Tuesday, December 20, 2011

84th Oscar Supporting Actress Updates (12/20/11)

Continuing with my look at the post-critic’s week race, here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Supporting Actress race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.

Two factors surprised me as I made these. The first was Jessica Chastain. Two weeks ago I would have guessed that her many performances would leave her competing against herself. While some critics circles have rightly singled out her performances in Take Shelter and The Tree Of Life, last week’s big three finally settled on The Help. If she can keep her focus there, then I think she has a great shot at the nomination. And as you can see below, I think that if she can muster the nomination, her numerous films this year may even allow her to steal the crown away from her co-star Octavia Spencer. We’ll never look at Celia Foote and Minny Jackson’s relationship the same way again.

The second surprise was moving Vanessa Redgrave out of the top five. Many pundits think that she’ll still make a comeback after her presumed BAFTA nomination, but the statistics suggest otherwise. Over the past ten years, 28 out of 50 BAFTA supporting ladies have gone on to receive Oscar nominations, but 26 of them were in films that were either best picture nominees, or that had at least one other acting nomination for the same film. The other two were Cate Blanchett in I’m Not There and Holly Hunter in Thirteen, both of whom received nominations from all three of the groups that Redgrave missed out on last week: SAG, the Critic’s Choice and the Golden Globes. I’m not suggesting that voters care about such statistics, but rather I’m pointing out that things start to tighten up at this point, and it’s difficult to keep your name in the conversation if there’s not some additional weight behind you.

1. Jessica Chastain for The Help (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 16)
2. Octavia Spencer for The Help (previous rank 1)
3. Shailene Woodley for The Descendants (previous rank 3)
4. Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs (previous rank 5)
5. Berenice Bejo for The Artist (previous rank 7)

6. Vanessa Redgrave for Coriolanus (previous rank 2)
7. Carey Mulligan for Shame (previous rank 10)
8. Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids (previous rank 17)
9. Kate Winslet for Carnage (previous rank 13)
10. Judi Dench for J. Edgar (previous rank 9)
11. Sandra Bullock for Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previous rank 4)
12. Jessica Chastain for Take Shelter (previous rank 15)
13. Jessica Chastain for The Tree Of Life (previous rank 23)
14. Jodie Foster for Carnage (previously listed as lead actress, rank 13)
15. Marion Cotillard for Midnight In Paris (previous rank 19)
16. Harmony Santana for Gun Hill Road (previous rank 34)
17. Judy Greer for The Descendants (New)
18. Anjelica Huston for 50/50 (previous rank 31)
19. Kim Wayans for Pariah (New)
20. Jeannie Berlin for Margaret (New)
21. Nia Long for Mooz-lum (previous rank 18)
22. Emily Watson for War Horse (previous rank 12)
23. Evan Rachel Wood for The Ides Of March (previous rank 11)
24. Elle Fanning for Super 8 (previous rank 39)
25. Amy Ryan for Win Win (previous rank 46)

26. Nicole Beharie for Shame (previously listed as lead, rank 40)
27. Vanessa Redgrave for Anonymous (previous rank 30)
28. Naomi Watts for J. Edgar (previous rank 14)
29. Charlotte Rampling for Melancholia (New)
30. Marisa Paredes for La Piel Que Habito (The Skin I Live In) (previous rank 38)
31. Anna Kendrick for 50/50 (previous rank 24)
32. Carey Mulligan for Drive (previous rank 32)
33. Zoe Caldwell for Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previous rank 21)
34. Andrea Riseborough for W.E. (previous rank 27)
35. Mia Wasikowska for Albert Nobbs (previous rank 33)
36. Melanie Laurent for Beginners (previous rank 44)
37. Bryce Dallas Howard for The Help (previous rnk 47)
38. Sarah Paulson for Martha Marcy May Marlene (previous rank 40)
39. Judi Dench for Jane Eyre (previously ranked 49)
40. J. Smith-Cameron for Margaret (New)
41. Judi Dench for My Week With Marilyn (previous rank 20)
42. Scarlett Johansson for We Bought A Zoo (previous rank 25)
43. Marisa Tomei for The Ides Of March (previous rank 45)
44. Viola Davis for Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previous rank 26)
45. Chloe Moretz for Hugo (previous rank 43)
46. Pernell Walker for Pariah (New)
47. Lisa Feret for Mozart’s Sister (New)
48. Kate Winslet for Contagion (previous rank 29)
49. Kathy Burke for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (New)
50. Cate Blanchett for Hanna (New)

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Supporting Actress predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Lead Actor, Lead Actress and Supporting Actor predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  

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