85th Oscar Lead Actor Updates (12/14/2012)

In the 1971, George C. Scott famously refused to accept his third Oscar nomination, claiming that he did not wish to be in competition with fellow actors. The Academy didn’t care, and awarded him an Oscar for Patton anyway, along with an additional nomination the following year for his role in The Hospital.

I’m not going to draw some strained comparison about how this year could also mark Joaquin Phoenix’s third nomination, or try to compare his (now retracted) comments about Oscar campaigning to Scott’s outright rejection of the awards. After all, Scott’s film won 7 Oscars that year (something The Master is unlikely to do), and his closest counterpart in this year’s race is probably Daniel Day Lewis, given that both of their films are homages to American heroes who are so famous that their last name alone can sell a movie.

All I’m suggesting is that Joaquin’s absence from the Screen Actors Guild awards this week isn’t necessarily determinative of what the Academy will do, and that I think many pundits are reading too much into it. In what has basically become a six man race for the nomination, it only takes a few votes to push any one of them above the others, and at the moment I think that The Sessions is the most likely film to fall victim to the aggressive campaign tactics that Phoenix railed against.

Further down the list I’ve tried to anticipate the types of films that might make a surprise appearance on BAFTA’s nomination list and given them a slight boost. But with Daniel Day-Lewis playing Lincoln, there’s not really much chance of the famed British Block voting any differently than the most vehement of American patriots.

NOTE: My apologies that the rows of images don't show up below. For some reason Blogger isn’t transferring my images. I’ll update this page if I somehow am able to solve the problem. For now, enjoy the predictions!

1. Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 2)
2. Hugh Jackman for Les Miserables (previous rank 4)
3. Joaquin Phoenix for The Master (previously listed as supporting, rank 3)
4. Bradley Cooper for The Silver Linings Playbook (previous rank 48)
5. Denzel Washington for Flight (previous rank 5)

Alternates:
6. John Hawkes for The Sessions (previous rank 1)
7. RIchard Gere for Arbitrage (previous rank 15)
8. Anthony Hopkins for Hitchcock (New)
9. Jamie Foxx for Django Unchained (previous rank 8)
10. Jean-Louis Trintignant for Amour (New)
11. Bill Murray for Hyde Park On Hudson (previous rank 6)
12. Suraj Sharma for Life Of Pi (previous rank 12)
13. Ben Affleck for Argo (previous rank 25)
14. Matt Damon for Promised Land (New)
15. Omar Sy for The Intouchables (New)
16. Tom Hanks for Cloud Atlas (previous rank 33)
17. Jake Gyllenhaal for End Of Watch (New)
18. Colin Farrell for Seven Psychopaths (previous rank 27)
19. Denis Lavant for Holy Motors (New)
20. Daniel Craig for Skyfall (New)
21. Jack Black for Bernie (New)
22. Brad Pitt for Killing Them Softly (previous rank 14)
23. Tom Holland for The Impossible (New)
24. Logan Lerman for The Perks Of Being A Wallflower (New)
25. Ewan McGregor for Salmon Fishing In The Yemen (previous rank 42)
26. Thure Lindhardt for Keep The Lights On (New)
27. Tommy Lee Jones for Hope Springs (previous rank 10)
28. Liam Neeson for The Grey (previous rank 43)
29. Martin Freeman for The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (previous rank 50)
30. Clint Eastwood for Trouble With The Curve (previous rank 20)
31. Gael Garcia Bernal for No (New)
32. Matthias Schoenaerts for Rust And Bone (New)
33. Mads Mikkelson for A Royal Affair (New)
34. Alan Cumming for Any Day Now (New)
35. Frank Langella for Robot And Frank (previous rank 35)
36. Sam Riley for On The Road (previous rank 21)
37. John Magaro for Not Fade Away (New)
38. Adrien Brody for Detachment (New)
39. Mike Birbiglia for Sleepwalk With Me (New)
40. Aaron Paul for Smashed (New)
41. Christopher Walken for A Late Quartet (New)
42. Christian Bale for The Dark Knight Rises (New)
43. Joseph Gordon-Levitt for Looper (New)
44. Paul Rudd for This Is Forty (New)
45. Tom Hardy in Lawless (previous rank 13)
46. Wendell Pierce in Four (New)
47. Matthew McConaughey in Killer Joe (New)
48. Christopher Plummer in Barrymore (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 31)
49. Robert Pattinson in Cosmopolis (previous rank 37)
50. Jared Gilman in Moonrise Kingdom (New)

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Lead Actor predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Lead Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress predictions that will be updated soon!
See predictions for other categories at the 85th Oscars HERE.
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