87th Oscar Supporting Actor Updates (2014-2015 Awards Season) (5/29/2014)

There are still quite a few unknown factors in this year’s supporting actor race, chief among them being the possibilities for category placement (and category fraud) for some of the candidates.

Foxcatcher looks like it has the potential for competing runs from Mark Ruffalo and Channing Tatum. But before Channing pushes too hard for a win, I’d remind him of what Michael Caine told Tom Cruise in 2000: “If you had won this [supporting actor award], your price would have gone down so fast. Have you any idea what supporting actors get paid?”

1. Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher (Predicted Winner)

2. Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice

3. Edward Norton in Birdman

4. J.K. Simmons in Whiplash

5. Channing Tatum in Foxcatcher

Alternates:

6. Neil Patrick Harris in Gone Girl

7. Robert Duvall in The Judge

8. Martin Sheen in Trash

9. Benicio Del Toro in Inherent Vice

10. Christoph Waltz in Big Eyes

11. Logan Lerman in Fury

12. Matthias Schoenaerts in Suite Francaise

13. Miyavi in Unbroken

14. Albert Brooks in A Most Violent Year

15. Johnny Depp in Into The Woods

16. Christopher Walken in Jersey Boys

17. James Franco in True Story

18. Philip Seymour Hoffman in A Most Wanted Man

19. Joaquin Phoenix in The Immigrant

20. Garrett Hedlund in Unbroken

21. Robert Pattinson in Queen Of The Desert

22. Corey Stoll in Dark Places

23. James Corden in Into The Woods

24. Paul Jesson in Mr. Turner

25. John Lithgow in Love Is Strange

26. Gary Oldman in Child 44

27. Terence Stamp in Big Eyes

28. Domhnall Gleeson in Unbroken

29. Paul Dano in Love & Mercy

30. Colin Firth in Magic In The Moonlight

31. Colin Farrell in Miss Julie

32. Tony Revolori in The Grand Budapest Hotel

33. John Cusack in Maps To The Stars

34. Alfred Molina in Love Is Strange

35. Kyle Chandler in Carol

36. Tye Sheridan in Dark Places

37. Joel Edgerton in Exodus: Gods And Kings

38. Hiroyuki Sanada in The Railway Man

39. Paul Giamatti in Love & Mercy

40. Vincent Piazza in Jersey Boys

41. Jeremy Renner in The Immigrant

42. Ethan Hawke in Boyhood

43. Gary Oldman in Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes

44. John Lithgow in Cesar Chavez

45. Liev Schreiber in Pawn Sacrifice

46. Steve Buscemi in The Cobbler

47. Roger Ashton-Griffiths in Mr. Turner

48. Mike Doyle in Jersey Boys

49. James Franco in Queen Of The Desert

50. Robert Pattinson in Maps To The Stars

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!    

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87th Oscar Supporting Actress Updates (2014-2015 Awards Season) (5/25/2014)

I find the supporting categories particularly difficult to predict in advance, especially for films that aren’t direct adaptations of previous work. But predict we must, so I’ll try my hand anyway. Some of these actresses also appear on my Lead Actress predictions, since it is often difficult to know who will have the bigger roles -- and more importantly, who will get the bigger campaigns.

For the moment I’m going with Emma Stone for the win, since she has three films out this year and could fit the mold of the “American Sweetheart” that Oscar often rewards. We’ll see how close I get when the nominations come out in January!

1. Emma Stone in Birdman (Predicted Winner)

2. Anna Kendrick in Into The Woods

3. Viola Davis in Get On Up

4. Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year

5. Kristin Scott Thomas in Suite Francaise

Alternates:

6. Emily Blunt in Into The Woods

7. Julianne Moore in Maps To The Stars

8. Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game

9. Annette Bening in The Search

10. Meryl Streep in Suffragette

11. Rooney Mara in Carol

12. Laura Dern in Wild

13. Naomi Watts in St. Vincent De Van Nuys

14. Patricia Arquette in Boyhood

15. Marion Cotillard in Macbeth

16. Katherine Waterston in Inherent Vice

17. Rooney Mara in Trash

18. Marisa Tomei in Love Is Strange

19. Octavia Spencer in Get On Up

20. Felicity Jones in Theory Of Everything

21. Jacki Weaver in Magic In The Moonlight

22. Naomi Watts in Birdman

23. Judy Greer in Men, Women And Children

24. Krysten Ritter in Big Eyes

25. Vanessa Redgrave in Foxcatcher

26. Shohreh Aghdashloo in Rosewater

27. Jena Malone in Inherent Vice

28. Helena Bonham Carter in Suffragette

29. Anika Noni Rose in Half Of A Yellow Sun

30. Marcia Gay Harden in Magic In The Moonlight

31. Lesley Manville in Mr. Turner

32. Nicole Kidman in The Railway Man

33. Samantha Morton in Miss Julie

34. America Ferrera in Cesar Chavez

35. Carrie Coon in Gone Girl

36. Meryl Streep in The Homesman

37. Noomi Rapace in Child 44

38. Reese Witherspoon in Inherent Vice

39. Jessica Chastain in Interstellar

40. Octavia Spencer in Black And White

41. Rosemary DeWitt in Kill The Messenger

42. Andrea Riseborough in Birdman

43. Sophie Okonedo in War Book

44. Anne Hathaway in Interstellar

45. Susan Sarandon in Tammy

46. Indira Varma in Exodus: Gods And Kings

47. Rosario Dawson in Cesar Chavez

48. Cate Blanchett in The Monuments Men

49. Emma Watson in Noah

50. Cameron Diaz in Annie

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!

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87th Oscar Lead Actor Updates (2014-2015 Awards Season) (5/22/2014)

There are several younger actors with prestige films out this year, but I predict that Oscar will go for a lineup of veterans over the age of forty. The Academy loves to reward career actors who have paid their dues with a nomination, and Steve Carell, Michael Keaton and Timothy Spall certain fit the bill.

Personally, I’m hoping that part of Steve Carell’s acceptance speech includes something like: “Hey, an Oscar is much better than an Emmy!”.... Or perhaps a shout-out to Nicole Kidman for giving him the idea for the nose?

1. Steve Carell in Foxcatcher (Predicted Winner)

2. Michael Keaton in Birdman

3. Timothy Spall in Mr. Turner

4. Joaquin Phoenix in Inherent Vice

5. Christoph Waltz in Big Eyes

Alternates:

6. Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game

7. Jack O’Connell in Unbroken

8. Chadwick Boseman in Get On Up

9. Ben Affleck in Gone Girl

10. Oscar Isaac in A Most Violent Year

11. Bradley Cooper in American Sniper

12. Jeremy Renner in Kill The Messenger

13. Eddie Redmayne in Theory Of Everything

14. Michael Fassbender in Macbeth

15. Gael Garcia Bernal in Rosewater

16. Robert Downey Jr. in The Judge

17. Brad Pitt in Fury

18. Bradley Cooper in Deep Tiki (aka Untitled Cameron Crowe Project)

19. Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel

20. Michael Peña in Cesar Chavez

21. Tommy Lee Jones in The Homesman

22. Tom Hardy in Locke

23. Matthew McConaughey in Interstellar

24. Channing Tatum in Foxcatcher

25. Ben Foster in Untitled Lance Armstrong Biopic

26. Christian Bale in Exodus: Gods And Kings

27. John Lithgow in Love Is Strange

28. James McAvoy in The Disappearance Of Eleanor Rigby

29. Brendan Gleeson in Calvary

30. Miles Teller in Whiplash

31. Bill Murray in St. Vincent De Van Nuys

32. John Lloyd Young in Jersey Boys

33. Gaspard Ulliel in Saint Laurent

34. Chiwetel Ejiofor in Half Of A Yellow Sun

35. Colin Firth in The Railway Man

36. Alfred Molina in Love Is Strange

37. Russell Crowe in Noah

38. George Clooney in The Monuments Men

39. Jon Hamm in Million Dollar Arm

40. Jesse Eisenberg in The Double

41. Jonah Hill in True Story

42. Al Pacino in Manglehorn

43. Philip Seymour Hoffman in A Most Wanted Man

44. Jude Law in Dom Hemingway

45. Bradley Cooper in Serena

46. Eltar Coltrane in Boyhood

47. Tom Hardy in Child 44

48. Tobey Maguire in Pawn Sacrifice

49. Christopher Plummer in Elsa & Fred

50. Jake Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!

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