Tuesday, September 27, 2011

LAMBS In The Director’s Chair: Michael Mann

For those who don’t know, The LAMB has a series where bloggers get together each month to write reviews of a particular director’s work. Here at Never Too Early Movie Predictions, I look forward instead of backward, so I thought it might be fun to look ahead at what the director of the month has coming up on his calendar for the next several years.

This month’s director is Michael Mann. As a director, Mann has been Oscar nominated once for his directorial work in The Insider. The film earned a total of seven nominations, including Mann for Best Picture, Best Director and Adapted Screenplay, plus four more for Lead Actor Russell Crowe, Cinematography, Film Editing and Sound.

Mann was also nominated as a producer of The Aviator, which received 11 nominations and won 5 of those. Mann also directed Collateral (nominated for Film Editing and Supporting Actor for Jamie Foxx), Ali (nominated for Lead Actor Will Smith and Supporting Actor Jon Voight), and The Last Of The Mohicans (which won best Sound.)

So it is not too much of a stretch for an Oscar prediction blog to look at what the Mann (pun intended) might have coming up:


Mann’s current project is Luck, an upcoming HBO series involving characters at a horse racing track. It will star Dustin Hoffman and Nick Nolte. Do I smell an Emmy in the future?

As a producer, Mann is listed for Texas Killing Fields (2011), a crime drama which is being directed by his daughter, Ami Canaan Mann, and features Sam Worthington, Jessica Chastain, Chloe Moretz and Jeffrey Dean Morgan. I’m not currently predicting this for any Oscar love, but perhaps Ami Canaan Mann will surprise us?

Damage Control will be a sports drama that stars Jamie Foxx as an agent trying to give his troubled players a positive image. After his work in Any Given Sunday, Foxx should know something about that. Foxx received a nomination the last time he worked with Mann in Collateral, but it was the same year as his win for Ray, so it’s hard to know whether they will repeat.

Waiting for Robert Capa. Set during the Spanish Civil war, this film follows the romance of war photographers Robert Capa and Gerda Taro. The film is based upon the book by Susana Fortes and Gemma Arterton is attached. Epic love stories, set during war, based on real characters. It definitely has award possibilities.

Death Of A Dissident is a spy thriller which looks at the life of Russian KJB agent Alexander Litvinenko, and explores the change in power structure that occurred as the Soviet KBG was converted to the Russian FSB. The book that the film is based upon was written by Alex Goldfarb and Litvinenko’s widow, Marina Litvinenko. I’m thinking that this could become just another spy thriller, but if it really delves deeply into systems changes and power structures, there could be some possibilities.

An Untitled 1930’s Noir Project being written by John Logan and starring Leonardo DiCaprio as a private detective on an old MGM lot hired to investigate whether a starlet murdered her husband. We should never discount DiCaprio (especially since I’m predicting that he will have won for J. Edgar by this time), plus there could be some art direction and costume nominations here.

Big Tuna follows Tony Accardo as an elderly Chicago mobster preparing his successor Sam Giancana. Sheldon Turner is writing the script for the biopic. The academy didn’t take to Public Enemies, but perhaps Mann has something new up his sleeve?

Gold, depending upon which synopsis you believe, is a contemporary thriller about the search for precious metals and/or a look at the biggest securities exchange fraud committed in the United States. Based on a script from Patrick Massett and John Zinman, the film is being produced with Paul Haggis and Michael Nozik. Could this do for economics what The Insider did for big tobacco?

Agincourt, based on the novel by Bernard Cornwell, follows a fugitive archer during one of the most famous battles of Europe. The screenplay is being written by Michael Hirst. I would expect many nominations for Art Direction, Cinematography and Costumes here, along with epic battle scenes.

Batam is rumored to also be on the horizon, but I haven’t been able to find out much about this film, which presumably is set on the island in Indonesia.

Frankie Machine, based on the book by Don Winslow, was rumored to star Robert DeNiro as a retired mob hitman, but there has been no news about it for several years, so it may not happen.



So readers, do you think that any of these films have what it takes to make it into future Oscar races? Let me know in the comments!

Read what my fellow LAMBS have written about Michael Mann HERE.
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Monday, September 26, 2011

Updates To My Track Record. 84th Oscar Foreign Language Race

More countries have announced their submissions for the 84th Oscar Foreign Language race. I am keeping track of which ones I got correct on my Track Record Page, and my current score is 41.4%. I will do another set of predictions for that race once all submissions have been announced.

To see My Track Record page, go HERE, or look for it in the upper right hand corner of this blog.
To see my previous predictions for the 84th Foreign Language race, go HERE.

Saturday, September 24, 2011

84th Oscar Best Picture Updates (2011-2012 Awards Season) (9/24/11)

Here are today’s predictions for the 84th Oscar Best Picture race (2011-2012 awards season.) Many people are predicting War Horse or The Descendants for the win, but Spielberg has missed before, and the trailer for the Descendants doesn’t look like an Oscar winner to me, despite what critics who have seen the movie say, so I’m going with The Artist for now. More fun thoughts: I still say that Tree of Life can get 5% of the necessary votes; I wonder if voters will have a difficult time correctly writing the Extremely Long and Incredibly Complicated title; and if The Descendants gets in but The Ides Of March misses, does that mean the academy thinks that Clooney should stick to acting instead of directing?



1. The Artist (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 6)
2. The Descendants (previous rank 8)
3. War Horse (previous rank 2)
4. The Help (previous rank 21)
5. J. Edgar (previous rank 5)
6. The Ides Of March (previous rank 4)
7. Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previous rank 9)
8. The Tree Of Live (previous rank 3)

Then:
9. Moneyball (previous rank 14)
10. Midnight In Paris (previous rank 13)



Alternates:
11. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (previous rank 18)
12. Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (previous rank 7)
13. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (previous rank 12)
14. A Dangerous Method (previous rank 1)
15. Martha Marcy May Marlene (previous rank 23)
16. My Week With Marilyn (previous rank 26)
17. Young Adult (previous rank 24)
18. Hugo (previous rank 10)
19. The Iron Lady (previous rank 11)
20. Contagion (previous rank 15)

21. We Bought A Zoo (previous rank 22)
22. Like Crazy (previous rank 17)
23. Carnage (previous rank 16)
24. Drive (previous rank 38)
25. Warrior (previous rank 50)
26. Shame (previous rank 41)
27. La Piel Que Habito (The Skin I Live In) (previous rank 19)
28. The Adventures Of Tintin: The Secret Of The Unicorn (previous rank 28)
29. We Need To Talk About Kevin (previous rank 29)
30. Super 8 (previous rank 20)
31. Albert Nobbs (previous rank 27)
32. 50/50 (previous rank 43)
33. In The Land Of Blood And Honey (previous rank 45)
34. Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes  (New)
35. Melancholia (previous rank 40)

36. Take Shelter (previous rank 36)
37. Pariah (previous rank 33)
38. Coriolanus (previous rank 39)
39. Jane Eyre (previous rank 32)
40. Rampart (previous rank 420
41. The Rum Diary (previous rank 37)
42. Wuthering Heights (New)
43. Anonymous (New)
44. Take This Waltz (New)
45. In Time (New)
46. The Lady (New)
47. Beginners (previous rank 30)
48. Win Win (previous rank 31)
49. One Day (previous rank 34)
50. Red Tails (previous rank 35)

As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Best Picture predictions for other years HERE.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  

Friday, September 23, 2011

85th Oscar Original Screenplay Updates (2012-2013 Awards Season) (9/23/11)

Here are today’s rankings for the 85th Oscar Original Screenplay race (2012-2013 awards season), with previous rankings shown in parenthesis.

The biggest loser this time around was Paul Webb, who wrote the screenplay for Lee Daniel’s Selma. In my last set of predictions it was the predicted winner, but the project is apparently on hold indefinitely, so I have removed it from the list for now. If the project picks up again, expect it to reappear high on my lists.



1. Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained (Predicted Winner) (New)
2. Brenda Chapman and Irene Mecchi for Brave (previous rank 14)
3. Jonathan Jakubowicz for Hands Of Stone (previous rank 2)
4. Richard Nelson for Hyde Park On Hudson (previous rank 4)
5. Woody Allen for Bop Decameron (previous rank 5)



Alternates:
6. Kar Wai Wong, Xu Haofeng and Jingzhi Zou for The Grandmasters (previous rank 6)
7. Vanessa Taylor for Great Hope Springs (previous rank 28)
8. Jeremy Walters for Dali (previous rank 3)
9. Mark Boal for Triple Frontier (previous rank 8)
10. Robby Benson, Tom Ellis and Shawn Powell for Keeper Of The Pinstripes (previous rank 7)
11. Andy Wachowski and Lana Wachowski for Cobalt Neural 9 (previous rank 9)
12. Gretchen Dyer for The Playroom (previous rank 10)
13. Sergio Leone for Leningrad (previous rank 11)
14. Rafael J. Noble and Sharon Zimmer for When We Were Pirates (previous rank 12)
15. Ken Carter and Anne Haywood-Carter for Savannah (previous rank 13)
16. John Jopson for The Absinthe Drinkers (previous rank 15)
17. Ava DuVernay for Middle Of Nowhere (New)
18. Damon Lindelof and John Spaihts for Prometheus (previous rank 23)
19. Sergio Sanchez for The Impossible (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 49)
20. Rian Jordan for Looper (previous rank 27)
21. James Ponsoldt for Smashed (New)
22. Ben Livingston and Hannah Shakespeare for The Raven (previous rank 38)
23. Hossein Amini and Christopher Morgan for 47 Ronin (previous rank 32)
24. Lem Dobbs for Haywire (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 26)
25. Peter Morgan for 360 (previous rank 48)
26. George Lucas, John Ridley and Aaron McGruder for Red Tails (New)
27. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola for Moonrise Kingdom (previous rank 25)
28. Alex Kurtzman, Jody Lambert and Roberto Orci for Welcome To People (previous rank 37)
29. Stephen Lloyd Jackson for David Is Dying (New)
30. Edmond Wong for The Monkey King (previous rank 17)
31. Wentworth Miller and Erin Cressida Wilson for Stoker (previous rank 33)
32. Rob Reiner and Guy Thomas for The Third Act (previous rank 18)
33. Terrence Malick for The Burial (aka Untitled Terrence Malick Project) (previous rank 29)
34. Andy Garcia and Hilary Hemingway for Hemingway & Fuentes (previous rank 24)
35. Lawrence Kasdan and Meg Kasdan for Darling Companion (previous rank 21)
36. Hiro Mauda for Ashita Manana (previous rank 19)
37. John Gatins for Flight (New)
38. Qasim Basir for Destined (New)
39. Brin Hill and Daniel Barnz for Steel Town (New)
40. Sacha Baron Cohen, Alec Berg, David Mandel and Jeff Schaffer for The Dictator (previous rank 42)
41. Ash Baron-Cohen for The Blind Bastard Club (previous rank 22)
42. Will Aldis for Keep Coming Back (previous rank 41)
43. Brian Savelson for Family Tree (New)
44. Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron and Rodrigo Garcia for Gravity (previous rank 34)
45. Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain and Craig Davidson for Rust And Bone (New)
46. David McKenna for Pablo Escobar (previous rank 30)
47. Emma Thompson for Effie (previous rank 20)
48. Christopher D. Parker and Victor Dowell for To Hell And Back (previous rank 26)
49. Nick Cassavetes and Heather Wahlquist for Yellow (previous rank 31)
50. So Yong Kim for For Ellen (previous rank 16)


As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
See Original Screenplay predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Adapted Screenplay predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 85th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th  

Thursday, September 22, 2011

84th Oscar Lead Actor Updates (2011-2012 Awards Season) (9/22/11)

As promised earlier, here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Lead Actor race, with previous rankings shown in parenthesis. Based upon your recommendations, I hope to see both Moneyball and Drive this weekend, so we’ll see if I’m completely embarrassed by this list in just a few days!

Perhaps the most exciting movement is for Michael Fassbender in Shame. It is apparently a fabulous performance, with only the NC-17 rating potentially scaring off some Academy members. Meanwhile, the trailer for J. Edgar has been released. While it has gotten mixed reactions, I still think that Leonardo has a good chance at a nomination, and from there it is all about the campaigns.



1. Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1)
2. George Clooney in The Descendants (previous rank 4)
3. Jean Dujardin in The Artist (previous rank 7)
4. Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (previous rank 5)
5. Brad Pitt in Moneyball (previous rank 10)



Alternates:
6. Michael Fassbender in Shame (previous rank 26)
7. Michael Shannon in Take Shelter (preious rank 11)
8. Ryan Gosling in The Ides Of March (previous rank 2)
9. Joseph Gordon-Levitt in 50/50 (previous rank 6)
10. Ryan Gosling in Drive (previous rank 34)
11. Tom Hardy in Warrior previous rank 35)
12. Matt Damon in We Bought A Zoo (previous rank 13)
13. Michael Fassbender in A Dangerous Method (previous rank 3)
14. Antonio Banderas in La Piel Que Habito (The Skin I Live In) (previous rank 8)
15. Jeremy Irvine in War Horse (previous rank 24)
16. Demian Bichir in A Better Life (previous rank 28)
17. Joel Edgerton in Warrior (previously listed as supporting, rank 40)
18. Woody Harrelson in Rampart (previous rank 16)
19. Johnny Depp in The Rum Diary (previous rank 9)
20. John C. Reilly in Carnage (previous rank 12)
21. Ralph Feinnes in Coriolanus (previous rank 27)
22. Brad Pitt in The Tree Of Life (previous rank 20)
23. Thomas Horn in Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previous rank 21)
24. Hunter McCracken in The Tree Of Life (previous rank 25)
25. Christoph Waltz in Carnage (previously listed as supporting, rank 7)

26. Laurence Fishburne in Contagion (previously listed as supporting, rank 10)
27. Anton Yelchin in Like Crazy (previous rank 15)
28. Daniel Craig in The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (previous rank 18)
29. Tahar Rahim in Black Gold (previous rank 17)
30. Owen Wilson in Midnight In Paris (previous rank 50)
31. Christopher Plummer in Barrymore (New)
32. Paul Giamatti in Win Win (previous rank 29)
33. Rhys Ifans in Anonymous (New)
34. Dominic Cooper in The Devil’s Double (previous rank 43)
35. Ewan McGregor in Beginners (previous rank 19)
36. Matt Damon in Contagion (previous rank 23)
37. Evan Ross in Mooz-lum (previous rank 22)
38. Asa Butterfield in Hugo (previous rank 36)
39. Anthony Mackie in Bolden! (previous rank 30)
40. Terrene Howard in Winnie (previously listed as supporting, rank 47)
41. Luis Tosar in Tambien La Lluvia (Even The Rain) (previous rank 40)
42. David Hyde Pierce in The Perfect Host (previous rank 31)
43. Eddie Redmayne in My Week With Marilyn (previous rank 37)
44. Peter Mullan in Tyrannosaur (previous rank 39)
45. John C. Reilly in We Need To Talk About Kevin (previously listed as supporting, rank 14)
46. Goran Kostic in In The Land Of Blood And Honey (previous rank 46)
47. Michael Fassbender in Jane Eyre (New)
48. James Howson in Wuthering Heights (New)
49. Jim Sturgess in One Day (previous rank 45)
50. Cuba Gooding Jr. in Red Tails (previous rank 33

See Lead Actor predictions for other years HERE.
Or check out the Lead Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress predictions.
See predictions for other categories at the 84th Oscars HERE.
Switch to another year: 84th,  85th,  86th,  87th,  88th,  89th