I realize that I should have posted this Sunday night, but better late than never.
This year I correctly predicted 19 out of the 24 winners for the Oscars.
Here’s a little bit about the five categories I got wrong, and what lessons I’ll be taking into next year:
Lead Actress: Jennifer Lawrence. I had went with Emmanuelle Riva’s amazing performance in Amour, but noted that I was probably underestimating Harvey Weinstein’s campaigning skills. I was right about the second half.
Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz. I had predicted Tommy Lee Jones, but knew that Waltz had won the BAFTA and was gaining momentum. Notice that Django Unchained was also one of Harvey Weinstein’s films, so I really should have no excuse.
Production Design: Lincoln. I had gone with Anna Karenina, but it makes complete sense that Lincoln needed to win something other than the acting award, and this fits the bill just fine.
Sound Editing: Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty tied. And I was wrong on both counts, having thought that Life Of Pi would continue its tech category sweep here. On the plus side, I am now more convinced than ever that a significant number of the voters do indeed know the difference between sound editing and sound mixing, and my prior writing on the types of films that each category rewards has been confirmed again!
Documentary Short: Inocente. I had predicted Open Heart as the documentary that had the deepest political roots, but in my review of all five documentary shorts I noted that Inocente was the feel-good movie of the nominees, and also focused on an artist, so I’m quite pleased with its win in this category.
So, how did you do? Did you get more than me? Any theories that you take away from the year, or things you’ve learned that you’d like to share? Let me know in the comments. .
Here are my final Oscar predictions for the 85th Academy Awards.
Best Picture: Argo Director: Ang Lee for Life Of Pi Lead Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln Lead Actress: Emmanuelle Riva for Amour Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables Original Screenplay: Django Unchained Adapted Screenplay: Argo Cinematography: Life Of Pi Film Editing: Argo Visual Effects: Life Of Pi Production Design: Anna Karenina Costume Design: Anna Karenina Makeup And Hairstyling: Les Miserables Original Song: Skyfall Original Score: Life Of Pi Sound Editing: Life Of Pi Sound Mixing: Les Miserables Animated Feature: Brave Documentary Feature: Searching For Sugar Man Foreign Language Film: Amour Animated Short: Paperman Documentary Short: Open Heart Live Action Short: Curfew
Most likely to make me look like an amateur: Silver Linings Playbook. More specifically, Harvey Weinstein’s campaign machine that is behind Silver Linings Playbook, which could take awards for Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro, Director and Screenplay.
Predictions Tally: 5- Life Of Pi 3- Argo, Les Miserables 2- Amour, Anna Karenina, Lincoln 1- Brave, Curfew, Django Unchained, Open Heart, Paperman, Searching For Sugar Man, Skyfall .
The name that I most want to hear on Oscar morning is Quvenzhane Wallis for Beasts Of The Southern Wild. Unfortunately, I just don’t see that happening at this point in the race. Too many groups chickened out and gave her the debut or breakthrough award, without also recognizing her in the main category.
1. Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty (Predicted Winner) 2. Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook 3. Naomi Watts in The Impossible 4. Marion Cotillard in Rust And Bone 5. Emmanuelle Riva in Amour
Alternates: 6. Helen Mirren in Hitchcock 7. Quvenzhane Wallis in Beasts Of The Southern Wild 8. Rachel Weisz in The Deep Blue Sea 9. Maggie Smith in Quartet 10. Judi Dench in Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 11. Keira Knightley in Anna Karanina 12. Emayatzy E. Corinealdi in Middle Of Nowhere 13. Mary Elizabeth Winstead in Smashed 14. Laura Linney in Hyde Park On Hudson 15. Meryl Streep in Hope Springs 16. Michelle Williams in Take This Waltz 17. Halle Berry in Cloud Atlas 18. Viola Davis in Won’t Back Down 19. Emily Blunt in Salmon Fishing In The Yemen 20. Jennifer Lawrence in The Hunger Games 21. Andrea Riseborough in Shadow Dancer 22. Leslie Mann in This Is Forty 23. Kara Hayward in Moonrise Kingdom 24. Elle Fanning in Ginger And Rosa 25. Diane Kruger in Farewell My Queen
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Lead Actress predictions for other yearsHERE. Or check out theLead Actor,Supporting Actor andSupporting Actress predictions. See predictions for other categories at the 85th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th .
I think this race comes down to Skyfall and Les Miserables. Will they go with the artist that is hot right now for the win? Or will they want to honor the people who composed Les Miserables, even if the song they are rewarding isn’t the most famous? I find myself going back and forth between these two nearly every day, but for now I’ll bet on Adele for the win.
1. Skyfall from Skyfall (Predicted Winner) 2. Suddenly from Les Miserables 3. Learn Me Right from Brave 4. Ancora Qui from Django Unchained 5. Pi’s Lullaby from Life Of Pi
Alternates: 6. Everybody Needs A Friend from Ted 7. Still Alive from Paul Williams Is Still Alive 8. From Here To The Moon And Back from Joyful Noise 9. Freedom from Django Unchained 10. Song Of The Lonely Mountain from The Hobbit 11. Touch The Sky from Brave 12. Breath Of Life from Snow White And The Huntsman 13. Strange Love from Frankenweenie 14. Who Did That To You from Django Unchained 15. When Can I See You Again from Wreck-It Ralph 16. Snake Eyes from Promised Land 17. For You from Act Of Valor 18. This Gift from The Odd Life Of Timothy Green 19. Cosmonaut from Lawless 20. Still Dream from Rise Of The Guardians 21. Abraham’s Daughter from The Hunger Games 22. Dull Tool from This Is Forty 23. Before My Time from Chasing Ice 24. Ladies Of Tampa from Magic Mike 25. Love Always Comes As A Surprise from Madagascar 3 26. Wide Awake from Katy Perry: Part Of Me 27. Not Running from Stand Up Guys 28. One Wing from Sparkle 29. Anything Made Of Paper from West Of Memphis 30. Let It Rain from Being Flynn
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Original Song predictions for other yearsHERE. If you love music, you might also want to check out theOriginal Score predictions. See predictions for other categories at the 85th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th .
It’s always dangerous to predict a split between the best picture and best director winners, but I’m going to do it anyway. If the torture politics continue, it’s possible that the Academy will reward her for the technical skill of bringing Zero Dark Thirty together, while granting the best picture award to Ben Affleck’s Argo for all the joy it brought us.
1. Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty (Predicted Winner) 2. Steven Spielberg for Lincoln 3. Ben Affleck for Argo 4. Ang Lee for Life Of Pi 5. Tom Hooper for Les Miserables
Alternates: 6. Michael Haneke for Amour 7. Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained 8. David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook 9. Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master 10. Benh Zeitlin for Beasts Of The Southern Wild 11. Wes Anderson for Moonrise Kingdom 12. Joe Wright for Anna Karenina 13. Robert Zemeckis for Flight 14. Christopher Nolan for The Dark Knight Rises 15. Tom Tykwer, Lana Wachowski and Andy Wachowski for Cloud Atlas 16. Juan Antonio Bayona for The Impossible 17. Peter Jackson for The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 18. Ben Lewin for The Sessions 19. Sam Mendes for Skyfall 20. Kim Ki-Duk for Pieta
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Best Director predictions for other yearsHERE. See predictions for other categories at the 85th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th .
It seems crazy to leave out Life Of Pi here, but I have a feeling that the Writers Branch might feel the film is really more of a visual feast than a scripted one. I also feel like the writers are more likely to acknowledge the work of Perks and Beasts, and I’ll be most thankful if they reward both!
1. Lincoln (Predicted Winner) 2. Argo 3. Silver Linings Playbook 4. Beasts Of The Southern Wild 5. The Perks Of Being A Wallflower
Alternates: 6. Life Of Pi 7. Les Miserables 8. The Sessions 9. Anna Karenina 10. Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 11. Cloud Atlas 12. Skyfall 13. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 14. Rust And Bone 15. The Dark Knight Rises 16. This Is Forty 17. Hitchcock 18. Salmon Fishing In The Yemen 19. On The Road 20. 21 Jump Street 21. Frankenweenie 22. Quartet 23. Killing Them Softly 24. The Avengers 25. Cosmopolis
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Adapted Screenplay predictions for other yearsHERE. Or check out theOriginal Screenplay predictions. See predictions for other categories at the 85th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th .
1. Zero Dark Thirty (Predicted Winner) 2. Moonrise Kingdom 3. Django Unchained 4. The Master 5. Amour
Alternates: 6. Looper 7. Flight 8. Seven Psychopaths 9. The Intouchables 10. Arbitrage 11. Keep The Lights On 12. Middle Of Nowhere 13. The Impossible 14. Magic Mike 15. Ruby Sparks 16. The Cabin In The Woods 17. Brave 18. Ted 19. Promised Land 20. Take This Waltz 21. Safety Not Guaranteed 22. Celeste And Jesse Forever 23. Your Sister’s Sister 24. Compliance 25. Wreck-It Ralph
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Original Screenplay predictions for other yearsHERE. Or check out theAdapted Screenplay predictions. See predictions for other categories at the 85th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th
1. Lincoln (Predicted Winner) 2. Argo 3. Life Of Pi 4. Anna Karenina 5. Beasts Of The Southern Wild
Alternates: 6. Zero Dark Thirty 7. The Master 8. Cloud Atlas 9. Skyfall 10. On The Road 11. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 12. The Impossible 13. Frankenweenie 14. The Dark Knight Rises 15. Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 16. Brave 17. Hitchcock 18. Snow White And The Huntsman 19. Rise Of The Guardians 20. Flight 21. Wreck-It Ralph 22. The Hunger Games 23. Dark Shadows 24. The Sessions 25. Prometheus
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Original Score predictions for other yearsHERE. Like words with your music? Check out theOriginal Song predictions. See predictions for other categories at the 85th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th .
The Academy did well with last year’s pick of A Separation. Let’s see how well they do this year!
1. Amour (Austria) (Predicted Winner) 2. The Intouchables (France) 3. A Royal Affair (Denmark) 4. No (Chile) 5. War Witch (Canada)
Alternates: 6. Kon-Tiki (Norway) 7. Sister (Switzerland) 8. The Deep (Iceland) 9. Beyond The Hills (Romania)
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Foreign Language predictions for other yearsHERE. See predictions for other categories at the 85th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th .
The Academy has instituted new rules for the Documentary category, which should allow for more members to participate in both the nominations and the final voting. This year’s short list suggests that the new rules might be working, as almost all of these films have quite a following.
Over time, the larger pool of voters should lead to more crowd pleasers. Let’s just hope they don’t shy away from equally qualified works that address hard-hitting or controversial issues.
1. Searching For Sugar Man (Predicted Winner) 2. The Invisible War 3. The Gatekeepers 4. Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence In The House Of God 5. How To Survive A Plague
Alternates: 6. The Imposter 7. 5 Broken Cameras 8. Chasing Ice 9. This Is Not A Film 10. Detropia 11. Bully 12. Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry 13. The House I Live In 14. The Waiting Room 15. Ethel
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Documentary feature predictions for other yearsHERE. If you’re really into documentaries, check out theDocumentary Shorts also. See predictions for other categories at the 85th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th .
Musicals have historically done extremely well in the Sound Mixing category, and my suspicion is that Les Miserables will carry that tradition on “one day more”, a song whose multiple voices actually demonstrates what this category is all about!
1. Les Miserables (Predicted Winner) 2. Zero Dark Thirty 3. Life Of Pi 4. Skyfall 5. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Alternates: 6. Django Unchained 7. Lincoln 8. The Dark Knight Rises 9. Argo 10. Prometheus 11. The Avengers 12. Flight 13. Snow White And The Huntsman 14. The Impossible 15. Wreck-It Ralph 16. The Amazing Spider-Man 17. The Bourne Legacy 18. Brave 19. Cloud Atlas 20. Looper 21. Rock Of Ages 22. Sparkle 23. Frankenweenie 24. Kon-Tiki 25. Men In Black 3
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Sound Mixing predictions for other yearsHERE. If you’re really into sound, check out theSound Editing predictions also. See predictions for other categories at the 85th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th .
If you need a refresher course on the difference between the two sound categories, check out my article on Sound Editing Versus Sound Mixing: An Oscar Guide. Right now I think that the recording and creation of all the animal and nature sounds in Life Of Pi will overtake the singing and explosions of Les Miserables, at least here in the Sound Editing category.
1. Life Of Pi (Predicted Winner) 2. Les Miserables 3. Zero Dark Thirty 4. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 5. The Dark Knight Rises
Alternates: 6. Skyfall 7. Django Unchained 8. The Avengers 9. Lincoln 10. Prometheus 11. Flight 12. The Impossible 13. Wreck-It Ralph 14. Looper 15. Snow White And The Huntsman 16. Brave 17. Kon-Tiki 18. Cloud Atlas 19. Battleship 20. Argo 21. The Bourne Legacy 22. The Amazing Spider-Man 23. John Carter 24. Frankenweenie 25. The Hunger Games
As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories! See Sound Editing predictions for other yearsHERE. If you’re really into sound, check out theSound Mixing predictions also. See predictions for other categories at the 85th OscarsHERE. Switch to another year:85th, 86th, 87th, 88th, 89th .
