
2. Birdman
3. The Imitation Game
4. Selma
5. The Theory Of Everything
6. The Grand Budapest Hotel
7. Foxcatcher
8. Gone Girl
9. Whiplash

Alternates:

10. Interstellar
11. Unbroken
12. Mr. Turner
13. Into The Woods
14. A Most Violent Year
15. Nightcrawler
16. Inherent Vice
17. Big Eyes
18. American Sniper
19. Love Is Strange
20. Wild
21. Pride
22. Still Alice
23. Fury
24. The Hobbit: The Battle Of The Five Armies
25. The Homesman
26. Exodus: Gods And Kings
27. Two Days One Night
28. Snowpiercer
29. St. Vincent
30. Get On Up

31. Ida
32. The Lego Movie
33. Dear White People
34. Rosewater
35. Under The Skin
36. Leviathan
37. Belle
38. Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes
39. The Skeleton Twins
40. The Disappearance Of Eleanor Rigby
41. Guardians Of The Galaxy
42. The Immigrant
43. Top Five
44. Locke
45. The Judge
46. The Gambler
47. Calvary
48. Noah
49. Begin Again
50. The Fault In Our Stars

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!

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