Big news out of the Academy this week as the Costume Designers are granted their own branch, and the Makeup And Hairstylists branch expands their representation on the board of governors from one to three members.
What does this mean for the Oscars? Probably very little in the short run. The actual Oscar voters remain the same, and even the nominations for costumes were already decided by the 110 member costume sub-group of the larger Designers branch (which was known until just last year as the Art Directors branch). Still, it is worth noting that Les Miserables is the only film to be nominated in all three of the impacted branches: Production Design, Costume Design and Makeup And Hairstyling.
Where the changes will really be significant is in terms of administration and governance for the academy. Over time it is possible that we could see a different proportion or configuration of new members admitted to the Academy in these branches, although my sense is that they already functioned with a fair amount of internal autonomy before the change.
For our Academy Members Project, though, it means that next July will see five new governors added to the board, which potentially means five new Academy members that I haven’t discovered yet. I’ll also be on watch over the next few weeks to see if any costume designers or makeup and hair specialists give public comments praising the change.
A slightly larger task will be going through the Designers Branch members who we’ve already identified and reassigning the costume designers to the correct branch. It won’t be too difficult given that their credits should be pretty easy to distinguish, but it will be time consuming, so give me a few weeks. I’ll also need to update the branch statistics page.
But for now, let’s just celebrate the expansion as a further recognition of the important work that these artists provide for our cinematic enjoyment!
At the beginning of December, the Academy Members Project reached a milestone of having identified 50% of the members of AMPAS.
I’m happy to report that in the two months since, we have added an additional 70 new names! Among them is Kurtwood Smith, known for his work in RoboCop and -- you guessed it -- That '70s Show.
These additions bring our grand total to 3,451 Academy members, which is 51.8% of the 6,663 total voting, associate and retired members. With any luck, the next month between now and the ceremony will be just as productive and revelatory.
As always, we welcome your input. Additions, suggestions, corrections and verifications may be submitted in the comments section, or by emailing nevertooearlymoviepredictions@gmail.com.
Check out all the names on the alphabetical pages below:
As some of you already know, I’m organizing “The LAMB Devours The Oscars” event for the Large Association Of Movie Blogs. It’s one of the ways that I can help out the organization without losing too much of my focus on awards coverage. It’s also a form of community service, and perhaps will go a small way towards making up for the fact that I haven’t been commenting on everyone’s blogs the way I used to.
From now through Oscar night, the series will feature 32 different authors giving their perspective on all the categories and best picture nominees. Some of them share my reverence for these events; others help us take a humorous step back from the drama of it all, but all of them are worthy of your attention. The first several entries are already up, and you can keep watching as all of them come in by visiting The LAMB Devours The Oscars page.
And for those film bloggers who haven’t done so yet, I encourage you to Join The LAMB. It’s a great community and a great way to get connected with others who share your passion for the cinematic arts.
This year’s Oscar nominations brought many surprises, and the one that has been heating up the airwaves is the absence of Kathryn Bigelow, Ben Affleck, Tom Hooper and Quentin Tarantino from the Directors race (usually in that order).
Explanations and conspiracy theories immediately sprang up. Maybe the Academy -- and by extension the entire Hollywood establishment -- simply hates all of them, despite the fact that they all already have Oscars on their mantels at home. Maybe the new online voting system confused too many voters. Maybe the earlier deadlines meant that people didn’t get to see all the films. Maybe terrorism, torture, slavery, and (apparently) the French revolution were too politically charged for the overly sensitive elite. Maybe the director’s branch is actively trying to keep down women. And actors. And gunslingers. And musicals. If you pour through the 85 year history of the Academy Awards, you are certain to find enough data points to support any one of these hypotheses. I even take some of these trends into account when making my predictions.
But there are two other explanations that I’d like to explore. The first is the mathematical certainty that in a close race someone is going to be left out. After all, few people are arguing that the films of Spielberg, Lee, Russell, Haneke or Zeitlin were unworthy of recognition. It’s simply that it’s been a great year for film. Which suggests that the others weren’t “snubbed” -- a word whose definition includes disdain or uncordial intent -- so much as that they barely missed the cut off. For all we know, they may have composed a four-way tie for sixth place, with each of them receiving as little as one vote fewer than the fifth place nominee.
On Oscar night, when only one person can take home the statue, everyone says that it’s “an honor to be nominated.” In a season where there’s an embarrassment of riches, perhaps we should start approaching nomination morning with the understanding that “It’s an honor NOT to be nominated too”, as long as people keep talking about you afterward.
But there is a second theory that I’d like to explore. I know that it will be a painful one for many people, but I can’t shake the feeling that there’s some truth to it. What if the directing nominations accurately reflect what the Academy’s best picture nominees would have been if there were only five? What if the accountants at Pricewaterhouse Coopers aren’t wringing their hands about the directors, but rather celebrating the fact that the expanded best picture field allowed for more popular films to make the cut? What if the post-analysis lesson isn’t that something new has broken, but rather that something has finally been fixed?
It sounds absurd at first to think that favorites like Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, Les Miserables and (to a lesser extent) Django Unchained wouldn’t have made a five film lineup. But let’s remember why they expanded the field to begin with: They were worried that the public’s favorite films -- even those that had garnered significant critical support -- were getting shut out of the nominations. To make matters worse (from the crass perspective of tv ratings), they were losing those slots to films that were independent, artistic or even (gasp!) foreign.
Independent. Artistic. Foreign. Beasts Of The Southern Wild fits the first two criteria, and Amour fits all three. Combine that with Lincoln’s 12 nominations, Life Of Pi’s 11 nominations, and Silver Lining Playbook’s eight nominations -- including four acting nods -- and this scenario starts to resemble Oscar’s historical record. It suggests that the split between the Academy’s choices and the public’s is still just as alive as ever, only now that split is playing out in the director’s race instead of the Big Kahuna.
The criticism the Academy is getting for their directing picks is but a minor rumble compared to the howling that we might have seen under the old best picture rules. A howling, by the way, that might have cut into audience share and advertising dollars in a way that a directorial skirmish never will. Somewhere tonight there is an Academy official who knows the score. They aren’t complaining. They’re just glad there were nine. .
The name that I most want to hear on Oscar morning is Quvenzhane Wallis for Beasts Of The Southern Wild. Unfortunately, I just don’t see that happening at this point in the race. Too many groups chickened out and gave her the debut or breakthrough award, without also recognizing her in the main category.
1. Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty (Predicted Winner) 2. Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook 3. Naomi Watts in The Impossible 4. Marion Cotillard in Rust And Bone 5. Emmanuelle Riva in Amour
Alternates: 6. Helen Mirren in Hitchcock 7. Quvenzhane Wallis in Beasts Of The Southern Wild 8. Rachel Weisz in The Deep Blue Sea 9. Maggie Smith in Quartet 10. Judi Dench in Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 11. Keira Knightley in Anna Karanina 12. Emayatzy E. Corinealdi in Middle Of Nowhere 13. Mary Elizabeth Winstead in Smashed 14. Laura Linney in Hyde Park On Hudson 15. Meryl Streep in Hope Springs 16. Michelle Williams in Take This Waltz 17. Halle Berry in Cloud Atlas 18. Viola Davis in Won’t Back Down 19. Emily Blunt in Salmon Fishing In The Yemen 20. Jennifer Lawrence in The Hunger Games 21. Andrea Riseborough in Shadow Dancer 22. Leslie Mann in This Is Forty 23. Kara Hayward in Moonrise Kingdom 24. Elle Fanning in Ginger And Rosa 25. Diane Kruger in Farewell My Queen
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Lead Actress predictions for other yearsHERE. Or check out theLead Actor,Supporting Actor andSupporting Actress predictions. See predictions for other categories at the 85th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th .
I think this race comes down to Skyfall and Les Miserables. Will they go with the artist that is hot right now for the win? Or will they want to honor the people who composed Les Miserables, even if the song they are rewarding isn’t the most famous? I find myself going back and forth between these two nearly every day, but for now I’ll bet on Adele for the win.
1. Skyfall from Skyfall (Predicted Winner) 2. Suddenly from Les Miserables 3. Learn Me Right from Brave 4. Ancora Qui from Django Unchained 5. Pi’s Lullaby from Life Of Pi
Alternates: 6. Everybody Needs A Friend from Ted 7. Still Alive from Paul Williams Is Still Alive 8. From Here To The Moon And Back from Joyful Noise 9. Freedom from Django Unchained 10. Song Of The Lonely Mountain from The Hobbit 11. Touch The Sky from Brave 12. Breath Of Life from Snow White And The Huntsman 13. Strange Love from Frankenweenie 14. Who Did That To You from Django Unchained 15. When Can I See You Again from Wreck-It Ralph 16. Snake Eyes from Promised Land 17. For You from Act Of Valor 18. This Gift from The Odd Life Of Timothy Green 19. Cosmonaut from Lawless 20. Still Dream from Rise Of The Guardians 21. Abraham’s Daughter from The Hunger Games 22. Dull Tool from This Is Forty 23. Before My Time from Chasing Ice 24. Ladies Of Tampa from Magic Mike 25. Love Always Comes As A Surprise from Madagascar 3 26. Wide Awake from Katy Perry: Part Of Me 27. Not Running from Stand Up Guys 28. One Wing from Sparkle 29. Anything Made Of Paper from West Of Memphis 30. Let It Rain from Being Flynn
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Original Song predictions for other yearsHERE. If you love music, you might also want to check out theOriginal Score predictions. See predictions for other categories at the 85th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th .
It’s always dangerous to predict a split between the best picture and best director winners, but I’m going to do it anyway. If the torture politics continue, it’s possible that the Academy will reward her for the technical skill of bringing Zero Dark Thirty together, while granting the best picture award to Ben Affleck’s Argo for all the joy it brought us.
1. Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty (Predicted Winner) 2. Steven Spielberg for Lincoln 3. Ben Affleck for Argo 4. Ang Lee for Life Of Pi 5. Tom Hooper for Les Miserables
Alternates: 6. Michael Haneke for Amour 7. Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained 8. David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook 9. Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master 10. Benh Zeitlin for Beasts Of The Southern Wild 11. Wes Anderson for Moonrise Kingdom 12. Joe Wright for Anna Karenina 13. Robert Zemeckis for Flight 14. Christopher Nolan for The Dark Knight Rises 15. Tom Tykwer, Lana Wachowski and Andy Wachowski for Cloud Atlas 16. Juan Antonio Bayona for The Impossible 17. Peter Jackson for The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 18. Ben Lewin for The Sessions 19. Sam Mendes for Skyfall 20. Kim Ki-Duk for Pieta
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Best Director predictions for other yearsHERE. See predictions for other categories at the 85th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th .
It seems crazy to leave out Life Of Pi here, but I have a feeling that the Writers Branch might feel the film is really more of a visual feast than a scripted one. I also feel like the writers are more likely to acknowledge the work of Perks and Beasts, and I’ll be most thankful if they reward both!
1. Lincoln (Predicted Winner) 2. Argo 3. Silver Linings Playbook 4. Beasts Of The Southern Wild 5. The Perks Of Being A Wallflower
Alternates: 6. Life Of Pi 7. Les Miserables 8. The Sessions 9. Anna Karenina 10. Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 11. Cloud Atlas 12. Skyfall 13. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 14. Rust And Bone 15. The Dark Knight Rises 16. This Is Forty 17. Hitchcock 18. Salmon Fishing In The Yemen 19. On The Road 20. 21 Jump Street 21. Frankenweenie 22. Quartet 23. Killing Them Softly 24. The Avengers 25. Cosmopolis
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Adapted Screenplay predictions for other yearsHERE. Or check out theOriginal Screenplay predictions. See predictions for other categories at the 85th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th .
1. Zero Dark Thirty (Predicted Winner) 2. Moonrise Kingdom 3. Django Unchained 4. The Master 5. Amour
Alternates: 6. Looper 7. Flight 8. Seven Psychopaths 9. The Intouchables 10. Arbitrage 11. Keep The Lights On 12. Middle Of Nowhere 13. The Impossible 14. Magic Mike 15. Ruby Sparks 16. The Cabin In The Woods 17. Brave 18. Ted 19. Promised Land 20. Take This Waltz 21. Safety Not Guaranteed 22. Celeste And Jesse Forever 23. Your Sister’s Sister 24. Compliance 25. Wreck-It Ralph
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Original Screenplay predictions for other yearsHERE. Or check out theAdapted Screenplay predictions. See predictions for other categories at the 85th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
1. Lincoln (Predicted Winner) 2. Argo 3. Life Of Pi 4. Anna Karenina 5. Beasts Of The Southern Wild
Alternates: 6. Zero Dark Thirty 7. The Master 8. Cloud Atlas 9. Skyfall 10. On The Road 11. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 12. The Impossible 13. Frankenweenie 14. The Dark Knight Rises 15. Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 16. Brave 17. Hitchcock 18. Snow White And The Huntsman 19. Rise Of The Guardians 20. Flight 21. Wreck-It Ralph 22. The Hunger Games 23. Dark Shadows 24. The Sessions 25. Prometheus
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Original Score predictions for other yearsHERE. Like words with your music? Check out theOriginal Song predictions. See predictions for other categories at the 85th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th .
