85th Oscar Best Picture Updates (2012-2013 Awards Season) (11/29/12)

I’m back! And I suppose it is time that I started giving some attention to predictions again. I admit that the title of this blog “Never Too Early Movie Predictions” has been a bit misleading for the past eight months, as I’ve found myself much more interested in The Academy Members Project that I started back in April (I’ll be giving you a status update on that tomorrow). But with the announcement of the Gotham Awards and the Independent Spirit Award Nominations this week, I figured now was as good a time as any to start bringing truth back into this blog’s advertising. Just keep in mind that it will take me some time to get through all the categories that I’ve missed.

As in the past, I am going to include my previous rankings in parenthesis to show how wrong I got things before. In this case, it has been eleven months since I updated these, so there are a lot of changes. Still, several of today’s top competitors were on the radar a year ago, which probably says more about the Academy’s consistent tastes than my own predicting capabilities.

All listings are in order, with 8 being the number of films I currently think will make the 5% cut off. Enjoy!



1. Argo (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 18)
2. Lincoln (previous rank 1)
3. Les Miserables (previous rank 7)
4. Silver Linings Playbook (previous rank 16)
5. Life Of Pi (previous rank 6)
6. Beasts Of The Southern Wild (New)
7. Zero Dark Thirty (previous rank 36)
8. The Master (previous rank 2)

Then:
9. The Impossible (New)
10. Amour (New)



Alternates:
11. Moonrise Kingdom (previous rank 28)
12. Flight (previous rank 44)
13. Anna Karenina (previous rank 12)
14. Django Unchained (previous rank 5)
15. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (previous rank 4)
16. Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (New)
17. Hitchcock (New)
18. Cloud Atlas (previous rank 10)
19. Middle Of Nowhere (New)
20. Promised Land (New)
21. The Dark Knight Rises (previous rank 3)
22. Quartet (New)
23. The Sessions (New)
24. Skyfall (New)
25. Rust And Bone (New)

26. End Of Watch (New)
27. The Intouchables (New)
28. The Perks Of Being A Wallflower (New)
29. Not Fade Away (New)
30. Looper (New)
31. Arbitrage (New)
32. Bernie (New)
33. On The Road (previous rank 26)
34. Killing Them Softly (previously ranked 22)
35. Hope Springs (previous rank 30)
36. Keep The Lights On (New)
37. The Avengers (New)
38. The Loneliest Planet (New)
39. Trouble With The Curve (New)
40. Lawless (previous rank 25)
41. No (New)
42. Take This Waltz (previously listed in 84th Oscar race, rank 44)
43. Brave (previous rank 8)
44. The Paperboy (previous rank 31)
45. Cosmopolis (previous rank 19)
46. Prometheus (previous rank 27)
47. Hyde Park On Hudson (previous rank 13)
48. Holy Motors (New)
49. Song For Marion (New)
50. Your Sister’s Sister (New)


As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!   
See Best Picture predictions for other years HERE.
See predictions for other categories at the 85th Oscars HERE.
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